Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[msstate7]

The Bench in 2021: Lamb, Alex Jackson, Ender, and the Island of Misfit Toys

Claiming all of these OF has me legit worried the plan is for Ender to play CF vs RH, move acuna into CF and one of these chumps to RF vs LH and send Pache to AAA.

I have no problem giving ender a shot vs rhp.

[Russ2dollas]

Athletic has an article on 10 breakouts. Riley listed. Comped to Troy Glaus.

TG had a career slash of 254/358/489

Can Riley be 250/300/450 with average defense next year? Baseball reference has him projected at 240/307/447.

Who is taking the over on a Riley OPS of 750?

[Russ2dollas]

I really hope its Contreras instead of Jackson (but maybe Contreras will start in AAA because of service time also?)

I'm hoping Contreras in AAA so he gets more PT. If TDA is down for any period of time then call up Contreras immediately. But I don't want to waste his development playing 1-2x a week.

With options maybe you could bring up Contreras to spot start some. But I think he needs to play.

[Russ2dollas]

I have no problem giving ender a shot vs rhp.

I think he's toast. So I do.

If Ender plays vs RHP, then Pache has to be in the minors. And if that's the plan, then I think it was a very bad decision to not offer arb to Duvall.

[bravesfanMatt]

Athletic has an article on 10 breakouts. Riley listed. Comped to Troy Glaus.

TG had a career slash of 254/358/489

Can Riley be 250/300/450 with average defense next year? Baseball reference has him projected at 240/307/447.

Who is taking the over on a Riley OPS of 750?

It is about that time of year for the homer glasses to be put on. I am going >.800

[zbhargrove]

I'm hoping Contreras in AAA so he gets more PT. If TDA is down for any period of time then call up Contreras immediately. But I don't want to waste his development playing 1-2x a week.

With options maybe you could bring up Contreras to spot start some. But I think he needs to play.

We're on the same page then

[zbhargrove]

I think he's toast. So I do.

If Ender plays vs RHP, then Pache has to be in the minors. And if that's the plan, then I think it was a very bad decision to not offer arb to Duvall.

But what if Ender is in the best shape of his life?

[Enscheff]

Athletic has an article on 10 breakouts. Riley listed. Comped to Troy Glaus.

TG had a career slash of 254/358/489

Can Riley be 250/300/450 with average defense next year? Baseball reference has him projected at 240/307/447.

Who is taking the over on a Riley OPS of 750?

Glaus comps for Riley are laughable. At his peak Glaus posted seasons of 5 and 8 fWAR, and topped 3 several other times. Listing his career line that includes many of his decline seasons is not a good way to compare him to a player in his prime, and their BB rates are nowhere near each other in true talent.

I’ll take the over on a .750 OPS in 2021 for Riley though. I hoping his continues to progress, his BB rate ticks up a bit, and he comes close to being a .250/.320/.450 type of hitter. If he platoons a bit his rate line will improve automatically.

[Skeeter31]

They didn’t fully comp him to Glaus in the article. They said how when he first came up they thought he was like Glaus, then he dropped off quite a bit. But he has the tools to improve.

[msstate7]

Glaus comps for Riley are laughable. At his peak Glaus posted seasons of 5 and 8 fWAR, and topped 3 several other times. Listing his career line that includes many of his decline seasons is not a good way to compare him to a player in his prime, and their BB rates are nowhere near each other in true talent.

I’ll take the over on a .750 OPS in 2021 for Riley though. I hoping his continues to progress, his BB rate ticks up a bit, and he comes close to being a .250/.320/.450 type of hitter. If he platoons a bit his rate line will improve automatically.

Not saying Riley is glaus in the making, but here's a comparison at equal PAs (Riley 458, glaus 462)

Riley/glaus
wOBA - .307 / .298
wRC - 87 / 70
BB% - 6.4 / 8.3
K% - 31.2 / 25.1
Iso - .176 / .150
Babip - .287 / .284

[zbhargrove]

Jack Mayfield, we hardly knew ye

[Enscheff]

Really don't understand this one - yes he has an option, but will draw $1 million even if he's playing in Gwinnett.

Over the last 3 season Heredia has posted a .327 xwOBA vs LHP. Basically Camargo if he could play CF.

Ervin has posted a .295 value over the same period of time. He is pretty much unplayable.

If the goal is to find a placeholder for Pache to platoon with Ender, this new guy is far superior. My guess is he and Ender get a month or so while Pache gets some AAA reps.

[Russ2dollas]

Glaus comps for Riley are laughable. At his peak Glaus posted seasons of 5 and 8 fWAR, and topped 3 several other times. Listing his career line that includes many of his decline seasons is not a good way to compare him to a player in his prime, and their BB rates are nowhere near each other in true talent.

I’ll take the over on a .750 OPS in 2021 for Riley though. I hoping his continues to progress, his BB rate ticks up a bit, and he comes close to being a .250/.320/.450 type of hitter. If he platoons a bit his rate line will improve automatically.

AA had an interview I listened to on youtube this morning. Two bald guys from 680 the fan.

He talked about them moving Albies to 8th when he was struggling a couple of years ago to help his approach. Made me think of that as a potential future plan for Waters. Your comment made me think of Riley too. Do they hit him 8th and see if that can help his approach and/or artificially raise his OBP north of 300?

[Russ2dollas]

Glaus comps for Riley are laughable. At his peak Glaus posted seasons of 5 and 8 fWAR, and topped 3 several other times. Listing his career line that includes many of his decline seasons is not a good way to compare him to a player in his prime, and their BB rates are nowhere near each other in true talent.

I’ll take the over on a .750 OPS in 2021 for Riley though. I hoping his continues to progress, his BB rate ticks up a bit, and he comes close to being a .250/.320/.450 type of hitter. If he platoons a bit his rate line will improve automatically.

Regarding Glaus, I don't know. I can recall watching him as a young player.

The Glaus comparison was the writer's, not mine.

Looking at baseball reference, age 23 (Riley's age in 2021) was the year Glaus took off.

Glaus appear to have always had a better OBP than Riley. Is that talent? Is that Riley's famous slow bat speed? Is that Riley the guess hitter? Is that Glaus' era vs Riley's era of more information? I don't know.

I have watched most of Riley's at bats and I cannot see Riley ever putting up a 400 OBP like Glaus did. I'm not sure I can see Riley ever hitting a 350 OBP, and Glaus' average OBP was 358.

I see Riley as a 220-250/300-320/425-525 slugging. The only way I see Riley being a long term regular is if he can get his slugging percentage to 500 plus or minus 25. He's a better athlete than he looks and he's got to be a doubles and HR machine. 500 slugging is asking a lot, but I don't see another path to 800+ OPS.

[GovClintonTyree]

AA had an interview I listened to on youtube this morning. Two bald guys from 680 the fan.

He talked about them moving Albies to 8th when he was struggling a couple of years ago to help his approach. Made me think of that as a potential future plan for Waters. Your comment made me think of Riley too. Do they hit him 8th and see if that can help his approach and/or artificially raise his OBP north of 300?

Maybe we can hit Riley, Pache and Inciarte eighth.

[GovClintonTyree]

Jack Mayfield, we hardly knew ye

Did they cut him already?

[bravesfanforlife88]

Did they cut him already?

DFAed today to make room for Guillermo Heredia

[50PoundHead]

Jack Mayfield, we hardly knew ye

Nothing against Mayfield as a human being, but I always thought putting him on the 40-man was a clown move.

[Enscheff]

AA had an interview I listened to on youtube this morning. Two bald guys from 680 the fan.

He talked about them moving Albies to 8th when he was struggling a couple of years ago to help his approach. Made me think of that as a potential future plan for Waters. Your comment made me think of Riley too. Do they hit him 8th and see if that can help his approach and/or artificially raise his OBP north of 300?

This is the kind of stupid stuff spewed out on these silly shows that makes fans dumber. Albies has never changed his approach, and he was batting 8th because he was struggling...and we all know how Snit reacts to the "hot hand" nonsense. The same reason why Acuna bats leadoff because that one time he broke out of a slump when he moved the leadoff slot, so he has to bat leadoff despite being exactly as productive there as in any other spot in the lineup.

What matters for Riley is how often he swings at bad pitches, and how much contact he makes in the zone. Whether he bats 6th or 8th he still has to make the same improvements.

We saw real improvements from Riley in 2020, and I hope to see real improvements in 2021. With guys like Ender or Pache in the lineup, Riley should never be batting 8th. Stick him in the 6th/7th slot, and let him get better....or not. If not, Jake Lamb gets some time. If Lamb fails, then the Braves go shopping at the deadline.

[Southcack77]

So basically they are saving quite a bit of money during his peak years before he gets really expensive around age 30.

Looks like they got 1 year at 20, 2 at 25, and 6 at 36m.

I guess they saved some arb exposure as well, but not sure what the point of that is other than Preller figures he won't see the end of that one anyway.