The Biden Presidency

[sturg33]

This is literally thethe's stance:

He is literally pinning his entire argument on the low possibility that there are more homes empty and not selling than what is actually reported, on the low possibility that illegal population is twice much as what is actually reported, on the possibility that Trump beats Biden in 6 months, on the possibility that Trump will actually fix the border crisis (he didn't last time), on the low possibility that Trump will actually deport illegals at a pace never before seen (3+ million over the next 4 years), and finally on the low possibility that whoever takes over for Trump in 2028 (Dem or Republican) will continue to deport illegals at such a record pace.

And then, only after all that, can we talk about ramping up more housing.

Exactly this

and don't forget the assurances that people who fled to FL and TX are all gonna change their mind and move back to the places currently facing a housing crisis

[sturg33]

Which part - That they left because of restrictions or are realizing that the new places aren't as good as the old ones without hte restrictions?

the second part

[thethe]

the second part

The second part is a hunch based on some feedback I've gotten from friends but small sample noise.

[sturg33]

The second part is a hunch based on some feedback I've gotten from friends but small sample noise.

ahh

lol

[Tapate50]

Snowflakes?

[Carp]

I gave you the reported numbers - You just didn't like it that you were wrong.

And I gave you the ACTUAL numbers and you went looking for 5 pages deep on google to find anything that reputes it.

I literally have admitted that illegal numbers COULD be higher than reported though I don't think it's anywhere near 20 million. You on the other hand, make a claim as fact, find some random article supports your stance, and then claim that article as fact and any other information as completely wrong.

[thethe]

And I gave you the ACTUAL numbers and you went looking for 5 pages deep on google to find anything that reputes it.

I literally have admitted that illegal numbers COULD be higher than reported though I don't think it's anywhere near 20 million. You on the other hand, make a claim as fact, find some random article supports your stance, and then claim that article as fact and any other information as completely wrong.

I gave you numbers from the same article I posted originally.

And I was talking about unoccupied homes in the US.

[chop2chip]

I mean clearly any increase at all means it's going to the moon. Didn't you know that?

I predict that if Mortgage rates triple again (like they have the last two years) that people will stop buying homes.

[thethe]

I predict that if Mortgage rates triple again (like they have the last two years) that people will stop buying homes.

Hey - You're the one that showed a graph thinking it showed a healthy market but it actually showed one with a short blip and increasing amount of homes that are sitting unsold/unoccupied.

I appreciated your contribution to the discussion which strengthened my point htat building was done with poor forecasting.

[Carp]

I predict that if Mortgage rates triple again (like they have the last two years) that people will stop buying homes.

They tripled the last 2 years. Obviously they are going to keep rise to record levels. Interest rates will be 30% in 10 years.

[chop2chip]

Well they fled because of lockdowns primarily and then they realized that Texas/FLorida are very meh compared to where they used to live now that restrictions are gone.

Fled? Both were top 10 for net migration last year.

Or is this another prediction based on a hunch after talking to some friends

[thethe]

They tripled the last 2 years. Obviously they are going to keep rise to record levels. Interest rates will be 30% in 10 years.

The joke that you guys are making actually works in the inverse as the homes purchased reduced so much because of pandemic inspired migration.

Its funny that you guys don't even realize it...

[chop2chip]

Hey - You're the one that showed a graph thinking it showed a healthy market but it actually showed one with a short blip and increasing amount of homes that are sitting unsold/unoccupied.

I appreciated your contribution to the discussion which strengthened my point htat building was done with poor forecasting.

“Torture the data and it will confess”

[thethe]

Fled? Both were top 10 for net migration last year.

Or is this another prediction based on a hunch after talking to some friends

There is a tail on moving your life from one state to the next. It takes time to normalize.

[Carp]

The joke that you guys are making actually works in the inverse as the homes purchased reduced so much because of pandemic inspired migration.

Its funny that you guys don't even realize it...

Huh?

[chop2chip]

There is a tail on moving your life from one state to the next. It takes time to normalize.

What’s your evidence that people are fleeing these states?

[thethe]

https://www.northamerican.com/migration-map

Interesting data here:

Florida inbound/outbound% by years:

2018 55/45
2019 58/42
2020 57/43
2021 59/41
2022 55/45
2023 51/49

Almost as if people are leaving Florida increasingly since pandemic restrictions were lifted.

THETHE RIGHT AGAIN!

[sturg33]

What’s your evidence that people are fleeing these states?

his friend said he may one day move back

[thethe]

What’s your evidence that people are fleeing these states?

See above

[sturg33]

I believe Texas was #1 in net migration last year.

Florida #2