Let's talk about FA pitchers the Bravos might pursue. I think we have 25-30M to play with this off-season. The amount could grow if we made certain moves--trading Maybin for example.
I expect us to spend about half of that amount on a catcher and two or three bench/bullpen signings.
It is a buyer's market for FA starting pitchers and it is in that category that I expect us to make a major acquisition. For $12-18/year we can pick up a pitcher with expected production of about 2-3 WAR.
At the high end of that range perhaps above it you have Jordan Zimmerman. I'd be interested in him at 18M/year.
There are some attractive options that would cost a bit less than Zimmerman: Samardzija, Latos, Lackey, Kazmir. (Group 1)
A bit less attractive but within the projected 2-3 WAR: Buehrle, Chen, Iwakuma, Leake, Gallardo. (Group 2)
Below that range, but possibly worth kicking the tires on at a bargain price: Kennedy, Estrada, Lohse, Anderson. (Group 3).
I've long argued against signing pitchers to long-term deals. My opposition has somewhat softened because I think with the glut of FA starting pitchers it will be a buyers market and we can get a bargain this off-season. I still think it is important to limit the length of the contract. And I would insist on an option year to give us some upside. Ideally, 3 years plus an option year with most of these guys. And less with the older guys like Lackey and Buehrle.
My preference would be to get someone in Group 1 or even Zimmerman. I like Leake the most of the guys in Group 2. I think our being in the midst of a rebuilding period will make it more difficult to attract some of these candidates. The FO will have to do some sifting and identify those willing to consider a team in our situation. Above all I hope they are patient and go for value rather than a particular pitcher.
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