Official Offseason Thread

[Russ2dollas]

The fear with JD is that he falls completely off a cliff in the next couple years. His contact rates are trending down, and he wouldn’t be the first late blooming slugger to suddenly stop hitting in his mid-30s.

The idea of selling high on Riley is based on his horrid contact rates. This might be his absolute high point in terms of value. Guys like Gallo and Alfaro and Baez make similar rates work because they either play a premium position, or hit the ball harder than any other human on earth. Riley doesn’t possess those other traits to make up for the lack of contact and zone recognition.

With Anderson the idea is his spin rates won’t produce an MLB quality breaking ball. We see evidence that he is a fastball/change guy in his reverse splits (change works well on LHH), and that could point to less experienced hitters struggling with an MLB quality change...which won’t be the case at the MLB level.

I am against trading Waters for KB unless he’s pretty much the whole package. The other guys are hopefully being sold high in exchange for an MVP contender in his prime that can play a competent 3B/LF at bargain salaries for 2 years. To me, that’s much preferable to giving JD 4/100.

I’ll need help with future value on this.

When I look at excess value Riley plus wright is a massive overpay by the braves.

I know some ppl are following spin rates. Change ups are not spin rate dependent as I understand it. It would be a worry making anderson fastball more hittable, but not a lot. Isn’t the data something like ten percent more hittable at his velocity?

I think the consensus on Anderson this year dropped him from a 1-2 to a 3. That’s really valuable to give up for two expensive seasons of bryant. At least for me.

I get Riley has real issues. Wright as well. I get the cubs don’t have to trade him. But I don’t see any way I’m giving any of our top 3 for Bryant.

I’m thinking I’m not doing Riley, wight an touki unless they are eating mo ey so we can put a real bat in lf.

[tululush]

I’ll need help with future value on this.

When I look at excess value Riley plus wright is a massive overpay by the braves.

I know some ppl are following spin rates. Change ups are not spin rate dependent as I understand it. It would be a worry making anderson fastball more hittable, but not a lot. Isn’t the data something like ten percent more hittable at his velocity?

I think the consensus on Anderson this year dropped him from a 1-2 to a 3. That’s really valuable to give up for two expensive seasons of bryant. At least for me.

I get Riley has real issues. Wright as well. I get the cubs don’t have to trade him. But I don’t see any way I’m giving any of our top 3 for Bryant.

I’m thinking I’m not doing Riley, wight an touki unless they are eating mo ey so we can put a real bat in lf.

I’d be down for giving them any prospect they wanted outside of Pache or Waters if they ate significant money. Then I’d make two identical low ball offers, both to Ozuna and Donaldson, and say whoever accepts first we’ll sign.

[bravesfanMatt]

I’d be down for giving them any prospect they wanted outside of Pache or Waters if they ate significant money. Then I’d make two identical low ball offers, both to Ozuna and Donaldson, and say whoever accepts first we’ll sign.

So you would trade for KB and still sign JD? Not sure I like that idea. I know kB can play left but he is great at 3rd. But man that lineup would be stacked.

[NYCBrave]

The thing about the Cubs is, they are still in the middle of a contention window. Not sure they'd be able to get away with trading Bryant for prospects only. Wonder if they'd demand a MLB level piece in any type of deal, which would lower the prospect value.

[Hudson2]

The thing about the Cubs is, they are still in the middle of a contention window. Not sure they'd be able to get away with trading Bryant for prospects only. Wonder if they'd demand a MLB level piece in any type of deal, which would lower the prospect value.

They might view Riley and Wright as MLB ready. I’m sure Enders name has came up in talks but I don’t see AA trading him.

[Russ2dollas]

If they want one of the big 3 I’d be looking at Wilson Contreras.

In real life the combo deals don’t happen. But I’d look at a big deal for wc and Bryant. Move flowers in the deal.

[Enscheff]

I’ll need help with future value on this.

When I look at excess value Riley plus wright is a massive overpay by the braves.

I know some ppl are following spin rates. Change ups are not spin rate dependent as I understand it. It would be a worry making anderson fastball more hittable, but not a lot. Isn’t the data something like ten percent more hittable at his velocity?

I think the consensus on Anderson this year dropped him from a 1-2 to a 3. That’s really valuable to give up for two expensive seasons of bryant. At least for me.

I get Riley has real issues. Wright as well. I get the cubs don’t have to trade him. But I don’t see any way I’m giving any of our top 3 for Bryant.

I’m thinking I’m not doing Riley, wight an touki unless they are eating mo ey so we can put a real bat in lf.

Bryant is something like a 10 win player the next 2 seasons, will be paid about $45M, and can fake it in LF as well as play a competent 3b. That’s $50M in surplus value. He will also assuredly be given a QO, gaining the Braves a pick when he leaves in 2 years.

Riley is a former 55 ($46M) with contact and pitch recognition red flags so concerning he may not be a MLB hitter at a corner. Anderson is a 55 ($34M) with spin rate concerns so serious he may not even possess a breaking ball at all. Wright is a 50 ($21M) who is trending down, and hasn’t shown much of anything at any level despite me being in love with the draft pick.

So yes, Riley plus Wright adds up to an overpay, but they may be currently at peak value. One more 200 PA sample at the MLB level for Riley could very well show his contact rates aren’t going to improve. Anderson’s breaking ball may already be known garbage. Wright could continue to be mediocre and just getting older.

I don’t know anything for real about Anderson’s stuff since we don’t have access to MiLB statcast data, but I can’t think of a successful SP without a breaking ball. I have very little faith in Riley suddenly learning how to make contact. And as much as I’ve been the high man on Wright around here, it’s time to realize it’s possible he may simply not be very good...though again I have no MiLB statcast data to go by.

So yeah, if the case is that these 3 assets are losing value the more they get exposed, I would be comfortable overpaying with them to get 2 years of an MVP candidate in his prime at a position of extreme need.

[clvclv]

They might view Riley and Wright as MLB ready. I’m sure Enders name has came up in talks but I don’t see AA trading him.

Not really sure why Ender would hold things up. If Theo would bite on a Riley, Wright, Ender package for Bryant, AA could turn around and use Ender's money to sign Corey Dickerson and platoon Markakis and Duvall in RF until Pache's ready around the break. At that point Acuna would slide back over to RF and you use Markakis and Duvall as your primary pinch-hitters.

Dickerson would fit nicely between Bryant and d'Arnaud. Fangraphs projected him to get a 2 year/$16 million deal. With the money saved between what you'd need to pay Donaldson instead of Bryant, bump the AAV to try to get Dickerson to take a one year deal. If he won't, he could assume Donaldson's role in 2021 when Waters takes over in LF.

[zbhargrove]

The thing about the Cubs is, they are still in the middle of a contention window. Not sure they'd be able to get away with trading Bryant for prospects only. Wonder if they'd demand a MLB level piece in any type of deal, which would lower the prospect value.

I don't see how the Cubs are in the middle of any contention window. They are clearly towards the end, IMO... they look like a fringe playoff team, and not a team that is a legit WS threat anymore. Considering they can't really add anymore payroll, their window is clearly closing shut.

[Hudson2]

Not really sure why Ender would hold things up. If Theo would bite on a Riley, Wright, Ender package for Bryant, AA could turn around and use Ender's money to sign Corey Dickerson and platoon Markakis and Duvall in RF until Pache's ready around the break. At that point Acuna would slide back over to RF and you use Markakis and Duvall as your primary pinch-hitters.

Dickerson would fit nicely between Bryant and d'Arnaud. Fangraphs projected him to get a 2 year/$16 million deal. With the money saved between what you'd need to pay Donaldson instead of Bryant, bump the AAV to try to get Dickerson to take a one year deal. If he won't, he could assume Donaldson's role in 2021 when Waters takes over in LF.

Then why wouldn’t the Cubs just sign Dickerson and get another prospect in the deal? Ender isn’t being traded imo.

[clvclv]

Then why wouldn’t the Cubs just sign Dickerson and get another prospect in the deal? Ender isn’t being traded imo.

He might, he might not - who knows? The point is, he's certainly not untouchable as you suggest if AA needs to go get a 3B to hit behind Freddie - especially when Pache should be ready to step in and perform just as well (or better) by June or July.

If you thought one of the problems was the fact that the lineup wasn't deep enough in 2019, what on earth suggests it will be deeper if you don't have a player of Donaldson/Bryant's caliber hitting 4th in 2020?

Riley's certainly not ready to be that guy. Camargo isn't the answer. d'Arnaud isn't either. Someone like Ozuna will require a 3-4 year commitment and still requires you to hope that Riley corrects his contact issues. Acuna can certainly handle CF well enough defensively if needed for a couple months until you can plug Pache in. This team needs a #4 hitter much more than it needs Ender's CF defense hitting in the #7/#8 hole. A simple "fix" would be to move Acuna back down behind Freddie, but does anybody really think that's coming - whether it makes sense or not? Even if AA somehow convinced Snitker to do that, you go back to having Markakis in the #5 hole behind Acuna - I can't imagine anyone wants that either.

Ender's great to have, but he's another year older and will be a step slower - he's not someone you need to let get in the way of having an offense that's at least as good as last year's if you hope to contend for more than just the NL East in 2020.

[Enscheff]

Then why wouldn’t the Cubs just sign Dickerson and get another prospect in the deal? Ender isn’t being traded imo.

That’s the point, and it’s good to see someone actually looking at the deal from the perspective of the other team.

If the Cubs trade Bryant they are probably going to be looking to do a soft reset and be back in contention very quickly. Converting 2 years of a star like Bryant into a few cheap MLB ready guys with lots of control is precisely how that’s done. In fact, the Cubs were the team that fueled the Yanks quick rebuild, so they have a front row seat to how it’s done.

A package of Riley and an arm like Anderson or Wright gives them potential impact players that will be ready as soon as this season. A guy like Ender is something they can grab on the FA market whenever they need to fill such a hole in the roster, so why target him in a trade?

[Skeeter31]

He might, he might not - who knows? The point is, he's certainly not untouchable as you suggest if AA needs to go get a 3B to hit behind Freddie - especially when Pache should be ready to step in and perform just as well (or better) by June or July.

If you thought one of the problems was the fact that the lineup wasn't deep enough in 2019, what on earth suggests it will be deeper if you don't have a player of Donaldson/Bryant's caliber hitting 4th in 2020?

Riley's certainly not ready to be that guy. Camargo isn't the answer. d'Arnaud isn't either. Someone like Ozuna will require a 3-4 year commitment and still requires you to hope that Riley corrects his contact issues. Acuna can certainly handle CF well enough defensively if needed for a couple months until you can plug Pache in. This team needs a #4 hitter much more than it needs Ender's CF defense hitting in the #7/#8 hole. A simple "fix" would be to move Acuna back down behind Freddie, but does anybody really think that's coming - whether it makes sense or not? Even if AA somehow convinced Snitker to do that, you go back to having Markakis in the #5 hole behind Acuna - I can't imagine anyone wants that either.

Ender's great to have, but he's another year older and will be a step slower - he's not someone you need to let get in the way of having an offense that's at least as good as last year's if you hope to contend for more than just the NL East in 2020.

I love how Pache keeps getting spoken of like he’s a pizza or something that will be done and ready for pickup in 20 minutes.

[UNCBlue012]

My ideal scenario is a trade for Lindor, but in the realm of possibility since AA won’t ravage the farm would be a trade of Riley, Wright/Wilson, and a lower-level prospect for Bryant and signing Ozuna, who is way better than nearly everyone seems to think.

This is pretty clearly the deepest lineup in baseball:

Acuna RF
Bryant 3B
Freeman 1B
Ozuna LF
Albies 2B
Swanson SS
TD/Flowers C
Ender CF

Sadly, I doubt those numbers work for our payroll.

[VirginiaBrave]

The Cubs are just asking too much. Just re-sign JD and roll.

[UNCBlue012]

Sources: #Braves have inquired to #Rockies on a Nolan Arenado trade, although discussions between the teams have not been active recently. Atlanta is said to be wary of the salary commitment but has the sort of prospect group Colorado wants in any Arenado deal.

[Russ2dollas]

Bryant is something like a 10 win player the next 2 seasons, will be paid about $45M, and can fake it in LF as well as play a competent 3b. That’s $50M in surplus value. He will also assuredly be given a QO, gaining the Braves a pick when he leaves in 2 years.

Riley is a former 55 ($46M) with contact and pitch recognition red flags so concerning he may not be a MLB hitter at a corner. Anderson is a 55 ($34M) with spin rate concerns so serious he may not even possess a breaking ball at all. Wright is a 50 ($21M) who is trending down, and hasn’t shown much of anything at any level despite me being in love with the draft pick.

So yes, Riley plus Wright adds up to an overpay, but they may be currently at peak value. One more 200 PA sample at the MLB level for Riley could very well show his contact rates aren’t going to improve. Anderson’s breaking ball may already be known garbage. Wright could continue to be mediocre and just getting older.

I don’t know anything for real about Anderson’s stuff since we don’t have access to MiLB statcast data, but I can’t think of a successful SP without a breaking ball. I have very little faith in Riley suddenly learning how to make contact. And as much as I’ve been the high man on Wright around here, it’s time to realize it’s possible he may simply not be very good...though again I have no MiLB statcast data to go by.

So yeah, if the case is that these 3 assets are losing value the more they get exposed, I would be comfortable overpaying with them to get 2 years of an MVP candidate in his prime at a position of extreme need.

I’m still not there. Not that you need to convince me.

There may not be a qualifying offer at the end of Bryant’s deal because of labor issues.

Anderson has a very good change and that has nothing to do with spin rates. I’ve seen him consistently tagged as flashing two plus breaking balls. He’s still very young. We still don’t know what ball he will use.

I’m not giving up 6 years of a stud 3 for Bryant. Not unless there is another move to make us legit World Series team.

He’s really good but I’d rather pay jd 4/100 and keep Anderson.

If cubs will let us overpay with Riley, Wright, mueller/Davidson/touki/Wilson then I’m in. That’s still a big overpay based on the excess value math.

If they need Anderson I’d love a Bryant and Contreras package with Anderson, Riley, Wright, Contreras/Langeliers, mueller, Wilson flowers. I get that it will never happen. They’d at least want waters in that deal.

I really think we need to find someone to take the poo poo platter of aaaa arms we have.

Jd plus Anderson can be more war than Bryant

[Russ2dollas]

Sources: #Braves have inquired to #Rockies on a Nolan Arenado trade, although discussions between the teams have not been active recently. Atlanta is said to be wary of the salary commitment but has the sort of prospect group Colorado wants in any Arenado deal.

Of course.
Not asking is malpractice
It is a ton of money
We do have prospects

Rockies have to come to the realization like the marlins did that their guy isn’t a big asset at that number. Everything sounds like the Rockies are expecting a big return for him and are not getting Rendon deal shows there is no surplus value on him.

[clvclv]

I love how Pache keeps getting spoken of like he’s a pizza or something that will be done and ready for pickup in 20 minutes.

For all intents and purposes, he is - assuming health of course.

He's been ready to handle the defensive part of the job for over a year - Ender's presence has allowed them to take their time with his bat. There have been enough reports over the last couple of years that have said the Braves "could have" been more aggressive with his timeline (as well as Waters' for that matter) had they needed to that starting him in Gwinnett this year is mostly about gaming his clock. After his slow start, Pache still bounced back and his .274/.337/.411/.747 line in Gwinnett almost mirrored his .278/.340/.474/.815 start in Mississippi after he started to make his adjustments.

He can definitely use the first month or two to work on his patience and plate discipline, but that's not that far off from Ender's career .338 OBP, .390 SLG, and .728 OPS - and there doesn't seem to be much that suggests he wouldn't be a perfectly respectful replacement for Inciarte by July after another 50-60 games against AAA pitching.

[nsacpi]

Of course.
Not asking is malpractice
It is a ton of money
We do have prospects

Rockies have to come to the realization like the marlins did that their guy isn’t a big asset at that number. Everything sounds like the Rockies are expecting a big return for him and are not getting Rendon deal shows there is no surplus value on him.

I'll say it again. Trevor Story has a manageable salary. He would make more sense.