Kemp: 18M
Freeman: 20.5
Markakis 10.5
Teheran 6.3
Flowers 3
Total Guaranteed: 58.3M
Inciarte: 2M (estimated arb)
Viz: 2M (estimated arb)
Total Estimated Arb: 4M
Pre arb players: Peterson, Swanson, Albies, Garcia, Smith, Folty, Wisler, #5 starter, 5 relievers
Total pre arb (13 players): 7M
Sub-total for guaranteed, arb and pre-arb players (20 players): 69.3M
Let's say our opening day payroll is 120M. That would leave about 51M for a catcher, a starting pitcher, a veteran reliever, 2 bench players, and maybe an upgrade at third.
Here is one possible scenario:
McCann 17M (in this scenario we take on his full salary to minimize the quality of prospect we send to the Yankees)
4th starter caliber signing or trade acquisition 10M
Veteran reliever and a couple guys like KJ and Francoeur for the bench: 8M
Total for acquired players: 35M
In this scenario, we have some funds to play with in going for a third baseman if our opening day payroll is 120M. If our payroll is closer to 100M, then we have to consider a cheaper acquisition at catcher (for example by sending better prospects to the Yankees in exchange for them picking up part of McCann's salary). A 120M opening payroll would allow us to take on all of McCann's salary and go for an upgrade at third (or alternatively a bigger acquisition for the starting rotation or two mid-rotation type acquisitions rather than one).
It seems to me how we conduct our post-season will be significantly impacted by whether the target for opening day payroll is 100M, 110M, or 120M. Under a 100M scenario, we likely will get just one starter and forgo any upgrade for third. Under a 110M budget, we could squeeze in a bit more but only saving a bit on catcher. Under the 120M scenario, we could take on McCann's full salary or compete for Ramos at catcher and still have enough for a third baseman (or a bigger upgrade for the starting pitching).
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