BA and BP will be out with their lists soon. The first outfit to put theirs out is mlb.com. A couple ex-BA guys, Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis, put that list together. Two Bravos made their top 100: Lucas Sims at 60 and Christian Bethancourt at 82.
Here is the entire list:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/...nt_id=66929504
thethe (01-25-2014)
Braves are going to have some big decisions to make if our good young players refuse to sign extensions. I really hope the Braves don't decide to go into some quasi competitive mode where they trade Heyward or Kimbrel for a meh major leaguer.... like they did with Tex. The fact that we only have 2 top 100 prospects and none in the top 50 shows that we need to rebuild the farm a bit after graduating so much top talent these past several years.
thank you weso1!
I think we are hitting a lull after some incredibly prolific years. The following players have come up in the past four years: Heyward, Kimbrel, Beachy, Freeman, Minor, Simmons, Avilan, Teheran, Gattis, Wood, Terdoslavich. That's an amazing haul. Our farm system also generated a number of prospects we used in trades, most notably Randall Delgado.
We'll be fine as long as the lull does not last more than a year. Looking at some of the things BA has written about Mauricio Cabrera, I think there is a good chance he'll be on their top 100 list. I also think they will rank Sims higher than mlb.com did. Peraza and/or Caratini will probably make the Top 100 in a year or two. And there are always a couple guys who go on to have fine major league careers in spite of never making a Top 100 list. I don't believe that any of Prado, Medlen, Gattis or Avilan ever made a Top 100 list. Wood never made a Top 100 either, but that was a function of his advancing to the majors so fast.
Last edited by nsacpi; 01-25-2014 at 12:08 PM.
Those 4 guys are great reasons to take prospectors opinions with a grain of salt. People seem to forget that everyone had pegged Medlen's upside as a 5th starter with the most likely outcome being a swingman since they didn't think he could hold up in a major league rotation. They ranked him the same as they do Hale and Martin now.Originally Posted by nsacpi
edit: I'm also optimistic about where our farm system will be at the end of next season. A lot of our top guys (Peraza, Sims, Cabrera, Caratini, Salazar, Reyes, Camargo) are all very young toolsy guys who could take huge steps forward next season. Plus the Braves seem to have a knack at finding diamonds in the rough so who knows who else will emerge.
Last edited by keithlaw; 01-25-2014 at 02:31 PM.
Yeah, these lists need to be viewed with a certain perspective. Here's a great article that tracks the success and bust rates of prospects on BA's Top 100 list. It breaks things down by position players and pitchers and shows how the bust and success rates have evolved over time.
http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2013...mckinneys.html
BP has Sims at 40 and Bethancourt at 87.
Here is their list:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=22670
In the comments section there was this about Jose Peraza:
How close was Jose Peraza to making the list?
Jan 27, 2014 07:25 AMlinkrating: 0
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff
(37601)
I'm a fan. Was on initial draft. Should jump this season.
Last edited by nsacpi; 01-27-2014 at 11:00 AM.
In what world was Lucas Sims not considered a highly touted pick.
I wouldn't really call him "highly-touted." He's pitched extremely well since being drafted and has certainly elevated his original expectations. Heyward was far more highly thought of at the time of draft, Sims was considered a bit of a reach by most publications and draft rankings, and he looks as good as a lot of players taken before him. Sims is making himself look like a stud.
Not many players taken at the tail end of the first round are can't miss highly touted guys.
Natural Immunity Croc
The question of how good a team is at drafting, signing and developing new players is pretty complicated. You can't really cite one player or one draft to make much of a point. You have to take into account the team's draft position. It is obviously much easier to build up a farm system if you have very high picks over a four or five year period. It is much harder to have a productive system without the benefit of those high picks. I'd say in the past six or seven years, the Braves and Cardinals farm systems stand out as being particularly productive without a run of very high picks. At the moment, the Red Sox have a highly rated farm system without the benefit of a string of high picks. It remains to be seen, however, if their current group of top prospects pan out.
Last edited by nsacpi; 01-29-2014 at 06:26 PM.
BA had him as a late first rounder and we took him at 21. Baseball draft rankings vary more than any other sports draft because your trying to project a player 4-5 years down the road as opposed to NFL or NBA where most picks go straight into the major leagues. Heyward was ranked top 3 by everyone, so no Sims isnt as highly touted as Heyward was but there was no one available to pick at 21 who was even remotely close to Heyward's level of hype. By Braves draft standards Sims is actually less of a reach than they normally take if you use BA rankings. Going down the 2012 draft list there isnt a prospect I would rather have over Sims until I get to the Alex Wood pick.
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It’s over."
Little Thethe Nov 19, 2020.
clvclv (01-30-2014)
I don't disagree with any of that, but he still wasn't highly-touted. Someone would have drafted him before 21 if they knew he was going to look as good as he as. He wasn't a stud prospect, but is gaining buzz for his season last year.
Basically, I'm referring to what nscapi posted about, like top 1-10 guys in the draft, where as I think if teams knew then what they now know, he'd have been drafted higher.
With these 3 that made the list and guys like Cabrera, Reyes and Hursh knocking on the door of making the Top 100 list with a good season the system is not in that bad. Also with 2 1st rd picks this season and Luis Barrios a highly touted IFA pick up last season our system could dramatically improve next season.
I don't remember anyone thinking Sims was a reach. It was a big deal when we drafted him and almost everyone was extremely happy. He was pretty highly touted.
Sims was certainly highly touted enough that a number of us (myself included) had our doubts that he'd fall to us. I was wanting us to take him or Wood, but figured only Wood to be available before hand. Then once Sims fell to us I wanted him and hoped that Wood would still be available next round. He was of course and so we got both, though that surprised me a bit too.
To sum it up, it was one of those rare drafts the Braves drafted exactly who I wanted with our first two picks.
Last edited by Braves1976; 01-30-2014 at 02:54 AM.
Can you really complain about Hursh and Caratini though?
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
Its just odd that narrative is so entrenched that Wren has had poor drafts since Clark left. Its just not true.
Natural Immunity Croc
No, I like the Hursh and Caratini picks too.
Your just arguing semantics. No Sims was not expected to go in the top 10. I can't say exactly where I would draw the line but anyone consideres a first round talent is a highly touted prospect. The only draft I would disagree with that is the NBA draft.
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