I think if you factor in the injury risk an 8 WAR projection for the following 4 years is a good number. My rough math gives Wood an estimated 35 million in surplus value the following 4 years of the trade. Roughly the same amount HO had for his 5 years we had him.
Seems a straight up HO/Wood deal would of been pretty fair.
edit: As the #26 prospect in baseball at the time Peraza had a surplus value somewhere between 20-38 million. As a lot said at the time of the trade. Wood or Peraza for HO was fair. Not both. I understand the draft pick and other stuff going into that. It does have to be factored as well.
Last edited by thewupk; 02-14-2017 at 05:04 PM.
I'm not sure that's been an unqualified success.
Even freeman has to repeat his career years over time to make that deal work out in its latter years. Which is possible.
They overpaid Simmons in my view.
Teheran is looking good but they've had good luck with injury there.
Those deals tend to look good when the player is cheap but the player was already cheap for those years. It's the later years where the deal makes or breaks.
Good point. The white sox traded away young, cheap, good and controllable assets for prospects that they hope will one day be young, cheap, good and controllable assets.
I agree that gutting the MLB team for prospects isn't hard for a gm to accomplish but at times the white sox has been praised for doing it faster. Well no ****, he started off with great assets and maybe the better question is why he couldn't figure out a way to field a good team with what he had.
Coppy has not succeeded in this rebuilding project but I think it's indisputable he has rebuilt the minor league system and I think they've been pretty creative and pursued several strategies for doing that.
Whether it translates into success for MLB club is unclear. Those are two different standards that are perhaps only loosely correlated.
Simmons at $13 million and $15 million in his two years of FA that were bought out, at age 29 and 30, should be a very good value. Not sure why you think that's an overpay.
And Freeman will make between $20.5 million and $22 million over the next 5 years, at age 27-31. He doesn't really have to come all that close to what he did last year for that to be very good value as well, especially considering that the market will continue to grow.
I guess the question for Gattis trade is whether the Braves could have done better than a top 50 SP prospect in aaa with an 80 fastball and whatever value Rio Ruiz had.
Keeping in mind that braves were disappointed in his defense catching and in left field and it was widely perceived that he would have to dh soon.
I tend to think they sold high on that one and that there wasn't much more value to be obtained.
The return so far has been a major league rotation piece whose ultimate ceiling hasn't been determined and someone that might be a useful MLB platoon player maybe.
That seems about right for Gattis.
Not sure what negative you can say about Heyward trade and resulting tree other than it worked out fortunately, which isn't really analysis.
I think what the war analysis of the white sox vs braves trades shows is that maybe there is an unrealistic portrait in the minds of some as to what atlanta's assets were worth.
Expiring contracts and the wren extensions made some of them less valuable in trade than perhaps their raw numbers would suggest.
You can only accept offers that are made. Maybe there were better offers out there though it's hard to really prove it.
I think there is diminishing return in increased gradations of defense and I'm not a big believer in his bat. You can probably get more than solid defense cheaper.
He's probably paid fairly in my view which doesn't necessarily make him a great asset.
Similar observation about freeman except that you can't necessarily find that kind of production on market, but he needs to keep it up to earn the contract.
If freeman just had his peak season and he comes back down his contract isn't a killer but it won't be a value either.
But I'm not good at estimating k inflation so I could be swayed there.
Julio3000 (02-15-2017)
Eaton and Heyward are pretty similar in terms of pure on-field value. So you value 4 years of that kind of a player and 3 years of a bona fide ace less than the Kimbrel/Simmons/Gattis/Wood package, with one year of a 3-ish WAR player thrown in?
Considering the contracts, I don't see how it's even close.
this is pretty interesting. I need to finish my analysis, but so far, it looks like the Braves traded away more WAR by a good bit.. need to add contract next and see surplus value..
I am making some small assumptions but I think the WAR is a good projections so far. The Braves might get hurt a little because I project a players WAR to 500 ABs if they didn't get that many.. so guys like Simmons and Heyward are hurt because their WAR is derived by defense too. I might alter my formulas a bit to factor oWAR and dWAR.. and I am using BR not Fwar..