The Trump Presidency

[Runnin]

Don't forget the two special elections that were supposed to mark the end of the Republicans and of Trump. Third time's a charm - or so I've heard.

I don't remember anyone saying or even thinking that. Hoping, yes.

But this time it's possible that the drip drip of sour swamp drain around the missteps and incompetence of T's administration is starting to have an effect.

[sturg33]

Americans and they overwhelming said "give us some more of this status quo ****, we ****ing love it". WOMEN raped by the thousands, over 99% voted for it. Black people hunted down like dogs for victimless crimes. Virginia can't get enough of that. Perpetual war, what is it good for? Virgina apparently cause Virginians want to see more attacks on us at home.




So great job Virginia. You told up in one unison voice and said "we hate peace and freedom".

"If we put the other letter in this time, things will be different"

[sturg33]

How sad is it that the future of our country, our spending, and our protection of liberty (lol) has been reduced to "our team is winning!"

[Super]

Sort of like One of the Great Memories of All-Time couldn't remember what took place in a meeting last year.

or that he even said it like, 3 days later.
and people still believe in him. lol

[Jaw]

Don't forget the two special elections that were supposed to mark the end of the Republicans and of Trump. Third time's a charm - or so I've heard.

So the scoreboard now is that the Rs won the big races they were supposed to win, and the Ds won the big elections that they were supposed to win, along with a couple of state rep gains in a blue state that's trending bluer.
But...Drumpf repudiation wave!

[sturg33]

So the scoreboard now is that the Rs won the big races they were supposed to win, and the Ds won the big elections that they were supposed to win, along with a couple of state rep gains in a blue state that's trending bluer.
But...Drumpf repudiation wave!

I saw a Shapiro tweet yesterday afternoon that went along the lines of "remember, whoever wins tonight will definitely win the rest of elections for the rest of time!"

[Jaw]

Reminder from last month:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...cal-barometer/

But regardless of whether Northam wins, I’d urge you not to read too much into Virginia’s governor’s race. State politics are different from national politics. Even if Northam isn’t raking in cash hand over fist, he has still outraised Gillespie and pulled in nearly three times as many donations of less than $100 as the Republican. More than that, gubernatorial elections — especially in Virginia — don’t necessarily reflect the national mood.
....
The average difference between Democrats’ over- or underperformance in Virginia and the following national House vote has been 7 percentage points. That’s a pretty big miss — and just a few points could make or break the Democrats’ shot at a House majority.

In 2009, for example, Republican Bob McDonnell’s landslide victory over Democrat Creigh Deeds accurately presaged Republicans taking over the House in 2010, though the national House margin ended up being much smaller. Four years later, however, Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s win over Republican Ken Cuccinelli gave Democrats false hope ahead of the 2014 midterms, in which they lost control of the Senate. The 2001 Virginia governor election was similarly misleading: Democrat Mark Warner outperformed the presidential lean of the state by 14 points, and the following year Republicans easily held onto control in the House.
...
In the 2016 elections, there was barely any relationship between the outcome in the 12 gubernatorial elections and the presidential vote in those states. In theory, you’d expect the presidential lean of a state to have its greatest impact when presidential candidates are literally on the ballot. Yet there was a 17 percentage point difference, on average, between gubernatorial and presidential results in these 12 states.

So even if Northam or Gillespie wins by 10 points, we really won’t be able to say that much about what it means for 2018.

[Super]

i guess absolute ass kickings don't matter ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
i thought trump was the beginning of some kind of ideological turn around in america.
Gillespie's adoption of trumpism resulted in him widening his losing margin by a lot.

[nsacpi]

Reminder from last month:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...cal-barometer/

But regardless of whether Northam wins, I’d urge you not to read too much into Virginia’s governor’s race. State politics are different from national politics. Even if Northam isn’t raking in cash hand over fist, he has still outraised Gillespie and pulled in nearly three times as many donations of less than $100 as the Republican. More than that, gubernatorial elections — especially in Virginia — don’t necessarily reflect the national mood.
....
The average difference between Democrats’ over- or underperformance in Virginia and the following national House vote has been 7 percentage points. That’s a pretty big miss — and just a few points could make or break the Democrats’ shot at a House majority.

In 2009, for example, Republican Bob McDonnell’s landslide victory over Democrat Creigh Deeds accurately presaged Republicans taking over the House in 2010, though the national House margin ended up being much smaller. Four years later, however, Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s win over Republican Ken Cuccinelli gave Democrats false hope ahead of the 2014 midterms, in which they lost control of the Senate. The 2001 Virginia governor election was similarly misleading: Democrat Mark Warner outperformed the presidential lean of the state by 14 points, and the following year Republicans easily held onto control in the House.
...
In the 2016 elections, there was barely any relationship between the outcome in the 12 gubernatorial elections and the presidential vote in those states. In theory, you’d expect the presidential lean of a state to have its greatest impact when presidential candidates are literally on the ballot. Yet there was a 17 percentage point difference, on average, between gubernatorial and presidential results in these 12 states.

So even if Northam or Gillespie wins by 10 points, we really won’t be able to say that much about what it means for 2018.

That's true. One race (especially a governor's race which tends to have its own dynamics) will never be very predictive of national trends a year later. You need to look at all the data (kind of like looking at all the at bats, not just when a player is hot or cold) from all the elections to get the best picture. And for purposes of prediction it is percentage relative to benchmark that matters not wins and losses.

The Virginia governor's race is not an especially good result for the Dems. Some of the other races that they lost but outperformed the benchmarks strongly were more encouraging from their perspective.

[acesfull86]

i guess absolute ass kickings don't matter ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
i thought trump was the beginning of some kind of ideological turn around in america.
Gillespie's adoption of trumpism resulted in him widening his losing margin by a lot.

I feel like I hear the same thing every election year....

[cajunrevenge]

http://abc7ny.com/politics/abc-news-...ction/2612244/



Some good news. The new Governor of NJ campaigned on legalizing pot in his first 100 days. How many states have to legalize before the federal government does something.

[Jaw]

I saw a Shapiro tweet yesterday afternoon that went along the lines of "remember, whoever wins tonight will definitely win the rest of elections for the rest of time!"

I think part of the problem is that many Rs haven't seen the light on Virginia yet. It isn't a purple state anymore. The eastern wing of the progressive party now firmly controls the Atlantic seaboard to the NC-VA border, and NC probably won't remain purple for much longer. Republicans need to turn the blue wall states that Trump won to a solid red if they hope to remain competitive nationally.

[Jaw]

i guess absolute ass kickings don't matter ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
i thought trump was the beginning of some kind of ideological turn around in america.
Gillespie's adoption of trumpism resulted in him widening his losing margin by a lot.

Probably important to remember that Gillespie did not want Trump campaigning in Virginia. Also that Gillespie beat a Trump aligned primary opponent by a razor thin margin, despite outspending that opponent 5 to 1.

[nsacpi]

I think part of the problem is that many Rs haven't seen the light on Virginia yet. It isn't a purple state anymore. The eastern wing of the progressive party now firmly controls the Atlantic seaboard to the NC-VA border, and NC probably won't remain purple for much longer. Republicans need to turn the blue wall states that Trump won to a solid red if they hope to remain competitive nationally.

I think you're right. In terms of medium-term trends, it is a question of whether VA, NC, GA, FL, AZ are shifting to the Dems faster than PA, MI, WI, OH, MN are shifting to the GOP. There does seem to be a realignment of sorts happening that goes beyond Trumpism.

[Julio3000]

How sad is it that the future of our country, our spending, and our protection of liberty (lol) has been reduced to "our team is winning!"

I think the thing to do is definitely to complain about how dumb voters are, then close your eyes and wish for a viable alternative capable of electoral success and governance to appear.

[Jaw]

i guess absolute ass kickings don't matter ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
i thought trump was the beginning of some kind of ideological turn around in america.
Gillespie's adoption of trumpism resulted in him widening his losing margin by a lot.

The Ds will probably make major gains in 18. I won't be shocked if they take control of the House.
But as someone else said, anything can happen in a year in politics.

[nsacpi]

The Ds will probably make major gains in 18. I won't be shocked if they take control of the House.
But as someone else said, anything can happen in a year in politics.

Mid-term elections being bad for the party holding the White House is the closest thing we have to an Iron Law in American politics. But there are waves and there tsunamis. This one looks like it is more likely to be a tsunami.

[57Brave]

Downballot, though, was the scene of an even bigger, historic, and downright epic bloodbath, and perhaps the biggest harbinger for 2018. Republicans entered the night with an enormous 66-34 advantage in the Virginia House of Delegates, but Democrats smashed all expectations and had picked up a monster 15 seats by the time we put the Digest to bed—the biggest Democratic year since 1899. That shrunk the GOP's edge to just 51-49, and some late-breaking races could yet go the Democrats' way (though some recounts may also be in store), potentially setting the party up to take over the chamber—an outcome no one could have imagined or dared to predict. Republicans in the U.S. House should be very worried.

Someone tell me when it is ok to revisit the Women's March held in January and what it signified.
Like mass murders and natural disasters I don't want to talk politics of an issue until the snowflakes think they are ready or deem it "appropriate".
What a smarmy word "appropriate"

[Jaw]

Someone tell me when it is ok to revisit the Women's March held in January and what it signified.

It signified that George Soros was pissed, and has a lot of money.

[57Brave]

I'll call your Soros and raise you a Koch.

Statistics show the number of women politically/electorally energized in the past year.
Soros or no Soros.

Where Soros covertly or overtly sponsors empowerment Koch sponsors deregulation of finance and industry.
Walks back workers rights and promotes a "fend for yourself" society. just for starters

So,
What did Soros do and for whom ? Be specific

and this:



https://www.usnews.com/news/best-sta...march-defeated