Originally Posted by
Enscheff
We can go on BaseballSavant and filter xBA on all out/hits, then remove HRs and Ks to get xBABIP based on batted ball velo and launch angle (but not taking into account direction). Here is every Braves hitter with 50+ PAs actual BABIP vs xBABIP:
1 Riley, Austin .405 .355
2 Heredia, Guillermo .364 .356
3 Contreras, William .300 .371
4 Acuña Jr., Ronald .293 .337
5 Swanson, Dansby .282 .331
6 Albies, Ozzie .269 .321
7 d'Arnaud, Travis .262 .328
8 Adrianza, Ehire .250 .326
9 Ozuna, Marcell .244 .326
10 Freeman, Freddie .227 .344
That .355 xBABIP for Riley means he may not be due for as much regression as we think. It's only 121 balls in play though, and up to this point his xBABIP was in the .280s in previous seasons, so keep in mind the small sample size nature of these values.
No surprise to see Freeman getting absolutely hosed in BABIP though. That .344 value is right in line with his .337 career mark. The extent of his poor batted ball luck is truly remarkable. Maybe it will scare away the dumb teams likely to give him a stupid contract offer, and AA can sign him for reasonable money. He isn't declining at all right now, even though his results seems to indicate he is.
We also see pretty much every Braves hitter getting screwed on BABIP luck...but we already knew that about this offense so far in 2021.