yupOriginally Posted by thethe
yup
Ivermectin Man
The Braves are one of the youngest teams in the majors and young teams tend to get better even without making big moves. Several of the young players improved in the second half and if they can carry that over to 2014 we will be a far better team. Here are some examples.
Freeman first half 312 at bats .308/.386/.468 w/ 9 HR - second half .335/.408/.544 w/ 14 HR in 239 at bats. If he can produce close to what he did in the second half over a full season he could win the MVP. He could be competing for a batting title and hit close to 40 home runs based on his second half pace. Freeman has had a very linear path of improvement every half season so I dont think its unreasonable to think he could reach that level.
Heyward first half 251 at bats .227/.324/.371 w/ 7 home runs - second half .305/.397/.535 w/7 HR in 137 at bats. For as good as Heyward was in the second half last year he was hitting under .200 for the first 2+ months of the season. A healthy consistent season from Heyward would be major upgrade.
Simmons first half 371 at bats .243/.282/.348 w/8 HR - second half .255/.316/.472 w/9 home runs in 235 at bats. If he repeats that second half in the first half with his defense he will be on the all star team.
Teheran - He started the year with a bad month but after that he put up an ERA under 3 for the rest of the season. He struck out nearly a batter an inning and walked on average 1.5 per start. He could be even better this year.
It always amazes me that people think baseball is so predictable. This time last year people were worried about our starting pitching. Hudson was an old vet in decline, Teheran was coming off a 5+ ERA season in his second season of AAA, and Minor was coming off a 4+ ERA season. Alex Wood was a marginal prospect in A Ball. Evan Gattis was not good enough defensively to play catcher, David Carpenter was a no name reliever with little chance of making the roster, and most braves fans had already crapped on the idea of Chris Johnson starting at 3B.
Who knows what could happen this year. BJ could hit 40 home runs and be MVP for all we know. As it stands right now Wren will have to trade Kimbrel just to get the team under the 100 million payroll budget so adding anything to the 2015 payroll right now would be crazy. This team as is, if healthy with a little luck can win the world series. Doesnt mean they will, but its within a reasonable realm of possibility.
"Donald Trump will serve a second term as president of the United States.
It’s over."
Little Thethe Nov 19, 2020.
RANK PLAYER POSITION TEAM
1 Byron Buxton CF MIN
2 Xander Bogaerts SS BOS
3 Addison Russell SS OAK
4 Carlos Correa SS HOU
5 Oscar Taveras OF STL
6 Francisco Lindor SS CLE
7 Javier Baez SS CHC
8 Miguel Sano 3B MIN
9 Archie Bradley RHP ARI
10 Kyle Zimmer RHP KC
11 Mark Appel RHP HOU
12 Jonathan Gray RHP COL
13 Gregory Polanco CF PIT
14 Julio Urias LHP LAD
15 Kris Bryant 3B CHC
16 Taijuan Walker RHP SEA
17 Eddie Butler RHP COL
18 Corey Seager SS/3B LAD
19 George Springer CF HOU
20 Tyler Glasnow RHP PIT
21 Lucas Giolito RHP WAS
22 Raul Mondesi SS KC
23 Kevin Gausman RHP BAL
24 Noah Syndergaard RHP NYM
25 Braden Shipley RHP ARI
26 Jorge Soler RF CHC
27 Jameson Taillon RHP PIT
28 Albert Almora CF CHC
29 Robert Stephenson RHP CIN
30 Aaron Sanchez RHP TOR
31 Dylan Bundy RHP BAL
32 Nick Castellanos 3B DET
33 Austin Hedges C SD
34 Andrew Heaney LHP MIA
35 Austin Meadows CF PIT
36 Travis d'Arnaud C NYM
37 Dominic Smith 1B NYM
38 Hunter Harvey RHP BAL
39 Matt Wisler RHP SD
40 Lucas Sims RHP ATL
41 Joc Pederson CF LAD
42 Henry Owens LHP BOS
43 Eduardo Rodriguez LHP BAL
44 Jorge Alfaro C TEX
45 Clint Frazier OF CLE
46 J.P. Crawford SS PHI
47 David Dahl OF COL
48 Max Fried LHP SD
49 Eddie Rosario CF/2B MIN
50 Yordano Ventura RHP KC
51 Jackie Bradley Jr. CF BOS
52 Billy Hamilton CF CIN
53 Garin Cecchini 3B BOS
54 Rosell Herrera SS COL
55 Colin Moran 3B MIA
56 Blake Swihart C BOS
57 Stephen Piscotty RF STL
58 Marcus Stroman RHP TOR
59 Erik Johnson RHP CWS
60 Rafael Montero RHP NYM
61 Mookie Betts 2B BOS
62 Alex Meyer RHP MIN
63 Maikel Franco 3B/1B PHI
64 Rougned Odor 2B TEX
65 A.J. Cole RHP WAS
66 Taylor Guerrieri RHP TB
67 C.J. Edwards RHP CHC
68 Gary Sanchez C NYY
69 Kyle Crick RHP SF
70 Mike Foltynewicz RHP HOU
71 Arismendy Alcantara 2B CHC
72 Chris Owings SS ARI
73 Nick Kingham RHP PIT
74 Alen Hanson SS PIT
75 Zach Lee RHP LAD
76 Kohl Stewart RHP MIN
77 Jesse Biddle LHP PHI
78 Jonathan Singleton 1B HOU
79 Hak-Ju Lee SS TB
80 Delino DeShields CF/LF HOU
81 Miguel Almonte RHP KC
82 Vincent Velazquez RHP HOU
83 Brian Goodwin CF WAS
84 Jake Marisnick CF MIA
85 Tyler Austin RF NYY
86 Jonathan Schoop 2B/3B BAL
87 Mason Williams CF NYY
88 Matt Davidson 3B CWS
89 Matt Barnes RHP BOS
90 Christian Bethancourt C ATL
91 Kolten Wong 2B STL
92 Brandon Nimmo OF NYM
93 Justin Nicolino LHP MIA
94 Hunter Renfroe OF SD
95 Nick Ciuffo C TB
96 Chris Anderson RHP LAD
97 Josh Bell OF PIT
98 Tim Anderson SS CWS
99 Jose Peraza SS ATL
100 Rob Kaminsky LHP STL
Natural Immunity Croc
Keith Laws list.
The 3 Braves on the list are really young. Sims could be a top 20 prospects by the end of next year and Peraza could be in the top 50.
I think the farm is severely underrated and we will see a huge boost.
The fact that its not completely barren after all the recent promotions is amazing.
Natural Immunity Croc
BA seems to like Cabrera more than the other ranking outfits, and I wouldn't be surprised to seem him crack their Top 100.
There are several others who have a shot next year: Caratini, Hursh, Reyes. Also Graham could return to the Top 100 ranks with a strong healthy season.
Plus we'll have 2 draft picks within the top 35.
It isn't surprising to me we've seen this downtick in top prospects in the Braves system. It mainly reflects all the talent we've graduated in recent years, especially all the guys who essentially bypassed AAA. If you take into account the talent under age 25 produced by our system, which I think is the correct multi-year way of looking at any farm system, it has to be considered one of the top 3 in the game.
90Christian Bethancourt, C
AGE: 21DOB: 9/2/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 215
AVG: .277OBP: .305OPS: .741HR: 12SB: 11
lastname
Bethancourt repeated Double-A after an inexcusably bad season at the plate there in 2012 but seemed to make enough minor adjustments at the plate to at least get to his power more often and project as an everyday catcher in the majors.
His calling card is his defense -- perhaps the best in the minors right now -- which is good enough to challenge Yadier Molina's for the best in MLB when the time comes. He's a plus-plus receiver with an 80-grade arm that is strong, quick and accurate. At the plate, Bethancourt has plus power, but he's a relentless hacker, with just 78 walks in 1,824 career plate appearances (4.2 percent, if you didn't want to bust out Excel for that), and that lack of patience has held back his ability to get pitches he can drive.
If he gets a full season in the majors in 2015, he'll probably post an OBP of less than .300 but with 10-15 homers and two wins worth of defensive value. And if he ever figures out how to take a couple of pitches, there's more power in there -- enough to make him a fringe All-Star.
Natural Immunity Croc
99Jose Peraza, SS
AGE: 19DOB: 4/30/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-0WT: 165
AVG: .288OBP: .341OPS: .712HR: 1SB: 64
lastname
Peraza is an above-average defensive shortstop and a 70-grade runner who played well as a 19-year-old in the South Atlantic League in 2013 but will have to show he can hit for enough power to keep up that performance into the big leagues.
He has a very short, direct swing with almost no load and very little follow-through and has posted very high contact rates across his three seasons in pro ball but virtually no power -- a concern because, by the time a player like this reaches Double-A, pitchers will start to try to pound him inside with velocity, and he needs to find enough strength to fight that stuff off.
Peraza is slight, but not weak, and might end up with 10-homer power if he can relax his swing's finish and get more loft in it. In the field, Peraza has very quick feet and good actions for a shortstop; he projects as a 65 or better defender at second, where he might end up because of Andrelton Simmons' presence at shortstop and where Peraza would be a potential All-Star.
Top level: Low Class A (Rome) | 2013 rank: Unranked
Natural Immunity Croc
40Lucas Sims, RHP
AGE: 19DOB: 5/10/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 195
W-L: 12-4ERA: 2.62IP: 116.2SO: 134BB: 46
lastname
Sims came on right from the start of 2013, his first full year in pro ball after Atlanta took him with the 21st overall pick in the 2012 draft.
Still just 19 years old, Sims works in the low-to-mid 90s, touching 96 frequently, with a power breaking ball that's already plus -- showing good depth and 11-to-5 break -- while his hard changeup improved as well this year with good fading action and adequate arm speed. He's put on 10-15 pounds since high school, helping him throw a little harder and maintain his velocity better into games. It's not an ideal delivery, as he pronates his elbow a little late and tends to fly open, but his arm is also very loose and once he gets it turned over it's extremely quick.
Sims still has a little room to fill out and add more velocity or just increase his potential workloads, and if the effort required to speed that arm up doesn't affect him -- or if Atlanta gets him to generate more torque from his legs -- he's a potential No. 2 starter for the Braves.
Natural Immunity Croc
So I think this is encouraging news. To have 3 guys in a top 100 list is strong. When you consider how many teams are in the league the average should be 3-4. Every team has the same but there are a lot of interesting young players that could break out into that top 100 next year along with the two picks early in this years draft.
Natural Immunity Croc
The Braves won 96 games last year with a $90M payroll because the farm system had an amazing 2-3 year streak of having almost all the prospects panning out and becoming impact MLB players. That RARELY happens for any organization. We have seen countless instances over the years of organizations with excellent talent in the minors not see much success in later years because that talent didn't pan out like the Braves' talent did. It takes extreme homerism to expect anything like that type of success to happen again in the next decade, much less happen again in the next 2-3 years.
These core guys are going to get expensive, and they are going to leave because the Braves have no money. Nobody can reasonably expect to replace the current core with young cheap impact players again immediately, no matter how much some of you like to dream.
The Braves realistically have a 2 year window to win before a pretty thorough rebuild, so Wren should have at least fixed the glaring hole at 2B to improve those chances as much as he could. The resources were there, decent options were present, and fixing 2B this year wouldn't have made the inevitable rebuild any more painful. That's all I'm saying.
It could have made it more painful though if the players traded ended up being competent major leaugers.
Natural Immunity Croc
We still have all of those young guys that have come up recently, and a majority of them are improving.
You say we've had great success, then say we need to go outside the organization to fix 2B. So do you consider the success we've had with young players to be mostly luck, or is the org. good at drafting and developing young guys?
Mike Minor was considered a reach where we took him. Look at his success compared to other 1st round pitchers.
Lucas Sims wasn't a highly-touted pick, could easily be a top-20 prospect by year end.
That's just two guys.
La Stella at least needs a shot at the ML level before we go get someone else long-term. We've had success developing players, let's see if it continues with a guy like La Stella. It would be worth it long-term if he works out.
I still think our farm system is exactly where it's been ranked, in the 20-30 range. You really have to look at the teams top 10 lists and use those comparatively, and also judge on the type of impact the guys can have. We have the potential to move up a lot this year if our guys do well, but where is farm is at is to be expected based on how many guys we've graduated and have performing at a high level.
In short, the Braves got lucky. Every team drafts lottery tickets and hopes they pan out. Right now the Cubs and Twins have the best farm systems in the game, and I bet only one of those organizations end up getting back to the playoffs with their current young core.
It's not all just luck. Future games are won with rounds 2-20something as much as they are with 1st round picks, or top 5 picks. The Braves have done well in bringing in guys who were not highly-touted but can play. Did they get lucky with Simmons, Freddie, Kimbrel, Venters, Medlen, Teheran, McCann, Beachy, etc etc etc? Or was a lot of it good scouting and development? You don't get to just dismiss that. They are legitimately good ad it.
In what world was Lucas Sims not considered a highly touted pick.
I wouldn't really call him "highly-touted." He's pitched extremely well since being drafted and has certainly elevated his original expectations. Heyward was far more highly thought of at the time of draft, Sims was considered a bit of a reach by most publications and draft rankings, and he looks as good as a lot of players taken before him. Sims is making himself look like a stud.
Not many players taken at the tail end of the first round are can't miss highly touted guys.
Natural Immunity Croc
The question of how good a team is at drafting, signing and developing new players is pretty complicated. You can't really cite one player or one draft to make much of a point. You have to take into account the team's draft position. It is obviously much easier to build up a farm system if you have very high picks over a four or five year period. It is much harder to have a productive system without the benefit of those high picks. I'd say in the past six or seven years, the Braves and Cardinals farm systems stand out as being particularly productive without a run of very high picks. At the moment, the Red Sox have a highly rated farm system without the benefit of a string of high picks. It remains to be seen, however, if their current group of top prospects pan out.
Last edited by nsacpi; 01-29-2014 at 06:26 PM.
With these 3 that made the list and guys like Cabrera, Reyes and Hursh knocking on the door of making the Top 100 list with a good season the system is not in that bad. Also with 2 1st rd picks this season and Luis Barrios a highly touted IFA pick up last season our system could dramatically improve next season.
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