GDT 6-22 Elder!!!!!!!!

[bravesfanMatt]

I mean it is probably still way too early to call Turner's contract a bust. His deal is not horrible when you look at yearly value.. but if these trends are real and he is already starting that old age slide to average then it will be an anchor for that team.

I will admit I was so wanting Turner this off season, at 20 million or is it 25.. either way, I felt 5-7 years of great production at that price would be worth the average player you get for the last 3-5 years. Why I am glad I am not GM.. who knows where ozuna and Rosey would be.. I think Elder would have been traded last offseason.. I think Soroka would have already signed a 4-6 year deal that I thought was team friendly. I mean I would be so bad, that I would probably make the Mutts GM look good.

[thewupk]

This is exactly why I was okay with AA walking away from Dansby. Giving 7 years to an almost 30 year SS isn't a great idea. Giving an 11 year contract was just insane.

I understand why they did 11 years. Paying less annually has a lot of benefits if your team is in win now mode which the Phillies clearly are trying to be. The money and performance in 2030 doesn't concern them if they are getting elite production now.

[bravesfanMatt]

Something I thought about yesterday in the Braves half of 10th.. Why would the Phils play infield in with 1 out and runner at 3rd. Wouldn't you rather trade that one run for an out with the assumption that you are also going to score in the bottom half. I thought it was pretty weird decision to play in. Harris's grounder probably is an out if SS at normal depth.

[striker42]

Something I thought about yesterday in the Braves half of 10th.. Why would the Phils play infield in with 1 out and runner at 3rd. Wouldn't you rather trade that one run for an out with the assumption that you are also going to score in the bottom half. I thought it was pretty weird decision to play in. Harris's grounder probably is an out if SS at normal depth.

If it's successful, you have a good chance of going for the win in the bottom half. If it's not successful, then worst that happens is a guy is on first and the runner scores from third anyway. In that situation you hope to get out of it without another run scoring, which you would most of the time.

[Carp]

I understand why they did 11 years. Paying less annually has a lot of benefits if your team is in win now mode which the Phillies clearly are trying to be. The money and performance in 2030 doesn't concern them if they are getting elite production now.

Yeah, if you are the Phillies GM, you probably don't care b/c you know your window is only about 3-4 years max and then you're in rebuild mode and likely out of a job. What that contract looks like beyond years 5 or 6 is irrelevant to him.

[bravesfanMatt]

If it's successful, you have a good chance of going for the win in the bottom half. If it's not successful, then worst that happens is a guy is on first and the runner scores from third anyway. In that situation you hope to get out of it without another run scoring, which you would most of the time.

I mean I see the idea behind it.. but don't get the plan.. not with Harris for sure.. if Harris is standing on first with 1 out, then he might be standing on 2nd with 1 out and top of order up. Just play back and if he puts ball in play, you are down 1 with bases empty and 2 outs.

[Enscheff]

I had originally said this about Elder's stuff:

Turns out the eye test was mostly right. Statcast confirms his 4 pitch mix (85 thrown in total) was CH (25), FC (24), SI (19), and SL (17).

Starting with the SI because it appeared to be his best fastball, it was 90.9 with 7.2" of arm-side run and 5.1" of rise (almost all pitches "rise" compared to a theoretical ball thrown with no spin). That's a bit below average velocity, below average arm-side run, and roughly average sink.

The cutter was thrown at 88.8 with 0.4" glove-side movement, and 5.8" of rise. That's a bit below average velocity, and below average movement in both directions.

The slider had a velocity of 81.8, moved to the glove-side 0.2", and had 2.9" of sink (breaking balls tend to have some top spin and truly sink). That's a pretty slow slider with poor glove-side movement, but the sink is very good.

The change was thrown 2.6 mph slower than the cutter, and 4.7 mph slower than the sinker, both of which are below average. The 6.8" of arm-side run is below average, but the 1.7" of rise is very good.

Add all that up, and you get a pitcher with very mediocre stuff. His best strategy will be to use the good downward movement on the sinker, slider and change to induce as much contact on the ground as possible. He's definitely nothing to get excited about, but as a cheap crafty innings eater he definitely has a spot. I think I would pencil him in as the 5th SP for a while and let him face 18-20 batters per game, making the rotation Fried/Morton/Anderson/Wright/Elder.

His xwOBA was .319 in 2022 and .305 this year. That is a solid 3/4. Has anything changed since this analysis was made?

He ditched the cutter, which was smart.

He is relying on the sinker and slider. The sinker has improved to 3.8" of rise, which is Grade 60, so while it still has below average velo it has plus movement. The slider still has that plus sink, and it's picked up a bit of velo to 82.4.

His change is also a downer, and the FA at 90.8 has 8" of rise that is good enough if spotted up well and used correctly/occasionally.

Elder's improvement from a #4 last year to a #3 this year is appears to be mostly due to improving BB/9 from 3.83 to 2.40. He is the stereotypical junkballer who has improved his control to the point where he is performing like a mid-rotation guy. His LOB% of 85.3% is unsustainable, and once that regresses more of those baserunners left on will score. Junkballers tend to get figured out by the league unless they develop elite control, so we will see how Elder progresses over his next 20+ starts when he faces teams multiple times.

Either way, a 3/4 that takes the ball every day is valuable, and it looks like Elder has hit near his top end potential.

[Russ2dollas]

I had originally said this about Elder's stuff:



His xwOBA was .319 in 2022 and .305 this year. That is a solid 3/4. Has anything changed since this analysis was made?

He ditched the cutter, which was smart.

He is relying on the sinker and slider. The sinker has improved to 3.8" of rise, which is Grade 60, so while it still has below average velo it has plus movement. The slider still has that plus sink, and it's picked up a bit of velo to 82.4.

His change is also a downer, and the FA at 90.8 has 8" of rise that is good enough if spotted up well and used correctly/occasionally.

Elder's improvement from a #4 last year to a #3 this year is appears to be mostly due to improving BB/9 from 3.83 to 2.40. He is the stereotypical junkballer who has improved his control to the point where he is performing like a mid-rotation guy. His LOB% of 85.3% is unsustainable, and once that regresses more of those baserunners left on will score. Junkballers tend to get figured out by the league unless they develop elite control, so we will see how Elder progresses over his next 20+ starts when he faces teams multiple times.

Either way, a 3/4 that takes the ball every day is valuable, and it looks like Elder has hit near his top end potential.

Thank you. I always say I love these posts you do.

When he sucked last year I kept saying I think he'll be a very good 5. He's surpassed my wildest dreams so far this year, and I've been saying he's not this guy.

But your last point is very true. 3/4 under team control is super valuable. No I don't want to extend him.

That 2020 truncated draft is looking amazing. Getting a 4 starter out of your 5th and last pick, with only 3 years of development.....WOW. That doesn't even include Strider.

[Nerfherders]

I mean I see the idea behind it.. but don't get the plan.. not with Harris for sure.. if Harris is standing on first with 1 out, then he might be standing on 2nd with 1 out and top of order up. Just play back and if he puts ball in play, you are down 1 with bases empty and 2 outs.

I always try to imagine what these extra innings would have been like had there not been the dumb man on second rule. In this case it favored the Braves because they probably don't score there at all. Harris' grounder would've been an out with 1 out and nobody on, Acuna single, and Ozzie K end of inning.

[Super]

I don’t mind attempting to end regular season games early. Not sure what other mechanism there is to do it.

[CyYoung31]

[chop2chip]

What’s amazing is that this tame compared to what Ronnie does.

It’s too bad Marcel didn’t do a selfie

[msstate7]

Hopefully we clinch on the DH they scheduled in September in Philly.

[Carp]

From demoralizing all Mets fans, to hearing probably the most defeated announcing crew I've ever heard. LOL. It's been a fun couple of weeks.

[striker42]

The bitterness, it sustains me.

[Hulavol]

The bitterness, it sustains me.

This is the way.


Lineup for tonight is up…..
Somebody post that sucker and let’s get to talking about just who in the hell America’s Team actually is.
Hell, I’ll do it.

[Enscheff]

If someone like Harper did the same thing...all of you would be whining just like those announcers.

The defeated tone of "swung on and...blasted" was priceless though.

[Super]

If someone like Harper did the same thing...all of you would be whining just like those announcers.

The defeated tone of "swung on and...blasted" was priceless though.

No I wouldn’t.

[chop2chip]

If someone like Harper did the same thing...all of you would be whining just like those announcers.

The defeated tone of "swung on and...blasted" was priceless though.

A low five? I don’t think anyone would even notice.

[Carp]

If someone like Harper did the same thing...all of you would be whining just like those announcers.

The defeated tone of "swung on and...blasted" was priceless though.

I don't really care what anyone does to celebrate a homer as long as they are mocking the other team or yelling obscenities at the pitcher. Hell if someone wanted to do cartwheels around the bases I'd be all for it.