Braves Trade Heyward, Walden to Cardinals for Miller and Tyrell Jenkins

[NYCBrave]

I think there is some upside from Miller and Jenkins as you describe. The most likely outcome however is that Miller is a 2-2.5 WAR pitcher per year while with us and that Jenkins does not pan out. In that scenario we get a surplus (Miller's output minus his salary) of 5 WAR. The Cardinals get Heyward's surplus this year of about 3 WAR (he is being paid as a 1.5 WAR player and I'm expecting him to be a 4.5 WAR player) plus a surplus of about 1 WAR from Walden over his two years of contractual control, plus the value of a the draft pick which from the various studies I've looked at is worth about 2 WAR. So the Cardinals net 6 and we net 5 WAR. Those are obviously my estimates. Other people will have a different view.

There are two other aspects to this. One is upside and downside relative to the point estimates. I think our end of the deal has more of both because of the longer period we have the players under contractual control. The other is the discount factor. Most of the surplus for the Cards will accrue in 2015. Ours is more spread out over the future, so you want to discount that to some extent.

Bottom line is that this trade is more favorable for the Cardinals.

I like doing this kind of analysis because it takes the emotion out of it. Heyward has been my favorite Brave the past few years. I can see his flaws as a player as well as his strengths. But I liked the way he played and how much he cared. I tried not to let that enter into the assessment above. As I noted, other people could reasonably reach different conclusions about the appropriate valuations of the players involved as well as the draft pick. It isn't a slam dunk for the Cards, but chances are it will work out better for them.

Oh one more thing. If you think there was any significant probability that Heyward would have agreed to a below market deal to stay in Atlanta the trade becomes much worse from our perspective.

I mean, it's a fair analysis, but I don't think you can just take those numbers in a vacuum. You also have to factor in where each team is in the contending/rebuilding process. For us, the 6 WAR that the Cardinals are netting, would not do us much good this year a little next. We don't expect to contend.

[rico43]

With Braves fans questioning why Walden was included (my short answer is that as a second time arb guy, they felt he was getting too expensive), the Cardinals fans are likewise asking why Jenkins was included with his comeback nearly complete.

In an article that just came out over the weekend, he was rated the Cardinals' top prospect in this year's AFL play:
CARDINALS
Best Performance: Right-hander Tyrell Jenkins' comeback from shoulder surgery has been slow, but he started to show some encouraging signs with a 2.22 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 24 1/3 AFL innings. More important, he ran his lively fastball up to 96 mph and showed flashes of a plus curveball.
More and more, it figures that he might jump Double-A or at the least have only a token stop in Mississippi until the weather warms up.

[GovClintonTyree]

With Braves fans questioning why Walden was included (my short answer is that as a second time arb guy, they felt he was getting too expensive), the Cardinals fans are likewise asking why Jenkins was included with his comeback nearly complete.

In an article that just came out over the weekend, he was rated the Cardinals' top prospect in this year's AFL play:
CARDINALS
Best Performance: Right-hander Tyrell Jenkins' comeback from shoulder surgery has been slow, but he started to show some encouraging signs with a 2.22 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 24 1/3 AFL innings. More important, he ran his lively fastball up to 96 mph and showed flashes of a plus curveball.
More and more, it figures that he might jump Double-A or at the least have only a token stop in Mississippi until the weather warms up.

"Hart Hoses Cards, Avenges Wainwright Deal"

[cajunrevenge]

Why would Jenkins skip AA. It's really more of a proving grounds than AAA.

[Dalyn]

Look at those lips. Going to work nicely with Wood.

[Hawk]

Look at those lips. Going to work nicely with Wood.

Indeed.

Plus, Wang will also be vying to plug a hole at the back end.

[Dalyn]

Indeed.

Plus, Wang will also be vying to plug a hole at the back end.

He'll have to jump Minor's slot first.

[Hawk]

Apologies if this has already been posted, just came across it;



Tyrell's arm action that kinda reminds me of Tom Gordon.

[gilesfan]

Well, I see why he's had some arm issues.

[Carp]

Also for what it's worth, I've read quite a few things saying Shelby is a dickhead.

Hasn't even put on a uniform yet, and the bashing has already started. Yippee

[Heyward]

David O'Brien @DOBrienAJC
#Braves newcomer Shelby Miller on Wainwright: “With him being from Georgia...He told me I’ll love it here, and I know I will.”

David O'Brien @DOBrienAJC
#Braves newbie Shelby Miller on Roger McDowell: "Spoke to him on the phone today. I haven’t heard anything but great things about him."

David O'Brien @DOBrienAJC
#Braves newcomer Shelby Miller started throwing new sinker after All-Star break, posted .201 opp. avg/.253 OBP post break (.259/.345 before)

[jpx7]

Hasn't even put on a uniform yet, and the bashing has already started. Yippee

As some of the people disappointed with the trade have often been told: get over it.

[Heyward]

As some of the people disappointed with the trade have often been told: get over it.

[Carp]

It's winning enough for St. Louis.

St. Louis is in a better position to win now. They'll likely only be left with Walden next season and if they don't win the WS it will be a very dumb move on their part.

[Hawk]

Mark Bowman
@mlbbowman
Shelby Miller credits Justin Masterson for helping him develop a sinker that helped him be more efficient during the latter part of 2014

[Carp]

To say the least -- although, I need to add; not by happenstance. St. Louis is the gold standard in baseball for a reason.

Oh give me a break. St Louis lucked up with Pujols which amounted for a large part of their success over the last decade+. Yes they are on top now. But it's cyclical. They could just as easily be bottom dwellers in the next 2-3 yrs. Part of Braves front office was responsible for the Braves success between 1991-2004. Eventually, the winning stops (if even for a bit)

[Hawk]

St. Louis is in a better position to win now.

Now that they've acquired Jason Heyward, absolutely.

if they don't win the WS it will be a very dumb move on their part.

I don't know that you can call it 'dumb' -- if anything, no more stupid than the JD Drew trade, presuming Miller pans out.

[Hawk]

Oh give me a break. St Louis lucked up with Pujols which amounted for a large part of their success over the last decade+. Yes they are on top now. But it's cyclical. They could just as easily be bottom dwellers in the next 2-3 yrs. Part of Braves front office was responsible for the Braves success between 1991-2004. Eventually, the winning stops (if even for a bit)

From STL Post-Dispatch:

“In reality, they’re a powerhouse,” Cubs president Theo Epstein said. “The Cardinals are the standard in a lot of ways. They’ve built an incredibly healthy baseball organization and a thriving, robust business operation and they combine those things really well. I don’t think they’ve reached their potential yet. I think there isn’t a player in baseball that they couldn’t go get if they wanted to. If they sensed a threat and they wanted to put their foot on the gas I think it’s almost unlimited what they could do.”

I mean, the rise and fall of empires is always cyclical (Rome, Greece, the NYY) ... but they aren't going to just fall off the map. They've built a juggernaut and deserve just a little bit more credit than "It was all Pujols."

[Dalyn]

Mark Bowman
@mlbbowman
Shelby Miller credits Justin Masterson for helping him develop a sinker that helped him be more efficient during the latter part of 2014

[Heyward]

The Cards starting 8 other than Heyward is under contol through 2016 to 2021.

They are gonna be good for awhile.

If they dont sign him, i guess it is a bad move but given Wainwright, Peralta, Holliday, Molina are in their 30's, it's a good move to semi-go for it.