The Coronavirus, not the beer

[thethe]

It does fascinate me how much it takes some people to change their minds on something so obvious.

We saw this countless times the past five years where the official narrative was so stuffed down our throats and most people believed it. Slowly but surely people finally saw the truth. COVID is taking longer than I thought.

[striker42]

You're not. Fauci said 80% of vaccinations would create immunity walla and herd immunity. That is clearly not the case and to pretend that only unvaccinated people are testing positive is literally 57 levels of cognitive disconnect

It would have with Alpha which is what the vaccine was designed to stop. But Delta sprung up which pretty much made herd immunity impossible. Covid is endemic now and it's not going away. Hopefully it just fades into being a seasonal flu or less as many viruses do.

[thethe]

There will always be a convenient variant to explain why the vaccines are 20% of what was promised.

[sturg33]

It would have with Alpha which is what the vaccine was designed to stop. But Delta sprung up which pretty much made herd immunity impossible. Covid is endemic now and it's not going away. Hopefully it just fades into being a seasonal flu or less as many viruses do.

Right now we get to go chase omicron... we get to 80% and then the very scary Pi variant will be here... gonna have to get a booster for that before we can loosen restrictions.

it is so obvious what the government is doing here. I think its wearing off on most people who don't live in a blue city, though

[Jaw]

If the omicron variant is already here (and in Western Europe), why exactly are we still banning travel from countries in southern Africa?

The logic I was given is that it will slow the spread of the newer variant to allow more time to study it before it's widespread. But the same person told me that it looks less dangerous than Delta and it might be better to allow this one to become widespread.

I think this whole thing has shown how little faith we should have in the national health apparatus. They've been stumbling around like a kid at their first keg party.

[acesfull86]

The logic I was given is that it will slow the spread of the newer variant to allow more time to study it before it's widespread. But the same person told me that it looks less dangerous than Delta and it might be better to allow this one to become widespread.

I think this whole thing has shown how little faith we should have in the national health apparatus. They've been stumbling around like a kid at their first keg party.

It feels like “well, we’ve gotta do something” is the central driver, logic be damned. (coming from the national health apparatus)

[thethe]

Its so fitting that Germany is voting on creating second class citizens.

[Tapate50]

Seems like the last year or so woulda been a good time to promote health and wellness and exercise

[sturg33]

Seems like the last year or so woulda been a good time to promote health and wellness and exercise

Sadly - relying on the government to promote what is best for citizens is never going to happen. Individuals must make decisions that are best for them... but the government insists on taking control over more of lives every day

[striker42]

Right now we get to go chase omicron... we get to 80% and then the very scary Pi variant will be here... gonna have to get a booster for that before we can loosen restrictions.

it is so obvious what the government is doing here. I think its wearing off on most people who don't live in a blue city, though

I think our best hope right now is that we can save as many people as we can with vaccines and treatments until the severity of the virus decreases naturally as viruses tend to do.

Don't get me wrong, I don't agree with lockdowns and all kinds of restrictions either. I just think we need to strive for what protections we can and carry on with life.

[zitothebrave]

I'm no virologist, and never claimed to be, but the numbers seem funny to me if you're correct. Using Vermont (most vaccinated) as an example...

Last year 7-day avg for cases was 90. This year 7-day avg for cases is 349. This is a 287.8% increase. Then you have to consider natural antibodies and vaccination rates have got up immensely. Another thing to consider is since vaccinated don't get as sick, they most likely don't test as much.

R0 for alpha was 2.79, and R0 for delta is 5.09, so an increase of 82.1%.

I certainly could be reasoning this wrong though.

ETA... Vermont vaccination rate is 76.1% of all eligible

Vermont had heavy lockdown restrictions last year and strict mask mandates last year. I know I live 15 miles from the border.

[striker42]

I'm no virologist, and never claimed to be, but the numbers seem funny to me if you're correct. Using Vermont (most vaccinated) as an example...

Last year 7-day avg for cases was 90. This year 7-day avg for cases is 349. This is a 287.8% increase. Then you have to consider natural antibodies and vaccination rates have got up immensely. Another thing to consider is since vaccinated don't get as sick, they most likely don't test as much.

R0 for alpha was 2.79, and R0 for delta is 5.09, so an increase of 82.1%.

I certainly could be reasoning this wrong though.

ETA... Vermont vaccination rate is 76.1% of all eligible

An R0 increase doesn't result in a linear increase in cases, it results in an exponential increase.

Let's say Alpha's R0 was 3 and Delta's is 5. That errs on the side of caution and makes the math easy.

With Alpha, the first person with it would give it to 3 people (2nd generation). Those 3 would give it to 3 each for 9 more cases (3rd gen), and so on. Here's what that looks like

1 - 1st Gen
3 - 2nd Gen
9 - 3rd Gen
18 - 4th Gen
54 - 5th Gen
162 - 6th Gen
486 - 7th Gen
1,458 - 8th Gen
4,374 - 9th Gen
13,122 - 10th Gen


Now let's look at Delta with an R0 of 5:

1 - 1st Gen
5 - 2nd Gen
25 - 3rd Gen
125 - 4th Gen
625 - 5th Gen
3,125 - 6th Gen
15,625 - 7th Gen
78,125 - 8th Gen
390,625 - 9th Gen
1,953,125 - 10th Gen

The 10th generation for Delta would be 148 times larger than Alpha. So a 287.8% increase is actually not out of line. In fact, it's probably showing Delta doesn't have ideal room to spread.

[thethe]

A virus on its own does not have a R naught.

Its primarily dependent on the environment.

You can have the most contagious virus in the world but its if captivated then it has a 0 R naught.

And since the vaccines are not preventing the Delta variant the protection you are seeing is primarily coming from natural infection most likely.

[striker42]

A virus on its own does not have a R naught.

Its primarily dependent on the environment.

You can have the most contagious virus in the world but its if captivated then it has a 0 R naught.

And since the vaccines are not preventing the Delta variant the protection you are seeing is primarily coming from natural infection most likely.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...vaccine-status

You're awfully certain about the vaccines not preventing Delta considering the data doesn't support your position.

[zitothebrave]

A virus on its own does not have a R naught.

Its primarily dependent on the environment.

You can have the most contagious virus in the world but its if captivated then it has a 0 R naught.

And since the vaccines are not preventing the Delta variant the protection you are seeing is primarily coming from natural infection most likely.

I don't think telling a story or putting on a show will stop a virus from spreading.

[thethe]

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...vaccine-status

You're awfully certain about the vaccines not preventing Delta considering the data doesn't support your position.

You have literally said this yourself when you rationalize why infections are up despite vaccinations being where they are.

[thewupk]

It would have with Alpha which is what the vaccine was designed to stop. But Delta sprung up which pretty much made herd immunity impossible. Covid is endemic now and it's not going away. Hopefully it just fades into being a seasonal flu or less as many viruses do.

I agree with that. But sadly vaccine resistant variants have popped up to make it virtually impossible to get herd immunity like we once hoped for. So it's time to stop acting like this is still a goal. Masks aren't stopping the spread. Vaccines aren't stopping the spread. Let those who are at risk get the shot and let's move on with our lives.

[thethe]

I agree with that. But sadly vaccine resistant variants have popped up to make it virtually impossible to get herd immunity like we once hoped for. So it's time to stop acting like this is still a goal. Masks aren't stopping the spread. Vaccines aren't stopping the spread. Let those who are at risk get the shot and let's move on with our lives.

You know why vaccine resistant variants popped up so fast?

HMMMMMMM

[striker42]

You have literally said this yourself when you rationalize why infections are up despite vaccinations being where they are.

Your statement was that vaccines don't prevent Delta and the only protection we're seeing is from natural immunity. That's factually incorrect which is what I was showing.

Vaccines offer protection but not perfect protection. There are still breakthroughs. But the numbers continue to show that the worst of the spread is in unvaccinated populations.

So in many cases vaccines have prevented Covid infections and they absolutely are offering protection as is the protection from natural infections. In fact, those with both probably have the most protection at this point.

[striker42]

You know why vaccine resistant variants popped up so fast?

HMMMMMMM

I'd like to hear your theory. Especially since Omicron popped up in Africa where the vaccination rate isn't great.