Sure. Houston.Originally Posted by nsacpi
Sure. Houston.
I think you are either selling Heyward short or don't know the current state of baseball economics. Average players are making around 13-14 million a year right now on the open market. Heyward is quite a bit better then that.
Altuve isn't a slugger. Their catcher isn't. Rasmus isn't. Others have HR numbers inflated by their ballparks.
Shows you what a great bargain Markakis is.
That's his value to me if I am a GM AND have a need. That's a $90M investment. If he can get more than that, and I don't doubt that he will, then I wouldn't be signing him.
So you value Heyward as being a tick above average? Just so we're clear.
Best move of the offseason
Altuve had 15hr and 40 2b as a second baseman.
Rasmus had 25hr and 23 2b as an of.
Castro the catcher had 11hr and 19 2b in 337 AB.
Houston as a team had 230HR.
I think they could afford to take on a RF who does everything well except hit for the power you would typically want. I'm not saying that I would do it. It certainly wouldn't be my first choice. But for the right price...
He's significantly above average in some areas and below in others. If he kept his game as is and increased his power where he was a 30hr/year threat year in and year out then he would be elite and should be paid that way. But, I wouldn't pay him as elite based on the potential that he might become elite, especially given the evidence against that.
I'm not worried about what others pay. I would pay what it took to get the players that I needed to build my team within the bounds of my payroll restrictions.
Dumbest and most inexplicable Braves move of the offseason. They signed a RF with no power to a team severely lacking in power, with no internal power options, coming off injury to a contract that limits flexibility during a rebuilding period, with no apparent appetite to move him for value should the opportunity arise.
Just baffling.
I think Heyward probably gets $20 MM AAV easy, but I think anyone who goes higher than that is guessing the power will return.
It will be interesting to see if he asks for (and gets) an opt-out clause. I think if a team would do that, it would push down the AAV in return for the opt-out.
If Heyward would sign for 15 a year I would love to have him.
I think he will get mid 20's with no opt-out. If he gets a contract with an opt-out after say 3-4 years I think it would be in the low 20's range.
And honestly if I was running a team I would be all over someone like Heyward wanting that opt out. You would get him at presumarly lower value prices, get his best years of the contract, and if he performs watch him leave and sign someowhere else while not having to deal with the likely decline that comes with most mega deals.
Without an opt out I think he'll get close to 30. Closer to 30 than 25.
One would be rolling the dice, but I tend to agree. Heyward's puzzling power outage would seem to be something a team would want more than Heyward. I'd do the old Furcal trick with him and front-load the contract and then have a team opt-out. Of course, Heyward would never sign something like that.
Certainly possible. Depends what the bar is going to be set at for $/War. If it tops 8 million this year then it certainly might. I do think Heyward will be paid less than your typical 6 WAR player since he gets more value out of his defense than most and that likely decreases his yearly rate by a couple of million.
Hamels looks unbeatable right now.
I'm thinking he gets valued as a 4 WAR player and the going rate this off-season for position players will be around $7M/WAR. I believe I'm being conservative on both scores.
Funny that the Rangers got him to really make a run next year for when Darvish returns and yet he could lead the mto the ALCS today.
Dalyn (10-14-2015)
Ozzie Smith was once the highest paid player in the game and most of that was predicated on his defense. But that was a different era and it would be surprising to me if Heyward got close to $30 MM AAV with his power numbers where they are. I think he had a very solid season and the power may return, but that would be the risk a team would take. Heyward's never going to hurt a team, but at some point ROI may get dicey if he continues as a < 20 HR guy.
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