Its way too early to say, but Allard, Anderson, and Gohara could all easily end up being top 10 prospects. Its not hard to see how this next wave of pitching is quite a bit ahead of the last wave. The ceilings of this wave are much higher... Wisler and Blair were never thought to have huge ceilings... they were thought to have a ceiling of a serviceable MLB starter. Anderson Allard, and Gohara have TOR ceilings... add Soroka into that as well possibly.
I have no idea. We'll have to wait and see, that's part of what makes it fun.
If I had to throw out a number, I would say that out of the following group:
Allard
Soroka
Anderson
Newcomb
Fried
Weigel
Gohara
Touki
Wentz
Muller
I would be happy if we ended up with 4-5 guys who became legitimate SPs. In terms of what is meant by 'significant,' I don't know. Obviously there is injury risk among those who make it as well. I consider guys like Sims, Sanchez, B. Wilson, and Harrington as just hopes without any real expectations tied.
The idea that we can go ahead and cut over half the group into RPs and then take the rest and cut those at least in half is a bit much, IMO.
Good example. Let's look at the guys we see as "hits":
Syndergaard (#11) - 7.8 career WAR, best RHer in game, currently injured
Wheeler (#11) - 2.2 career WAR, major injury issues
deGrom (NR) - 12.7 career WAR, legit 1-2
Harvey (#54) - 11.8 career WAR, struggling with coming back from injury this year and last
Matz (#13) - 3.8 career WAR, currently injured
Harvey made his debut in 2012. Let's list the pitchers in the Top 100 for the Mets from 2010 through 2015 when Matz debuted:
Mejia (#48) - 1.0 career WAR, hasn't pitched since 2015
Familia (#89) - 6 career WAR as a BP arm
Fulmer (#47) - 5.7 career WAR
Syndergaard, Matz and Wheeler fall into the Top 10 group with Teheran where the bust rate is much lower, and it looks like Wheeler is going to bust. The group of Harvey, Mejia, Familia, and Fulmer produced right about what the odds suggested...2 legit SPs, a legit BP guy, and a complete bust.
Sorry, but the Braves don't have guys at the level of Syndergaard, Matz and Wheeler (except maybe Allard). Comparing these groups of prospects is not apples to apples.
Last edited by Enscheff; 05-05-2017 at 12:37 PM.
Let's pump the brakes on Gsellman. Dude has produced 0.7 WAR over 71 IP so far.
2-3 from the Allard/Anderson/Gohara/Soroka group. 2-3 from the "other group".
However, I do not consider 50 starts to be a measure of success. For example, I consider Familia going from #89 to 6 WAR out of the BP a success. I do not consider some "stuff" former top prospect getting chance after chance at the MLB level to "figure it out" a success because he was able to compile 50 replacement level starts.
Last edited by Enscheff; 05-05-2017 at 12:51 PM.
You really need to work on your reading comprehension. Here's another chance to actually comprehend what I wrote:
"I just so happen to think the 2 that will be legit SPs are Allard and Soroka. A few of the others will carve out mediocre BP careers, with 1-2 of them compiling 3+ WAR over a 5+ year career."
I said 2 legit guys I compared to Quintana and Lowe, and 1-2 more compiling significant BP careers. So yes, 3-5 guys that produced 3+ WAR and weren't busts. Pretty much exactly what happened with the Mets group of sub-Top-10 prospects.
Last edited by Enscheff; 05-05-2017 at 12:52 PM.
Well i put out 50 starts so we are all talking about the same thing. You are looking at WAR which obviously will put up some value for the guys who end up as relievers.
There is one thing I will point out about your Mets post. I believe you listed the peak ranking of the players in question. In some cases we can make a good case we haven't seen the peak rankings of the Braves prospects. All the guys on your top 4 list--Allard, Soroka, Anderson and Gohara--will probably move up quite a bit when the mid-season rankings come out let alone the 2018 rankings. So that leads to underestimating the outcomes for our group a bit relative to the historical analysis you did.