JohnAdcox (04-15-2019)
Pretty good hit rate, but having an extra 1st makes up for the loss. I'm more concerned about the draft pool than the pick honestly.
Regardless, we need a closer. I really doubt Kimbrel will still be available in June, and a good closer will likely cost at least a 45 FV prospect come July. It's also unlikely said closer will be as good as CK. So you're going to give up a prospect at least as valuable anyways in a trade for likely a lesser pitcher.
I'd rather just sign CK now and get the added value of having him for 1.5 extra months, assuming he would even be available in June.
it should be kept in mind that a disproportionate part of the value of a closer to a contending team is derived in the post season...between now and the draft kimbrel would pitch 10-15 innings if we signed him tomorrow
having an extra first has no bearing on the value of that second round pick, regardless of what you think that value might be
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
it's not really an "extra" first if they didn't have the first last year.
"Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly
“I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg
I agree that the contenders premium is an issue to consider...AA has to carefully evaluate his chances of landing Kimbrel if he waits until the draft...I am not arguing there is no risk or downside associated with this approach
I might add that the alternative to Kimbrel is not necessarily another closer...we can shore up the pen without going after a big name closer
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
"Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly
“I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg
JohnAdcox (04-15-2019)
Venters to the IL with a “calf strain.” Braces are saying a corresponding move to take place tomorrow. Fingers crossed it’s Kimbrel 😬
There’s the phantom IL stint we all figured was coming.
Ah gotcha ok. I'm less interested in that route since those guys all cost prospects AND money, but since Smith is a FA after this season he might available at a reasonable cost. Watson has a $2.5M player option in 2020 with a $500K buyout and Givens is controllable for 2 more years but is arby eligible
So we’ve lost Viz and Venters in the last 24 hours? I would absolutely have Kimbrel on speed dial right now. Our window is open for a long time so I wouldn’t sweat the 2nd round pick right now bc we are in contention for the playoffs.
If so I would expect the Braves to have done a lot better with their 1st round picks over that same timeframe than they have.
Or are you suggesting there is some team specific effect that makes the Braves above average in the 2nd round specifically?
My guess is the handful of data points you listed is nothing but small sample noise, and I will continue to base my conclusions on the full data set that suggests the 60th pick in the draft is worth less than $5M.
Last edited by Enscheff; 04-15-2019 at 05:04 PM.
no I'm not suggesting the braves are bad drafters in one round and good in another...that's silly...but it is plausible there is such a thing as drafting skill that might make a draft pick more valuable in the hands of some front offices
to evaluate for something like that you would have to control for draft position which especially matters in the first round...and you need to look at whether this skill has some stability across different time periods...eg do the teams who outperform say in the first half of a decade also tend to outperform in the second half...I'm surprised no one has published a study of this sort
Last edited by nsacpi; 04-15-2019 at 05:31 PM.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
jpx7 (04-15-2019)
Viz just had shoulder surgery, done for the year.
jpx7 (04-17-2019), UNCBlue012 (04-17-2019)