The Coronavirus, not the beer

[nsacpi]

Pregnant women are effectively self isolated as is and won't be exposed to the same grind that all other New Yorkers who are using mass transit to get to work.

Maybe. Maybe not. My observation is that women get very restless in the late stages of pregnancy. But it could be they took more precautions given concerns about the virus.

[thethe]

Maybe. Maybe not. My observation is that women get very restless in the late stages of pregnancy. But it could be they took more precautions given concerns about the virus.

How many pregnant women do you see in the subway?

[nsacpi]

An extremely small amount.

Whats your point here?

I'm using it to support my contention of less than 10% infected outside NY. We have a long ways to go. Eventually 30-60% of the population will get infected. Even those who do not live in densely populated areas. Combine that with an R naught around 2 for those kinds of areas and there remains quite a bit of risk of additional surges in cases. There is a strong case to re-open cautiously with a program to test and trace in place.

For NY city I think it is about 25%. And the case for a test and trace program is also strong there given the higher R naught.

[thethe]

I'm using it to support my contention of less than 10% infected outside NY. We have a long ways to go. Eventually 30-60% of the population will get infected. Even those who do not live in densely populated areas. Combine that with an R naught around 2 for those kinds of areas and there is a strong case to re-open cautious with a program to test and trace in place.

For NY city I think it is about 25%.

I've agreed numerous times that small amounts of the population outside of large metro areas have the virus. But thats ok. If it didn't aggregate already it means that the everyday commuting patters limits the R naught. I've been saying for over a week that the virus has a R naught in a vacuum and different R naughts based on its environment.

We don't need all areas to get to 50%. Every area has a threshold where a theoretical 'herd immunity' exists.

[nsacpi]

How many pregnant women do you see in the subway?

Back when I rode it regularly, I saw many. And why do I know that. Because being the gentleman that I am, I would give up my seat to one if I noticed her.

[thethe]

Back when I rode it regularly, I saw many. And why do I know that. Because being the gentleman that I am, I would give up my seat to one if I noticed her.

Ah - Great confirmation bias at work but also an indication of the type of person you are. Well done and the way it should be.

[nsacpi]

In the name of science, I propose the following experiment: red states open, blue states stay closed another 3 or 4 weeks. Let's see what happens.

[Carp]

Ah - Great confirmation bias at work but also an indication of the type of person you are. Well done and the way it should be.

What evidence do you have that pregnant women don't use the subway? This seems rather irrelevant though since their family and doctors likely DO use the Subway, so they could just as easily get it from them. Or from the Uber driver. Or the elevator of their apartment.

[nsacpi]

What evidence do you have that pregnant women don't use the subway? This seems rather irrelevant though since their family and doctors likely DO use the Subway, so they could just as easily get it from them. Or from the Uber driver. Or the elevator of their apartment.

Yeah. Its not just subways. Elevators have been identified as a vector. Family members who commute. A lot of kids take the subway to school in New York.

[Carp]

In the name of science, I propose the following experiment: red states open, blue states stay closed another 3 or 4 weeks. Let's see what happens.

Living in a red state, I do not support such a contention. I love my 65+ year old parents and aunts and uncles, as well as my granny who turns 90 in January too much. I'd rather not see one or more of them die to something that could easily be prevented.

Hopefully a treatment drug, whether it be hydroxycloroquine or remdesivir or somethhing else, shows considerable evidence that it does in fact treat the virus.

[nsacpi]

Living in a red state, I do not support such a contention. I love my 65+ year old parents and aunts and uncles, as well as my granny who turns 90 in January too much. I'd rather not see one or more of them die to something that could easily be prevented.

Hopefully a treatment drug, whether it be hydroxycloroquine or remdesivir or somethhing else, shows considerable evidence that it does in fact treat the virus.

My proposal was a tongue-in-cheek one. Hopefully, everyone will be safe and responsible, in all states.

[Carp]

My proposal was a tongue-in-cheek one. Hopefully, everyone will be safe and responsible, in all states.

Oh I picked up on that. While it won't happen for obvious reasons, I do like the idea of people filling out a waiver to do whatever they want, with the understanding that they won't receive treatment should they contract the virus.

[nsacpi]

Oh I picked up on that. While it won't happen for obvious reasons, I do like the idea of people filling out a waiver to do whatever they want, with the understanding that they won't receive treatment should they contract the virus.

I'm sure all the not-so-rugged individualists out there who put "liberty" above considerations of public safety will be happy to sign. I hope their toting guns around in public makes them feel manly and keeps them safe.

[thethe]

What evidence do you have that pregnant women don't use the subway? This seems rather irrelevant though since their family and doctors likely DO use the Subway, so they could just as easily get it from them. Or from the Uber driver. Or the elevator of their apartment.

Pregnant women are isolated to a certain degree in normal conditions. They certainly would me more so now.

And my evidence? Why the hell would a pregnant woman want to be on a subway? Again, this doesn't mean all of them but a statsiticallyi large enough percentage to skew an analysis.

[Carp]

I'm sure all the not-so-rugged individualists out there who put "liberty" above considerations of public safety will be happy to sign. I hope their toting guns around in public makes them feel manly and keeps them safe.

Can they still claim stand your ground laws if they shoot a person coming towards them that they think has the virus?

[thethe]

Can they still claim stand your ground laws if they shoot a person coming towards them that they think has the virus?

For most people this would be the equivalent of killing a child coming at you. Is there a freak occurrence that you could trip and fall on a sharp knife the child was holding at the time? I guess....But there is no need to shoot.

[nsacpi]

Can they still claim stand your ground laws if they shoot a person coming towards them that they think has the virus?

If they look Wuhanese why not

[Metaphysicist]

And my evidence? Why the hell would a pregnant woman want to be on a subway?

It's obvious that NYC has a huge undercount of actual cases; no one disputes this. The current CFR is like 10%, depending on how you account the "probable" deaths. So even if there are 10 times the cases undiagnosed, the IFR is still 1%. Could be lower than that, could be higher. Will be glad to have actual data rather than thethe's hunches and deliberate misrepresentations.

[goldfly]

And you idiots have the audacity to use the word tyranny

[goldfly]

Have noticed it from someone else too