Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
The fear with JD is that he falls completely off a cliff in the next couple years. His contact rates are trending down, and he wouldn’t be the first late blooming slugger to suddenly stop hitting in his mid-30s.

The idea of selling high on Riley is based on his horrid contact rates. This might be his absolute high point in terms of value. Guys like Gallo and Alfaro and Baez make similar rates work because they either play a premium position, or hit the ball harder than any other human on earth. Riley doesn’t possess those other traits to make up for the lack of contact and zone recognition.

With Anderson the idea is his spin rates won’t produce an MLB quality breaking ball. We see evidence that he is a fastball/change guy in his reverse splits (change works well on LHH), and that could point to less experienced hitters struggling with an MLB quality change...which won’t be the case at the MLB level.

I am against trading Waters for KB unless he’s pretty much the whole package. The other guys are hopefully being sold high in exchange for an MVP contender in his prime that can play a competent 3B/LF at bargain salaries for 2 years. To me, that’s much preferable to giving JD 4/100.
I’ll need help with future value on this.

When I look at excess value Riley plus wright is a massive overpay by the braves.

I know some ppl are following spin rates. Change ups are not spin rate dependent as I understand it. It would be a worry making anderson fastball more hittable, but not a lot. Isn’t the data something like ten percent more hittable at his velocity?

I think the consensus on Anderson this year dropped him from a 1-2 to a 3. That’s really valuable to give up for two expensive seasons of bryant. At least for me.

I get Riley has real issues. Wright as well. I get the cubs don’t have to trade him. But I don’t see any way I’m giving any of our top 3 for Bryant.

I’m thinking I’m not doing Riley, wight an touki unless they are eating mo ey so we can put a real bat in lf.