Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
Well i put out 50 starts so we are all talking about the same thing. You are looking at WAR which obviously will put up some value for the guys who end up as relievers.

There is one thing I will point out about your Mets post. I believe you listed the peak ranking of the players in question. In some cases we can make a good case we haven't seen the peak rankings of the Braves prospects. All the guys on your top 4 list--Allard, Soroka, Anderson and Gohara--will probably move up quite a bit when the mid-season rankings come out let alone the 2018 rankings. So that leads to underestimating the outcomes for our group a bit relative to the historical analysis you did.
What about Newcomb, who moved down? Touki moved down. At least 1-2 of the 4 you listed will move up AND down these lists before all is said and done.

My analysis includes 25 years of prospects moving up and down these lists.

Folks want to think this group is different and special. They want to think this group will only go up the rankings.

History says pitching prospects outside the Top ~10, regardless of age or level, fail...a lot. We saw it with the Teheran group. We saw it with the Folty group. We saw it with the recent Mets group. The only difference with this current group of Braves pitchers is homers currently want them to succeed.