Mallex Smith - splits and progression

[praeceps93]

I think Mallex's progression will be interesting. He's good against righties and actually tends to do a great job of taking pitches and hitting pitches that are normally hard to get too.

If he can pull a .265/.330 slash line with 25-40 SB (I expect more than 25, but just saying), then I think he'll be fine. I personally think he needs to be a 9-hole hitter, he's no leadoff guy - but who knows.

I think he'll be a good leadoff hitter in time. He's just not there yet in terms of his experience.

[UNCBlue012]

I think he'll be a good leadoff hitter in time. He's just not there yet in terms of his experience.

I'm really stoked about him either way! He seems like a really humble guy. Having someone like Albies or Swanson behind him would be huge.

[auyushu]

Mallex hit well against lefties in the minors (lower power numbers, but that's normal), so I think acting like he won't be able to in the majors due to 50ish ABs is a bit of a reach. Be interesting to see how he adjusts going forward for sure.

[nsacpi]

Mallex hit well against lefties in the minors (lower power numbers, but that's normal), so I think acting like he won't be able to in the majors due to 50ish ABs is a bit of a reach. Be interesting to see how he adjusts going forward for sure.

I was about to point this out. Splits data take a long time to stabilize. His minor numbers are likely to be a better predictor of his future splits than his major league numbers.

My expectation for Mallex is that he'll end up being a solid 2 WAR player whether he ends up in left or center. There is some upside. We just need to keep playing him.

With respect to the comp with Peterson, it is worth keeping in mind that Mallex reached the majors during his age 23 season. Peterson in his age 25 season. That is something to consider when considering his chances to build on his results this year.

[thewupk]

oh they're not compared to their specific positional counterparts? or are LF and CF just closer than I thought? because I'd assume LFers are a fair amount better offensively. but I guess his defense might bridge the gap?

Offense for positions don't matter in the slightest. They are all compared equally and are based off WOBA. The positional adjustment is applied to defense. For example if you are a +10 runs CF then your defensive value is 12.5. 10 for the actual runs you saved and 2.5 for the positional advantage you have of playing center which is a harder position to play. If you are a +10 runs in LF then your defensive value is 3. 10 for the actual amount of runs you saved and -7 for the positional disadvantage because corner outfield spots are much easier to play then center.

The reason why Mallex's WAR would be pretty equal if he played left is because if he was a +10 center fielder then in left he would be something close to +19 or 20 and thus still a 12.5 valued defensive player when you factor in the -7 positional rating. Defense travels so if your good in center then you should be really good in a corner spot. And the positional value you get is supposed to make your total defensive value the same regardless of where you play.

That's why you have seen players like Gardner have insane runs saved numbers in left. It's because he's really a center fielder playing left. The same would happen if either Mallex or Inciarte played left full time.

[thewupk]

but if this is the case, then what's the issue with Inciarte and Mallex together besides lack of power? if they're both capable of good WARs, then WAR is WAR, correct? I think Inciarte was at like 5.6 bWAR last year (3.3 fWAR).

I've never had an issue with both of them being in the outfield at the same time. Assuming neither turn into horrible hitters I would prefer both in the outfield and getting an offense first outfielder to join them. I would play whoever has the best arm in right and then one of Mallex or Inciarte in center if one of them is in right.

[thewupk]

the defensive adjustment for CF is pretty high but requires superior defense to really take advantage of.There is no bat adjustment for any position, it's all just defensive and all bats are compared to each other and not by position. If Mallex posted the same DRS and UZR at LF as he did in CF we would expect around an extra win from his year at CF.

This is true. But you would also expect his DRS and UZR to be higher if he played LF full time.

[bravos4evr]

This is true. But you would also expect his DRS and UZR to be higher if he played LF full time.

yes, but the positional difference will cover most of the extra value.

[thewupk]

yes, but the positional difference will cover most of the extra value.

As my example above noted. They generally equal out. So if your defensive WAR in center is 1.5 it should be close to 1.5 in left as well.

[thewupk]

One thing I like from Mallex so far this year is the lack of fly balls he has hit. While I would like his LD% to be higher than 15% the fact that he's hitting line drives or putting the ball on the ground 75% of the time should ensure he doesn't post horrible BABIP. Use your biggest asset which is your speed.

[bravos4evr]

As my example above noted. They generally equal out. So if your defensive WAR in center is 1.5 it should be close to 1.5 in left as well.

and I mentioned this earlier... why are we having a debate when we agree? lol

[thewupk]

and I mentioned this earlier... why are we having a debate when we agree? lol

i dunno. long day man.

[Russ2dollas]

I still think mallex won't hit enough to be a regular in a corner.

If we have to put him there maybe he gets a platoon partner with Peterson.

I hope mallex and Peterson are better than I think but I see both as fourth of

[bravos4evr]

i dunno. long day man.

me too, I woke up with a damn head cold and a heat index of 104 (ugh) I have been set on grump since 9 am.

[thewupk]

I still think mallex won't hit enough to be a regular in a corner.

If we have to put him there maybe he gets a platoon partner with Peterson.

I hope mallex and Peterson are better than I think but I see both as fourth of

Depends on how he handles lefties and what is around him on the team. If he can be a league average hitter with his defense then he would make a great supporting player on the team. And likely slide to center if/wen Inciarte leaves. But I think you need to find a plus hitter to take the other corner spot.

[jpx7]

But I think you need to find a plus hitter to take the other corner spot.

So...just keep Markakis, right?

[thewupk]

So...just keep Markakis, right?

one can hope

[Enscheff]

The Braves can only have one of Mallex or Inciarte in the OF if they want to compete. Their value comes from being good defenders in CF and "not awful" at the plate. They both need to be in CF, so the Braves need to figure out which one they want, and trade the other. If one of them were RHed it would be perfect, but unfortunately they both hit LHed.

I don't care what WAR says, I doubt there are many playoff teams that had a total of 10 HRs from the OF. Eventually someone has to actually drive runners in with extra base hits for an offense to be truly potent.

Yes, I am ready for folks to foam at the mouth while they explain how a team can win with Smith and Inciarte manning CF and LF because "speed and defense".

[bravos4evr]

The Braves can only have one of Mallex or Inciarte in the OF if they want to compete. Their value comes from being good defenders in CF and "not awful" at the plate. They both need to be in CF, so the Braves need to figure out which one they want, and trade the other. If one of them were RHed it would be perfect, but unfortunately they both hit LHed.

I don't care what WAR says, I doubt there are many playoff teams that had a total of 10 HRs from the OF. Eventually someone has to actually drive runners in with extra base hits for an offense to be truly potent.

Yes, I am ready for folks to foam at the mouth while they explain how a team can win with Smith and Inciarte manning CF and LF because "speed and defense".

don't have to explain it, you just did with your last sentence. win are wins,value is value. It doesn't matter how you get it as long as you do. Being that there is no "recipe for success" as far as making or winning in the playoffs, all sorts of team constructions work (see KC Royals last 2 seasons and their low power OF for example)

[mfree80]

The Braves can only have one of Mallex or Inciarte in the OF if they want to compete. Their value comes from being good defenders in CF and "not awful" at the plate. They both need to be in CF, so the Braves need to figure out which one they want, and trade the other. If one of them were RHed it would be perfect, but unfortunately they both hit LHed.

I don't care what WAR says, I doubt there are many playoff teams that had a total of 10 HRs from the OF. Eventually someone has to actually drive runners in with extra base hits for an offense to be truly potent.

Yes, I am ready for folks to foam at the mouth while they explain how a team can win with Smith and Inciarte manning CF and LF because "speed and defense".

Thank you for your OPINION.

I think they are both dynamic disruptive players who bring something more to the offense than just WAR. Certainly the team does need some power, but having two dynamic guys in the outfield with the power coming from elsewhere is not a bad thing.

Please note the lack of foaming at the mouth....