Frank Wren's Winter Meeting Exit Interview On XM

[skillet]

I wanted to look at the stats of Samardzija and compare him to our top four starters. Let's look at the last two years for him, since they are the only two where he has been a starter.

Jeff Samardzija: ERA - 4.10, WHIP - 1.29, K/9 - 9.13, K/BB - 2.94
Kris Medlen: ERA - 2.95, WHIP - 1.15, K/9 - 7.62, K/BB - 3.59
Mike Minor: ERA - 3.90, WHIP - 1.22, K/9 - 7.91, K/BB - 3.12
Brandon Beachy: ERA - 3.23, WHIP - 1.13, K/9 - 9.25, K/BB - 3.20
Julio Teheran: ERA - 3.44, WHIP - 1.20, K/9 - 7.87, K/BB - 3.43

I would conclude that while Samardzija is certainly a good pitcher, the stats would say he is no better than any of our four starters, and perhaps maybe a tick below them.

[nsacpi]

Steamer FIP projections for 2014:

Samardzija 3.51
Medlen 3.47
Minor 3.82
Teheran 3.98
Beachy 3.97
Wood 3.44
Hale 4.08
Maya 4.26
Correia 4.32

[tvsportscaster]

I wanted to look at the stats of Samardzija and compare him to our top four starters. Let's look at the last two years for him, since they are the only two where he has been a starter.

Jeff Samardzija: ERA - 4.10, WHIP - 1.29, K/9 - 9.13, K/BB - 2.94
Kris Medlen: ERA - 2.95, WHIP - 1.15, K/9 - 7.62, K/BB - 3.59
Mike Minor: ERA - 3.90, WHIP - 1.22, K/9 - 7.91, K/BB - 3.12
Brandon Beachy: ERA - 3.23, WHIP - 1.13, K/9 - 9.25, K/BB - 3.20
Julio Teheran: ERA - 3.44, WHIP - 1.20, K/9 - 7.87, K/BB - 3.43

I would conclude that while Samardzija is certainly a good pitcher, the stats would say he is no better than any of our four starters, and perhaps maybe a tick below them.

You have to take into account with Samardzija that he has been playing on an absolutely dreadful team. You put him with a winning team in a pretty pitching friendly ballpark and he's a 15-game winner, dude has nasty stuff.

[nsacpi]

We have five solid starters in Medlen, Minor, Teheran, Beachy and Wood.

The question is whether that is enough. Almost surely it is not. Teams rarely go through a whole season using just five starters. Typically, 7-9 starting pitchers make at least 10 starts for a major league team over the course of a 162 game season.

Are we ok with Hale, Gilmartin, Martin and Maya being our backups for the rotation. It is not a terrible situation. But it is not great either.

If we can pick up Samardzija at a fair price (and I've indicated in another thread what I thought that might be) lets do it. If not there is no great urgency. We can wait and see how the season unfolds. There are always positive and negative surprises. Injuries happens. Players turn into pumpkins. Young and not so young pitchers step up and turn in surprisingly good performances. There is something to be said for holding on to your trading chips and not cashing them in until a need actually arises. There is a downside risk as well of course as with any decision. When the need for more starting pitching reveals itself the price might be higher and there might be less of it available. That's why I would pick up Samardzija if it could be done at a fair and reasonable price.

[Hudson2]

Heyward would net us a ton and it's probably time to think about it. If he is asking for just to much money then put his name out there and see what team will offer the most. The Rangers and Mariners would give up a ton.

[emk418]

You have to take into account with Samardzija that he has been playing on an absolutely dreadful team. You put him with a winning team in a pretty pitching friendly ballpark and he's a 15-game winner, dude has nasty stuff.

Also durability. His first full season as a starter threw 180 IP and last year over 210. We currently have one starter who has ever thrown 200 IP

[Hudson2]

He pitches in Wrigley to.

[jsebe10]

The thing about Samardzija is that he could come to Atlanta and dominate. His stuff is outstanding. Pretty similar to AJ Burnett.

Agreed. I don't understand the complaints here. Kid throws absolute gas with a great off speed pitch. Not to include that EVERY time he pitched vs AtL he shoved it up our @ss. I'd look fwd to Rogers tuitilige.

[cajunrevenge]

If we make a trade with the Cubs I want Arodys Vizcaino back. If for no other reason than it would amuse me to trade Vizcaino to the Cubs then trading for him 2 years later without him ever throwing a pitch for the Cubs organization.

[zitothebrave]

I don't want Samardzija aside from not wanting to type out his name. He's not a massive improvement for our rotation in really any facet. With only 2 more years of team control he isn't a long term answer.

Unless we're giving up nothing of significance for him, then I wouldn't make a serious trade. Maybe offer them like Beachy and 2 non top 5 prospects for him.

[gcbraves]

I am not against getting Smarj, I am opposed to what I think we might have to give up in order to get him.

[Gary82]

Sale for Heyward makes some sense for us given the latest DOB report about an extension for our young studs looking doubtful. Could then take a chance on Matt Kemp.

Sale for Hewyard...man. Who hangs up?

[Carp]

If we were to trade Heyward, then why not trade him in a 3 team trade where we get Price and another team (say the Tigers or Rangers) get Heyward, and the Rays get top MLB ready prospects from both teams (obviously more/better Prospects from the other team).

[CyYoung31]

I'm supposed to run in terror at the sight of a Washington team that finished 10 games behind us and added McLouth, Fister and Blevins? I mean, don't get me wrong, Fister's a solid pitcher, but nothing that's happened this off-season just screams, "Unstoppable juggernaut!"

Hell, you'd figure that last year's experience would provide at least some minor incentive to re-think those sort of proclamations.

Thank you.

[Dunit24]

Thank you.

The Washington Nationals are the new media darlings. They were supposed to win everything last year, and finished 10 games behind us. Now a lot of people are saying they are having the best offseason. They can do no wrong outside the baseball field.

[Julio3000]

I'm supposed to run in terror at the sight of a Washington team that finished 10 games behind us and added McLouth, Fister and Blevins? I mean, don't get me wrong, Fister's a solid pitcher, but nothing that's happened this off-season just screams, "Unstoppable juggernaut!"

Hell, you'd figure that last year's experience would provide at least some minor incentive to re-think those sort of proclamations.

Um, not to nitpick or anything, but . . .

[Knucksie]

The Washington Nationals are the new media darlings. They were supposed to win everything last year, and finished 10 games behind us. Now a lot of people are saying they are having the best offseason. They can do no wrong outside the baseball field.

It's wound-licking, because they all picked them to win the division for '13 with Phillies second.

[wheresmykayak]

I personally think it's ludicrous to be picking division winners in December. But then, maybe that's why I'm not paid to flap my gums on TV.

[Heyward]

As things stand now, i would agree.

Washington hasnt really lost anyone and added a pretty good P in Fister, a good 4th OF'er in McLouth who could start to provide depth, and Blevins is a good lefty out of the pen.

But the offseason isnt over.

[nsacpi]

As things stand now, i would agree.

Washington hasnt really lost anyone and added a pretty good P in Fister, a good 4th OF'er in McLouth who could start to provide depth, and Blevins is a good lefty out of the pen.

But the offseason isnt over.

Effectively Fister replaces Haren. McLouth replaces Bernardino and others who served as backup outfielders last year. And Blevins replaces Krol.

I think they will have a better record in 2014. And our record will likely be slightly worse. I think we'll hold on to the division title, but it is going to be a tough battle.