FG already has already released the 2018 projections based on their estimated playing time for each player: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections...pe=fangraphsdc
Braves roster:
1 Flowers 1.5
2 Freeman 3.8
3 Albies 1.6
4 Camargo 0.4
5 Swanson 1.1
6 Kemp 0
7 Inciarte 2.1
8 Markakis 0.2
9 Gohara 2.7
10 Newcomb 2
11 Folty 1.6
12 Teheran 1.5
13 Fried 1.4
14 Suzuki 0.7
15 Jace 0.3
16 Ruiz 0.3
17 MAdams 0.2
18 Garcia 0
19 Viz 0.9
20 JJ 0.7
21 Freeman 0.3
22 Winkler 0.2
23 JoRam 0.2
24 Brothers 0.1
25 Hursh 0
26 Wisler 0.7
27 Blair 0.2
28 Sims 0.1
Total: 24.8 = ~73 wins
Add ~2 wins from Flowers' framing and they are projecting ~75 wins. They neglected to put Minter in place of Hursh, so that's 1 more win...76. Acuna will almost certainly replace Kemp or Markakis, good for an extra 2 wins...78.
Adding in framing runs for Flowers and 2 for Acuna totals 15 wins from the starting lineup. I have them projected for 20 wins. The difference being I think Freeman is good for 6 wins rather than 3.8, Albies will produce 2x the 1.6 value they projected, and I think Inciarte remains a 3 win player.
They have the rotation projected to produce 9 wins, and I pretty much agreed with 10 wins.
FG projects the bench to produce a total of 1.5 wins. I figured about 2x that.
The BP is projected to kick in 2.4 wins without Minter. I think they will produce 2 wins with Minter, so FG is higher on the BP than I am.
FG also pegs the 6-8 SPs in AAA to produce 1 win in spot starting duty.
Last year they pegged the Braves for 73 wins and we all came up with reasons the Braves would be better, and they weren't. I think it's safe to assume the Braves are currently a team with a shot at .500, and if they add a 1 win BP arm and a 2-4 win LFer they have a small but real chance at 85 wins and a WC chase late in the season.
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