Swanson & Camargo

[msstate7]

How did all the resident prospect experts around here miss that Carmargo is essentially equal to Dans and Ozzie when they were playing in the same infield last year?

They all played at Mississippi. Here's each..

OA .321/.391/.467 ops = .858
JC .267/.304/.379 ops = .683
DS .261/.342/.402 ops = .744

[thethe]

that's a fairly typical BABIP...you could argue a little higher for both Swanson and Camargo...maybe .320...but neither seems likely to be a high BABIP player

I think when someone uses the average of all mlb hitters it is depressed because there are a lot of bad hitters. Maybe camargo is one of them as well. However...it's no surprise when you consistently see the best players in baseball hit for over 330 BABIP. Should we normalize their results to project in the future while they are in their 20s?

There needs to be some sort of adjusted babip based on their batted ball profile. Camargo has completely reshaped his game by decreasing groundballs/increasing flyballs/increasing line drive percentage. Something has changed in camargo recently and maybe them at reverts back but I'm a believer in development taking many paths.

[nsacpi]

That's fair, I don't see a career .340 BABIP for either of them. But I think one of them could end up doing it throughout whole seasons throughout their careers.

Yeah. Just need to recognize that .340 would represent a career year and don't attach a valuation based on that being sustainable.

[nsacpi]

I think when someone uses the average of all mlb hitters it is depressed because there are a lot of bad hitters. Maybe camargo is one of them as well. However...it's no surprise when you consistently see the best players in baseball hit for over 330 BABIP. Should we normalize their results to project in the future while they are in their 20s?

There needs to be some sort of adjusted babip based on their batted ball profile. Camargo has completely reshaped his game by decreasing groundballs/increasing flyballs/increasing line drive percentage. Something has changed in camargo recently and maybe them at reverts back but I'm a believer in development taking many paths.

Pick a sample of players who were good players and look at their prime years. That'll give you an idea of what can be expected from Camargo and Swanson on a best case scenario.

[50PoundHead]

How did all the resident prospect experts around here miss that Carmargo is essentially equal to Dans and Ozzie when they were playing in the same infield last year?

I think it's safe to say that Camargo has been third in the pecking order behind those two. He's been the guy who moved to a different position to accommodate the teams' goals for Albies and Swanson.

It's too early to say much of anything on Camargo except that he doesn't look to be overwhelmed at all. He's not going to keep up this pace and probably projects long-term as a very good utility guy. But that's not to say he couldn't be something more. His power numbers have been up the past two years after profiling as a ball-in-play slap hitter. Guys hit development plateaus at several junctures before getting their skills to the next level. That may be happening with Camargo. It's too early to tell. All I can say is that the reviews of his defense have always been positive and a guy who can play three infield positions well and is a switch-hitter who doesn't look lost at the plate has value. Eduardo Nunez may be a comp of sorts, although I think Camargo is better defensively, especially at SS.

[nsacpi]

I think it's safe to say that Camargo has been third in the pecking order behind those two. He's been the guy who moved to a different position to accommodate the teams' goals for the other two.

It's too early to say much of anything on Camargo except that he doesn't look to be overwhelmed at all. He's not going to keep up this pace and probably projects long-term as a very good utility guy. But that's not to say he couldn't be something more. His power numbers have been up the past two years after profiling as a ball-in-play slap hitter. Guys hit development plateaus at several junctures before getting their skills to the next level. That may be happening with Camargo. It's too early to tell. All I can say is that the reviews of his defense have always been positive and a guy who can play three infield positions well and is a switch-hitter who doesn't look lost at the plate has value. Eduardo Nunez may be a comp of sorts, although I think Camargo is better defensively, especially at SS.

The hint of increased power is the potential game changer for Camargo. The rest has been there all along. If he evolves into a 15 home run guy, he will be more than a utility player. Actually it doesn't have to be home runs. If he is able to sustain his current ISO (.173) he will get regular playing time, even as the BABIP normalizes.

[TheBravos]

He didn't play like this last year and maybe he's just hot. I keep waiting for him to level off, but danged if he just keeps surprising me. With his defense, if he has gotten the offense down...VERY solid everyday player.

[nsacpi]

He didn't play like this last year and maybe he's just hot. I keep waiting for him to level off, but danged if he just keeps surprising me. With his defense, if he has gotten the offense down...VERY solid everyday player.

He's had almost 250 plate appearances combined in AAA and majors. That's enough to get my attention. The major league BABIP (.413 so far) will normalize. But he did very well in AAA on a .340 BABIP. His strikeout rate was 15% in AAA. This is what I'm talking about when I say if he (or Swanson for that matter) can bring down the strikeout rate below 20% they can be valuable major league players even on a normal BABIP.

[msstate7]

I want to believe in camargo. I love the guy; but I got burned on jace great start 2 years ago, so I'm just cautiously optismic

[Super]

I want to believe in camargo. I love the guy; but I got burned on jace great start 2 years ago, so I'm just cautiously optismic

Jace had the better minor league numbers, as well, but he was also a good bit older. Camargo is still pretty young.

[gilesfan]

IMO, Albies will be the best player of the group. It's just a matter of time.

I think Swanson was projected too high. He's an above average glove, but everything else is pretty much average with him. I just think he's a guy that will grind to max out his average tools and be a solid starter. Albies has another gear.

Camargo is just on a BABIP fueled heater. While every so often these low walk, high strikeout middle infielders work out, it is very rare. Not a ton different than Garcia's heater. I think he's a useful utility guy that will provide power in spurts and then look clueless for 6 weeks racking up tons of Ks.

[nsacpi]

IMO, Albies will be the best player of the group. It's just a matter of time.

I think Swanson was projected too high. He's an above average glove, but everything else is pretty much average with him. I just think he's a guy that will grind to max out his average tools and be a solid starter. Albies has another gear.

Camargo is just on a BABIP fueled heater. While every so often these low walk, high strikeout middle infielders work out, it is very rare. Not a ton different than Garcia's heater. I think he's a useful utility guy that will provide power in spurts and then look clueless for 6 weeks racking up tons of Ks.

But Camargo has not been a high strikeout guy. 15% in AAA, 17% in AA, 12% in high A. I'm still of the view that he ends up being a very useful utility infielder. But I think if the strikeout rate returns to below 20% and the hints of power pan out (two big if's admittedly) he has a chance to be more than a utility player.

[gilesfan]

But Camargo has not been a high strikeout guy. 15% in AAA, 17% in AA, 12% in high A. I'm still of the view that he ends up being a very useful utility infielder. But I think if the strikeout rate returns to below 20% and the hints of power pan out (two big if's admittedly) he has a chance to be more than a utility player.

IMO, thats because he is a free swinger. It's easier to make contact in the minors. What if he traded contact for power? I don't think he will be bad; probably a guy that runs out a crazy month and people put in HOF. Then struggles for a month and people are ready to demote.

[Preacher]

The great thing with Carmago is he's starting to establish a floor as a good utility player, that by itself has quite a bit of value. Maybe he can be more than that; but if not we should still have a pretty valuable piece on our bench going forward.

[Enscheff]

I think when someone uses the average of all mlb hitters it is depressed because there are a lot of bad hitters. Maybe camargo is one of them as well. However...it's no surprise when you consistently see the best players in baseball hit for over 330 BABIP. Should we normalize their results to project in the future while they are in their 20s?

There needs to be some sort of adjusted babip based on their batted ball profile. Camargo has completely reshaped his game by decreasing groundballs/increasing flyballs/increasing line drive percentage. Something has changed in camargo recently and maybe them at reverts back but I'm a believer in development taking many paths.

There is, it's called xBABIP. Guys who hit the ball very hard, guys that hit less FBs, guys that are fast, and guys that don't hit into shifts tend to have higher BABIP.

Regardless, Camargo isn't going to maintain a .400+ BABIP. The absolute cieling for him would be in the .340 range. He is due for serious regression from his current .855 OPS once his BABIP drop from .413.

[thewupk]

There is, it's called xBABIP. Guys who hit the ball very hard, guys that hit less FBs, guys that are fast, and guys that don't hit into shifts tend to have higher BABIP.

Regardless, Camargo isn't going to maintain a .400+ BABIP. The absolute cieling for him would be in the .340 range. He is due for serious regression from his current .855 OPS once his BABIP drop from .413.

His xBABIP based is .295 which isn't a huge surprise. Camargo hasn't hit a ton of line drives and pops the ball up frequently. Now statcast data would give us better information but I don't have that available and it doesn't seem like there is really much of a need. Camargo is on a BABIP fueled streak which predictability gets over hyped here and when it normalizes people will forget all him.

[Enscheff]

Now that I'm at my work PC, and FG has last night's stats updated, here are Camargo's present numbers with BABIPs of .300, .320, and .340. I will remove singles and doubles in a 2:1 ratio as I remove his hits since that's the ratio in which he has accumulated them (will err on the side of removing more singles to give him the best possible outcome).

He currently has 33 hits in 80 balls in play (HRs are not included), for a BABIP of 0.4125.

.300 BABIP: 24 hits in 80 balls in play, removed 6 singles and 3 doubles, leads to a slash line of .231/.264/.375 (.639 OPS)
.320 BABIP: 26 hits in 80 balls in play, removed 5 singles and 2 doubles, leads to a slash line of .250/.282/.404 (.686 OPS)
.340 BABIP: 27 hits in 80 balls in play, removed 4 singles and 2 doubles, leads to a slash line of .260/.291/.413 (.704 OPS)

We aren't having this discussion if Camargo had a sustainable BABIP right now.

Why is this important? So future decisions aren't made based on results that are unsustainable. A stat is only useful if it can be used to predict future performance. Otherwise, it's nothing more than a curiosity.

Remember when Chris Johnson won the batting title in 2013 on the back of an unsustainable BABIP of .394? Remember when the Braves then foolishly gave him a $23.5M contract extension based off that year? Remember when he came crashing back to Earth the next year with a .650 OPS after his BABIP normalized to .345 in 2014? Finally, remember when the Braves had to take on Swisher and Bourn to dump that contract?

Yeah, I remember all that. Let's not make another decision based on unsustainable BABIP. OK?

[thethe]

Looks like an OPS or wRC+ bet in the making....

[thewupk]

Looks like an OPS or wRC+ bet in the making....

You do like to bet on the impossible

[Enscheff]

His xBABIP based is .295 which isn't a huge surprise. Camargo hasn't hit a ton of line drives and pops the ball up frequently. Now statcast data would give us better information but I don't have that available and it doesn't seem like there is really much of a need. Camargo is on a BABIP fueled streak which predictability gets over hyped here and when it normalizes people will forget all him.

Thanks. I still can't seem to find xBABIP numbers. Where do you get them from?

Link please.