Paid off big time being patient with Julio, maybe it will pay even more on this deal.
Paid off big time being patient with Julio, maybe it will pay even more on this deal.
Ivermectin Man
If the option year is just $12 million, then I assume the years before that will be cheaper, including the first FA season. If so, then I'm on-board. This is basically the Braves betting on their evaluation of Teheran, and the organization has earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to evaluating pitching.
This was a perfect move. I know there is unpredictability with pitchers but I have believe Teheran would be a stud since he was signed. When comparisons like Pedro are thrown around at that age it catches your eye.
Natural Immunity Croc
I also think it shows that Wren is doing everything he can to keep this core together.
Now lets get a deal done for Simmons/Minor/Medlen/Heyward/Upton.
Natural Immunity Croc
JohnAdcox (02-14-2014)
These are the types of gambles you've gotta make when it comes to the payroll situation like ours. I like it.
yeezus (02-14-2014)
Minor is further along so he would need more money. For a 6 year deal it would probably be 6/40-45 at least
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
From the info available I'm guessing the numbers look like this:
2014: 500K
2015: 600K
2016: 4M
2017: 6M
2018: 9M
2019: 11M
2020: 12M option with 1M buyout
Probably a small bonus up front.
It is a good contract if he is a 2 WAR/year player or better. Pretty likely given he was a 2.4 WAR player last year.
I've always felt the priority should be on Heyward, Freeman, Simmons rather than the pitchers. But this contract is pretty modest and should not preclude signing Heyward and Simmons later.
There is some downside risk since any pitcher can regress or get hurt. But it is a reasonable risk to take given the upside. If Teheran develops it could be a Chris Sale type contract situation.
Last edited by nsacpi; 02-14-2014 at 11:33 AM.
I bet we see a Simmons extension soon. Hopefully Minor and Upton would be next. Jason is gonna wait it out.
It is easier to get an extension done on club friendly terms with guys like Teheran and Simmons who are not even in their arb years. Minor, Medlen and Upton will be more costly, significantly more costly. Makes me think they are much less likely to get extensions. I see Upton and Heyward as either or. We're not likely to hold on to both long term.
This is the EXACT kind of contract a team with a middle of the pack payroll must make with young talent. The only way to get FA years for cheap is to guarantee the arb years for the player. The player gives up some potential FA money for financial security. If Julio turns into anything resembling an ace, this is the only way the Braves could keep him around past his 6 years of team control. This was a risk they had to take if they want to extend the competitive window.
Guys like Medlen and Minor did not prove their floor was a solid starting pitcher until much later in their careers, so extending them when they are already in arb will be nearly impossible. There is an outside shot for a Minor extension though I imagine.
Extending Simmons should be the top priority now.
Last edited by Enscheff; 02-14-2014 at 11:43 AM.
One side effect of retaining Teheran for a year or two into his free agency years is it reduces the demands on the farm to produce a new starter every year. It makes it easier for the team to trade someone like Cabrera or Hursh if there are needs to be filled.
If he reaches that ace potential that's been projected, and he stays healthy, then it's a bargain. "Get 'em while they're young."
Hawk (02-14-2014)
Lets say he misses a full season somewhere in that period. The loss to the team is 2 WAR. So he would have to average 2.5 WAR in the other four years to make up the loss. There is some cushion built in here so it could still be a decent contract if he misses a full season. Still some risk of course. He could turn into a replacement level pumpkin. Stuff like that happens.
Nice signing. I think it's cleart the guys the team is going after is Freeman, Teheran, Simmons. There is only so much money to go around. I think locking up Simmons and Minor next would be prudent.
Its time to float Heywards name out there and gauge the interest.
jpx7 (02-14-2014)