2024 Field

[thethe]

What if the polling is still understating trumps support?

[sturg33]

This amazing brilliant "journalist" that thethe gets half his news from fell for another satire site in her obsessions of RDS

(She's a psycho)

[thethe]

All trending in one direction. There will be little blips but its all trending where I've said it would for over a year.

[Tapate50]

It may be a bit early, but those are MASSIVE leads.

[thethe]

It may be a bit early, but those are MASSIVE leads.

Its even more than the leads. The fundraising numbers are telling as these wealthy donors want a seat at the table and they know Trump is going to win.

And if these debates happen its going to be an even bigger accelerant on Trumps lead.

[thethe]

When Trump wins in November the left is going to do something that makes January 6th look like a field trip to the capital (kind of was that anyway).

[Garmel]

Just need one of Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania and we win.

[thethe]

Their plan is clear - What will be great is when 10K people show up to see Trump speak.

[thethe]

The left is going to get real violent when Trump wins.

[thethe]

NY is getting closer - Won't win in 2024 but maybe we get to see some more federal/state house seats flip/retained.

Then you have to consider what this means for the rest of the northeast.

[thethe]

Just posting this again because its always amusing when people actually think he got 81M votes in 2020.

[thethe]

Prices will not only decline rapidly (good thing) but we still have absurd amounts of inventory that will remain vacant and then all those people in the 50-75 range that based a lot of their retirement on the value of their house are going to get screwed in these areas.

And then you tack on millions of illegals not articficually increasing demand. Woof - Going to be a bloodbath in these areas.


Fortunately, I live in NY and you can't build enough up here and there is a massive shortage of unoccupied land that is within 20-30 miles of Manhattan.

[chop2chip]

“The Gang Discovers How Markets Work”

[thethe]

“The Gang Discovers How Markets Work”

How markets work with poor projections - Thats what you guys are about to find out.

[chop2chip]

How markets work with poor projections - Thats what you guys are about to find out.

If they are poor projections, those builders will go out of business and be replaced by ones with better projections. Meanwhile, housing prices go down which I thought would be a good thing to people that care about inflation

[thethe]

If they are poor projections, those builders will go out of business and be replaced by ones with better projections. Meanwhile, housing prices go down which I thought would be a good thing to people that care about inflation

What of the property owners that planned their retirement based on the value of their homes?

What about investors that will take massive losses becuase they invested in PE funds that pushed housing?

What bout hte fact even with lower prices there is still going to be a massive supply of homes unsold.

Its a juvenile position to say all we need to do is build more....

[chop2chip]

What of the property owners that planned their retirement based on the value of their homes?

What about investors that will take massive losses becuase they invested in PE funds that pushed housing?

What bout hte fact even with lower prices there is still going to be a massive supply of homes unsold.

It’s a juvenile position to say all we need to do is build more....

My position is I think government should remove regulation to make building housing easier and lower costs. I thought that was the position you also had. If that’s not true, then we can discuss the role of government and what policy they should have.

[thethe]

My position is I think government should remove regulation to make building housing easier and lower costs. I thought that was the position you also had. If that’s not true, then we can discuss the role of government and what policy they should have.

Government should have zero role in homebuilding. The whole premise of this conversation is that certain people think the only solution to housing prices is building more homes and in certain areas I am saying that there is a glut of supply and instead of forcing the price drops with an aggressive position on building you let things happen naturally over time with the supply that already exists plus planned reduction in migration/future mortality rates of the locations population/removal of illegals.

Otherwise, we are going to get in a situtaion where peoples home values will plummet by 20-30-40% in a 2-3 year period and thats not good for everyone.

[chop2chip]

I would never argue that “we should build more houses”. That’s what a central planner would say. I have only ever argued for less regulation. It’s an undeniable fact there is a housing shortage across the US especially in certain markets where acquiring building permits is heavily restricted.

Glad we agree. Zero role for government in home building and let market forces find the right equilibrium.

[nsacpi]

If they are poor projections, those builders will go out of business and be replaced by ones with better projections. Meanwhile, housing prices go down which I thought would be a good thing to people that care about inflation

Markets (and builders) will get things wrong (sometimes bigly wrong). But it is also very hard for amateur outsiders to do better. Everyone has an uncle who thinks he is a genius at real estate.