Originally Posted by
Enscheff
Depending on the pitcher, Riley plus Ender plus an arm is going to be a rough pill to swallow when it opens another hole in an already bad OF.
Assuming Bryant is currently at his peak as a 5 WAR player, his surplus value is roughly $30M if he has 1 year of control, and $50M if he has 2 years of control. That must be clarified before any trade can go down.
If we count Riley as a 50+, that's ~$30M in value alone. If a team doesn't view him as a centerpiece for a player like Bryant, the Braves should not trade him away. From the Cubs perspective (as an ignorant non-Cubs fan), he seems to be the most logical target to step right in to replace Bryant and be marketed as the guy who just needs to learn how to recognize spin.
Anderson as a 55 is worth ~$35M, and if the spin rate issues are truly a problem, then cashing him in for a player like Bryant may be the best use of his value. There is no way he should be packaged with Riley for Bryant.
Pache is obviously a non-starter, but Waters carries a value around $50M, and would be a 1 for 1 for 2 years of Bryant. Unfortunately, Waters doesn't solve a current need for the Cubs in a season they hope to contend.
Selling low on Ender is a bad idea as the roster is currently constructed. Even if the Cubs value him as a 2-3 win CF under reasonably priced team control, the Braves need exactly that type of player in 2020. The flashes Ender showed while healthy in 2019 suggest he is still exactly that. It's hard to see Ender for Bryant working for the Braves without other moves going down to back fill that hole in the OF.
A FV 50 pitcher carries ~$20M in surplus value. That's someone like Wright or Wilson from the Braves system. I'm a huge Wright homer, so I would hate to see him and his spin rates cashed out so early...but the clock is ticking with him. I'd much prefer Wilson be spun off.
Riley ($30M) plus Wilson ($20M) for 2 years of Bryant ($50M) seems like a realistic framework of a package. It gives the Cubs massive payroll relief and a 3B and SP that can step in nearly immediately.