Carp (07-19-2019), jpx7 (07-19-2019), The Chosen One (07-19-2019)
And the fact that in his actual prime years his xwOBA was in the .270s, where as now its comfortably in the .320s (and steadily declining) doesn't concern you at all? Or the fact that his ERA and FIP have jumped up by nearly a full run doesn't concern you?
Bumgarner is the poster child for the pitcher aging curve. He is declining at an expected rate and has shown no signs of turning it around outside of this recent run of a few games, which is a ridiculously small sample. And you want to pay that declining pitcher through his age 35 season.
That wasn't the most shocking part of your post, though. The part that floored me was the notion that pitchers are currently aging better than hitters. That was a jaw dropper.
jpx7 (07-19-2019)
Filter through the leaderboards for fWar on hitters and you'll notice one commonality. They are mostly on the low side of 30. That is most certainly not the case with pitchers. So while of course injury risk is always higher the skill deterioration risk from what I can gather is lower. Therefore, I believe there is a different kind of risk when you compare pitchers and hitters over 30. No question about it on the low side of the 30 there is nothing more valuable than a stud hitter.
Last edited by thethe; 07-19-2019 at 02:51 PM.
Natural Immunity Croc
Using the top 5% of players to point to some sort of trend probably isn't the best way to evaluate the aging curve for players in general. Its also true that a pitcher's velocity starts on a steady decline VERY early on in their career. There are some unicorns out there who either buck that trend or figure out ways to mitigate their physical decline, but those guys are exceedingly rare. Madison Bumgarner isn't one of those unicorns. Madison Bumgarner isn't even close to the top 5% in the league anymore. The fact of the matter is that he hasn't had an xwOBA under .300 since 2016, its trending in the wrong way, and his statistics have reflected it over a longer period of time than just his past 6 starts.
He isn't in his prime and he is obviously declining. That doesn't mean he is useless to us, but it does mean that we shouldn't value him as a "HoF pitcher in his prime" when talking about trade scenarios. It also means that, under no circumstance, should we offer him a deal that carries him through his age 35 season. That would be insanity of the highest order.
jpx7 (07-19-2019)
No, thats not all your saying. You specifically argued that it would be a good idea to give Madison Bumgarner a contract that would carry him through his age 35 season.
Besides, I don't even understand where the hitter/pitcher aging curve debate developed. I think that most people can agree that multi year contracts to any 30+ year old player is almost always a bad idea.
Jaw (07-19-2019)