Braves1976 (08-18-2019), jpx7 (08-18-2019)
jpx7 (08-18-2019)
Tapate50 (08-18-2019)
Levity. Levity was the point of the sarcasm. I guess I don't take whatever point system we have here as seriously as some others do.
I do not expect him to have an MLB record career BABIP. I also don't think it's luck. I think it's a kid who hits the ball hard when he makes contact, and will always have a high BABIP. And he misses the ball too much.
Go get him!
Founding member of the Whiny Little Bitches and Pricks Club
Tapate50 (08-18-2019)
Tapate50 (08-18-2019)
The point to make about Waters is that he has been lucky and good. The hard part is parsing how much is luck and how much is skill that can eventually translate at the major league level.
Here's an article that breaks down the BABIP numbers of another young player who has been both lucky and good this year (at the major league level in his case).
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/bryan-re...ucky-and-good/
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Is there any correlation to babip and spray charts? Here's waters' spray charts for A, A+, AA, and AAA:
(Left, center, right)
A = 43.6, 21.4, 35.0
A+ = 39.6, 23.1, 37.4
AA = 43.2, 22.3, 34.6
AAA = 46.4, 21.4, 32.1
He is a switch though, so this could just be him pulling the hell out of everything on that side. Just looking at a stat line though, it seems impressive
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
jpx7 (08-19-2019)
Its worth comparing Waters with Bryan Reynolds. Both are switch hitters.
Looking at their AA stats: Waters had a pull rate in AA this year of 43.2%. Reynolds was at 45.1%.
What is exceptional about Reynolds though is how the pull rate has dropped to 34.8% in the majors this year.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Waters is pretty young and hasn't really been challenged a great deal.
But I think he has the lowest minors walk rate of any the Braves position prospects and his K rate is higher than everyone except Riley.
If that doesn't change, the 100 point drop in BABIP is going to do really bad things to his stat line.
not to say he can't come up and have a good start like they virtually all have had. It's just fairly certain he's going to have an ugly struggle at some point and it's very possible he starts out that way.
jpx7 (08-19-2019)
Yeah the mid 20s are still concerning with his walk rate. Hopefully when things get harder for him he starts to adjust. We won’t know until he gets challenged. Right now he probably has the mind set of hitting everything since it’s easy for him at the moment. Why walk when it’s easy?
jpx7 (08-19-2019)