Just about any top 10 pick will have some comps that are very impressive. They all have upside. But there is also a more realistic picture when you consider the full range of possible outcomes, appropriately weighted according to past outcomes for similarly highly regarded prospects.
Jaw (03-15-2017)
So why is the idea out there that Anderson doesn't have TOR stuff?
Gondee:
The No. 3 overall pick last year, Atlanta focused on him for months as part of their “all high school pitching” 2016 draft strategy. He signed a below-slot $4 million deal, and projects at a top-of-the-rotation starter. He has a big mid-90s fastball and a plus slurve with a developing changeup. Anderson should anchor another amazing starting rotation at Rome this year, and if his development continues as planned, he could see Atlanta as early as 2019, with 2020 more likely.
Sickels:
first round pick in 2016, third-overall, from high school in New York; 2.04 ERA in 40 innings in rookie ball with 36/12 K/BB; low-to-mid-90s fastball from 6-3, 170 frame; slider and change-up can be inconsistent but are solid for his age; number three starter projection is a bit cautious at this point but I want to see how he handles a workload
Longerhans:
Anderson sat 92-95 in short bursts during showcases as a rising senior and flashed an above-average mid-70s curveball. He had a prototypical starter’s build and athleticism and had some nascent feel for a mid-80s changeup for which he had absolutely no use while playing high-school ball in upstate New York. When his senior spring arrived and, when Anderson pitched, he was mostly 91-95 with better command in the lower end of that band. That’s not a Jethro Tull joke, I swear. Anyway, Anderson missed starts last spring because of inclement weather, pneumonia and an oblique injury. The Braves stayed on him and, as the draft approached, his stuff starting improving. They drafted him No. 3 overall, cut an underslot deal that allowed them to have a dandy draft class, and Anderson was sitting 93-97 later that summer in the GCL.
When I saw him during instructional league he was 91-94 and struggling to throw strikes while flashing a 60 curveball (though there were some 40s in there, too) in the mid-70s that was better when it had two-plane movement rather than pure vertical drop. I only saw one changeup, but the arm action is good and I have it projected, quite conservatively, to average. I’ve spoken with scouts who have seen it flash above.
This is your stereotypical high-end prep pitching prospect and a potential No. 2 or 3 starter. If the body and command come along in the right way maybe, there’s more velocity in there (I’m skeptical, due to the massively increased workload), and it’s possible we exist in the universe where Anderson develops a plus change, too. He’s light years from the big leagues as a cold-weather prep arm who lost reps due to an entire Curb Your Enthusiasm season’s worth of misfortune, and the risk here is extreme.
Natural Immunity Croc
Whether he develops that stuff further is one thing but the frame and arsenal is there to make it a possibility at least.
Natural Immunity Croc
And the Braves' past has proven that that's simply not the case - attendance peaked in 1993 prior to the strike, then in 1997 post-strike. It decreased every year after that DESPITE the team recording 106, 103, 95, 88, 101, 101, 96, and 90 wins through 2005. During the run, the Braves won or were on pace to win 90+ games 14 out of those 15 years, yet they only drew 3+ million fans six times.
Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...
Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?
There was a study from a few years ago that showed that Cubs fans are the least responsive to record and that Braves fans are among the most responsive (in terms of effect on attendance).
That's an important thing to keep in mind about the Braves.
But I really don't think this explains the puzzling push to win at all costs toward the end of last season.
I don't think losing a couple more games has a long-term impact on fan attendance/enthusiasm. I do think clearly attempting to lose on purpose can carry some stink for a little while, though long-term you're still probably ok once you start winning.
But we are trying to get as much revenue as we can as quickly as we can, so any carry-over in fan apathy carries with it a real hit to revenue. That will in turn bring a real hit in available resources to build the team over the next couple years.
The consistent threads you see throughout all the scouting reports of Anderson is a fastball that tends can reach the mid-90s but sits more comfortably in the low-90s and tends to lose velocity as the game goes on. There's a slurvy breaking ball there that scouting reports seem split on whether it will eventually be slowed down and kept as a mid-70's curve or whether it will be turned into a low 80's slider. Either way, the pitch will need to be tightened up. And the changeup is developing but projects as at least average.
You hear different things about whether there's much more velocity potential left. I tend to think there's a potential for a couple ticks. I could see him with a fastball that averages 94 and stays there throughout the game as his body develops. I'd actually worry that if he focuses on velocity it might straighten his fastball out a bit.
In the end, reasonable projections has a guy with a good fastball, a good curve, and a respectable changeup with above average command. He might never reach that but those projections are reasonable. That's a number 3 starter.
If he wants to be an ace, then something out of the ordinary will have to happen. He'll need to develop a fastball that averages 96+ and keeps its movement or one of his secondary pitches to become plus-plus. That just sounds like something that can't really be projected for him at this point.
It's all coming from clips and scouting reports at this point. It's way too early to call him a bust or a failure. That's just ridiculous. However, reading and setting expectations is only natural. In fact, part of the fun is trying to predict how these guys will do.
Anderson might be our next HOF pitcher or he might never be able to successfully jump to AA. There's nothing certain with pitching prospects. But it's fun to speculate and discuss.