2018 Offseason And Targets

[zbhargrove]

A guy who has abysmal numbers away from the hitter friendly confines of his home park with questionable or deteriorating defense? Sure if he's dirt cheap but I'm not paying much for it at all.

The away from home stuff was shot down pretty good if you go back and read the post that Beanie put together

[Super]

where is his defense questionable or deteriorating? are we just making stuff up like the prez now? come on. he was a positive in the OF and has a great arm to boot.

[Super]

The away from home stuff was shot down pretty good if you go back and read the post that Beanie put together

correct. unless being away from texas makes his k rate vs lefties jump for some reason (hint: there's not logical reason for this), then SSS is the issue.

[Carp]

That's true, and I wouldn't expect him to maintain that high of an OPS against LHP in Arlington. However, his K% and his BB% are relatively in line with his career norms vs. RHP. So I trust that he would maintain an .800+ OPS in that scenario more than I believe he'll maintain a 46 point K% and an 8 point BB% away from Arlington. To my knowledge, there should be no meaningful reason for those numbers to have such extreme home and away splits.

Let me say, I don't hate Gallo. I just don't want to spend much to get him when there are better options available at cheaper or similar trade value. Years of control aren't that important to me as the prospects going away. If we're giving up 70 or 80 million (or more) in prospect value, I want a better player than Joey Gallo.

[zbhargrove]

where is his defense questionable or deteriorating? are we just making stuff up like the prez now? come on. he was a positive in the OF and has a great arm to boot.

Its not.... people who don't care to actually look at the detailed data are rolling his awful defense metrics at 3rd into his solid defense metrics in the OF and making assumptions because they are being lazy... he's actually a pretty good fielder in the OF with a rocket arm, but I hate to mess up the lazy peoples narrative

[nsacpi]

Nelson Cruz to the Twins.

So Cruz DH, Cron 1B, Sano 3B. OF of Rosario, Kepler, Buxton with Jake Cave as fourth outfielder. Also Brent Rooker in AAA.

Given their need for starting pitching, they remain a potential match for us.

[Super]

Nelson Cruz to the Twins.

So Cruz DH, Cron 1B, Sano 3B. OF of Rosario, Kepler, Buxton with Jake Cave as fourth outfielder. Also Brent Rooker in AAA.

Given their need for starting pitching, they remain a potential match for us.

yeah, they badly need pitching. but what OFer do they trade and who moves into a starter role?

[striker42]

I'm constantly amazed at how good of a hitter Cruz has stayed.

[Super]

I'm constantly amazed at how good of a hitter Cruz has stayed.

i'm surprised other AL teams wouldn't give him $14.3M to DH. not like the bat is showing pronounced signs of decline.

[thewupk]

I'm constantly amazed at how good of a hitter Cruz has stayed.

steroids is a helluva drug

[nsacpi]

yeah, they badly need pitching. but what OFer do they trade and who moves into a starter role?

Cave was a productive fourth outfielder for them last year. So maybe they promote him and trade Kepler.

Cave 2018 OPS .786 in 309 PA

Kepler 2018 OPS .727 in 611 PA

Kepler as has been discussed was a bit unlucky in having a .236 BABIP last year. His strikeout and walk rates have been trending in the right direction.

[nsacpi]

steroids is a helluva drug

you're also always going to have some players who age unusually well...Hank Aaron...Darrell Evans...Raul Ibanez...Chipper

[Carp]

you're also always going to have some players who age unusually well...Hank Aaron...Darrell Evans...Raul Ibanez...Chipper

...Nick Markakis

[jpx7]

With Gallo I see him striking out too much ending a rally with a runner on 2nd or 3rd.

Still superior to watching Markakis pull a grounder to second over a hundred times a season.

[clvclv]

yeah, they badly need pitching. but what OFer do they trade and who moves into a starter role?

Cron's on a one-year deal as a placeholder for Rooker and Cave's a 4th OF at best.

Unless they're punting 2019 (which would be understandable), I'm still not sure they have a massive surplus of OFs. Rooker's likely not quite as bad defensively in LF as Hoskins was, but he certainly fits better at 1B. If they're going to be aggressive with Kirilloff (early-to-mid 2020), Rosario would make the most sense if they're moving someone, but he's also obviously going to cost the most - and probably by an amount AA may not be willing to pay.

Haven't seen anyone's "fair value" proposal for Rosario, but bet it's probably higher than most would like to part with.

[clvclv]

i'm surprised other AL teams wouldn't give him $14.3M to DH. not like the bat is showing pronounced signs of decline.

Pretty shocked Tampa didn't beat that offer after ponying-up for Morton.

[BeanieAntics]

This is exactly the difference between all the old-timers and the number-crazies in a nutshell.

You guys act like people who don't buy completely in somehow can't understand the numbers, and nothing could be further from the truth in most cases.

OB stated that he didn't know if he could stomach watching Gallo strike out so often - not that he's not a productive player. Baseball is entertainment, and if Gallo were a Brave, there's 3-4 ABs a night the people watching the games at home get a head start on the commercial break and head to the john so they can get back in time to see every pitch of the next half-inning. The same was true when Pitchers adjusted and learned to throw sliders to Frenchy years ago. So Gallo hits 40 bombs, big deal - I'll see the highlight 3 times during the telecast, at least twice on Braves Live, and if I'm that desperate to see it I'll record the whole game when it's replayed after Braves Live and fast-forward through and watch it in the morning (in the event I miss it all 6 times it's shown on Quick Pitch before I go to work in the morning or Braves.com crashes and I can't go there to see it as many times as I want).

Most people watch the games because they hope to see something they DIDN'T expect to see for the entertainment and wow-factors - a no-no, a walk-off, a Pitcher striking out 20 guys, a nobody like Charlie Culberson being the hero of the game etc. - if everything played out according to the numbers, people would quit watching and there finally would be no reason to play the games. Gallo is absolutely a productive player, and pretty much everybody understands that without needing to be talked down to - he's also a productive player that lots of people will switch over to another game to watch during his AB in hopes there's some action happening elsewhere. Baseball's not lacking for talent - there's more overall talent in the game than ever before - it's suffering greatly from a lack of action, and you sure as *ell aren't going to attract new fans when guys continuously go up there hacking at everything and heading back to the bench 70% of the time. They can go to their local Little League game and see that.

Sometimes when I read clv posts like this, I like to imagine that he's actually Zack De La Rocha at PinkPop '93 and he's just fighting the man. The statistical man.

[thewupk]

you're also always going to have some players who age unusually well...Hank Aaron...Darrell Evans...Raul Ibanez...Chipper

I know. But he's a known PED user.

That being said I've always been a fan of his and was someone I wanted to target way back in the day when he was toiling in the Brewers farm system.

[nsacpi]

I know. But he's a known PED user.

That being said I've always been a fan of his and was someone I wanted to target way back in the day when he was toiling in the Brewers farm system.

He had some awesome PCL numbers in his late 20s. Awesome even by PCL standards.

[Hudson2]

It’s been crazy quiet since the WM so I’m guessing after the 1st it’ll probably crank back up.