Shelby to AZ for E. Inciarte, A. Blair, and Dansby Swanson

[Carp]

Lamb hasn't shown that he's an above average hitter. 87 wRC+ for a 3B is terrible. Castillo is a tiny bit above average for a catcher, Tomas hasn't shown he's an above average hitter, 88 wRC+ for an offensive first player isn't good.

Now of course Lamb and Tomas could get better. It's hardly impossible and probably likely that they will get better. But it's not something you just say they're good.

And I woulnd't bet too hard on Peralta.

May be not above average at their respective positions, but overall they should be better than the average major league hitter. And for the purposes of lineup construction, I don't think their defensive position is all that relevant. Lamb is a .700-.750 OPS guy. Certainly not terrific when adjusting for parks, but not terrible either. Tomas was a rookie and held his own. I'd expect some improvement from him.

[thewupk]

Peralta was pretty fantastic last year. Tomas, Castillo, and Lamb are all above average hitters, even if they aren't world beaters. They also have Drury who could help out as well.

They don't have an amazing offense, but it still should be quite good.

They have a couple of positons projected to provide under 1 WAR and a few others in the 1 and a half range. Yes these are projections and anything can happen but to be projected out of the gate for upper 80's wins you have to be really really good on paper. And I don't think the DBacks are at that level. However they should compete in the West and have as good of a chance as anybody else to win the division.

[nsacpi]

Let me put the issue slightly differently.

Let's say team A projects at 83 wins and team B at 87. Both have a chance to make a trade to improve themselves by 2 wins at the cost of some pretty good prospects. Which team would you say should be willing to part with more value in terms of those prospects.

[Enscheff]

Let me put the issue slightly differently.

Let's say team A projects at 83 wins and team B at 87. Both have a chance to make a trade to improve themselves by 2 wins at the cost of some pretty good prospects. Which team would you say should be willing to part with more value in terms of those prospects.

It also depends on the teams in their division, their overall budget, and the amount of control left on their "core" players.

If you are in the NL Central and have to compete against the Cards and Cubs, it doesn't make much sense to add a couple wins at a huge cost.

If you ARE the Cubs and are already very good, it doesn't make much sense to overpay for someone like Inciarte since you already have a 95+ win team.

If you are the Dodgers and can essentially buy any young FA you want, either domestically or internationally, maybe it does make sense to overpay for a 2 win improvement to help you beat out the Giants and DBacks. Just sign an international FA and trade him for a new prospect whenever you want.

If you are the Blue Jays and only have 2-3 years of realistically good baseball left from Donaldson, Encarnacion and Bautista, maybe it makes sense to grab a 2 win upgrade to improve your chances in your current window.

So much more to consider than your place on the win curve.

[smootness]

You could make a pretty strong case that the D-Backs are actually worse right now after the trade than they were before it. Even if they're trying to compete, it was a bad deal. Blair will pitch in the majors this year and may pitch pretty well. So even for this year, it's Inciarte+Blair for Miller.

[gilesfan]

I lIke the D-Backs better than the Dodgers and Giants on paper. Much better hitting than the Giants. Pitching wise, I think they are on par with both teams. Better top 2 than the Dodgers.

Are you effin drunk?

The Giatns probably have better pitching, but not something worth even arguing.

THe D-Backs having a better offense than the Giants is comically bad though. You realize the Giants have good hitters at every spot except maybe left field?

[gilesfan]

Peralta was pretty fantastic last year. Tomas, Castillo, and Lamb are all above average hitters, even if they aren't world beaters. They also have Drury who could help out as well.

They don't have an amazing offense, but it still should be quite good.

Yes, Perlata had a pretty lucky year (.368 BABIP), but is a solid, above average hitter. How are Lamb (92 wRC+) and Tomas (88 wRC+) above average hitters?

[gilesfan]

May be not above average at their respective positions, but overall they should be better than the average major league hitter. And for the purposes of lineup construction, I don't think their defensive position is all that relevant. Lamb is a .700-.750 OPS guy. Certainly not terrific when adjusting for parks, but not terrible either. Tomas was a rookie and held his own. I'd expect some improvement from him.

You realize that Ari is a hitters park, right? A .700-.750 OPS in that park is not good.

[gilesfan]

The Giants are a very good team. At worst top 10, but quite possibly top 5. They really don't have much in terms of holes in lineup (Pagan?). They have a rotation with Bum, Cueto, Samardzija, Peavy, Cain, Heston; all guys that should have ERAs in the league average or better range. (obv much better for Bum and Cueto, maybe Shark)

They have a really solid pen with Castillo, Romo, and Strickland.

[nsacpi]

The Giants are a very good team. At worst top 10, but quite possibly top 5. They really don't have much in terms of holes in lineup (Pagan?). They have a rotation with Bum, Cueto, Samardzija, Peavy, Cain, Heston; all guys that should have ERAs in the league average or better range. (obv much better for Bum and Cueto, maybe Shark)

They have a really solid pen with Castillo, Romo, and Strickland.

Yup. Fangraphs projects the Dodgers 18 games better than the Diamondbacks and the Giants 10 games better. You can quibble some. But in terms of improving playoff odds it is hard to see what the Diamondbacks did to justify how much they gave up for the future.

[Braves1976]

You could make a pretty strong case that the D-Backs are actually worse right now after the trade than they were before it. Even if they're trying to compete, it was a bad deal. Blair will pitch in the majors this year and may pitch pretty well. So even for this year, it's Inciarte+Blair for Miller.

I like Miller a lot, but it was a bad trade by Arizona on paper... However, time will tell if it actually works out that way or somewhere in between.

[smootness]

I like Miller a lot, but it was a bad trade by Arizona on paper... However, time will tell if it actually works out that way or somewhere in between.

Any trade could obviously work out different than expected. But this is one of those trades where regardless of the way it ultimately works out, it's still a bad deal for Arizona because they didn't have to give up that much to get Miller. It's kind of like the NFL draft - if you reach big time for a guy in the 2nd round who had a 7th round grade and he becomes a stud, you look like you made a really good pick...but even then, you still could have gotten the guy in the 5th or 6th round, so it's still a bad pick.

[praeceps93]

Any trade could obviously work out different than expected. But this is one of those trades where regardless of the way it ultimately works out, it's still a bad deal for Arizona because they didn't have to give up that much to get Miller. It's kind of like the NFL draft - if you reach big time for a guy in the 2nd round who had a 7th round grade and he becomes a stud, you look like you made a really good pick...but even then, you still could have gotten the guy in the 5th or 6th round, so it's still a bad pick.

Yeah, there is something to be said for the results of the trade, but the process of the trade can't just be ignored (which is what Dbacks fans are essentially doing). The fact of the matter is the Dbacks could've gotten someone better for that package. They massively overpaid, as much as I like Shelby. He could turn out to be a Cy Young candidate, and that would be great for them and I hope it happens, but that doesn't matter because when he was acquired that was by no means a reasonable result to expect.

[Braves1976]

Any trade could obviously work out different than expected. But this is one of those trades where regardless of the way it ultimately works out, it's still a bad deal for Arizona because they didn't have to give up that much to get Miller. It's kind of like the NFL draft - if you reach big time for a guy in the 2nd round who had a 7th round grade and he becomes a stud, you look like you made a really good pick...but even then, you still could have gotten the guy in the 5th or 6th round, so it's still a bad pick.

I wasn't covering the previous trade discussions that Arizona said no to in that statement. I agree that it was a bad move to play their cards as they did. They were so bent on keeping AJ Pollack out any deal for Miller they ended up trading even more to do so, IMO. But keep in mind Arizona is going for it this year, so while it seems remote to us--if they do go far and if Miller is key in them doing so. Then from their perspective that could be a solid win--esp. if they win the World Series. I am not saying any of this is likely. I am just saying I understand that argument and have no issue calling such a win for them if it works out that way (and a win for one team doesn't preclude an even bigger win for the other team involved). But either way they handled the trade discussions poorly plus it's still a bad trade on paper and probably the best trade on paper made by the Braves in years.

[cajunrevenge]

I dont think the trade is as bad for Arizona as everyone is saying and none of you know what they could have gotten or that they could have got Miller for less. If you think giving up Pollack would have been less then you dont understand why Arizona made the trade in the first place. Theres so much variable in this trade. Is Inciarte the 2014 version, 2015 version, or is he just getting better with experience? Miller could be anything from a Cy Young winner to a 5th starter. Blair is more than likely a back end starter with a chance to be a mid rotation starter. Swanson is more of a high floor prospect with the upside of a a fringe all star. I predict Ender catches Melvin disease, Miller posts a 4.5 ERA and finds himself in trade rumors again next offseason, Blair ends up a swingman out of the pen in the long run and Swanson becomes an above average SS.

[Braves1976]

I dont think the trade is as bad for Arizona as everyone is saying and none of you know what they could have gotten or that they could have got Miller for less. If you think giving up Pollack would have been less then you dont understand why Arizona made the trade in the first place. Theres so much variable in this trade. Is Inciarte the 2014 version, 2015 version, or is he just getting better with experience? Miller could be anything from a Cy Young winner to a 5th starter. Blair is more than likely a back end starter with a chance to be a mid rotation starter. Swanson is more of a high floor prospect with the upside of a a fringe all star. I predict Ender catches Melvin disease, Miller posts a 4.5 ERA and finds himself in trade rumors again next offseason, Blair ends up a swingman out of the pen in the long run and Swanson becomes an above average SS.

I don't think anyone is arguing that Pollock would've been less from Arizona's win-now perspective. IOW, we are not acting as if Ender Inciarte is better than Pollock. It makes sense to want Pollock and Miller over Inciarte and Blair when you're going for it. But in terms of value getting Swanson, Inciarte and Blair for Miller and a reliever is A LOT better than the initial offer the D'Backs reportedly turned down (Miller straight up for Pollock), etc.

[GovClintonTyree]

I just gotta know- are you guys honestly projecting the DBacks to be a sub-.500 team? That appears to be what I'm reading, between the ever-accurate WAR projections, the expectation of zero improvement from their young hitters, and the "Giants/Dodgers are 10-18 games better" talk.

I thought we ****ed them on the trade, but that's a pretty good club. One or both of Delarosa and Bradley could break out, then they're very strong. Only place I don't like their club is catcher.

[mqt]

I just gotta know- are you guys honestly projecting the DBacks to be a sub-.500 team? That appears to be what I'm reading, between the ever-accurate WAR projections, the expectation of zero improvement from their young hitters, and the "Giants/Dodgers are 10-18 games better" talk.

I thought we ****ed them on the trade, but that's a pretty good club. One or both of Delarosa and Bradley could break out, then they're very strong. Only place I don't like their club is catcher.

I think they'll be pretty good but there's a lot of risk there.

Issues I see in their lineup:

Catcher: Castillo isn't really bad, and would be a pretty solid worst every day player. He's just not going to be a real plus value guy for them.

2B: Jean Segura is atrocious. I'm actually pulling for him this year given his personal tragedy he's been fighting through, but I don't see him actually being valuable in any way.

SS: They're going to have to hope like hell that Ahmed is Andrelton-lite, because the dude can't hit.

RF: Tomas was so bad last year it was ridiculous. They're going to have to hope he turns it around quickly.

LF: Yes, Peralta isn't actually a hole, but there's some risk in his game that could screw things up for them.

[praeceps93]

I think they'll be pretty good but there's a lot of risk there.

Issues I see in their lineup:

Catcher: Castillo isn't really bad, and would be a pretty solid worst every day player. He's just not going to be a real plus value guy for them.

2B: Jean Segura is atrocious. I'm actually pulling for him this year given his personal tragedy he's been fighting through, but I don't see him actually being valuable in any way.

SS: They're going to have to hope like hell that Ahmed is Andrelton-lite, because the dude can't hit.

RF: Tomas was so bad last year it was ridiculous. They're going to have to hope he turns it around quickly.

LF: Yes, Peralta isn't actually a hole, but there's some risk in his game that could screw things up for them.

In addition to this, you have 3rd base and the bullpen. Lamb at third will probably be a solid regular, and that's fine on a roster, but it's not enough when they have the holes already described plus the bullpen, which will also probably be average at best. Their rotation is above average and they've got superstars at 1B and CF, but that's just not enough to beat out the powerhouses in San Fransisco and Los Angeles this year. That leaves the Wild Card, where they'll be fighting against the loser of the Nationals/Mets battle, and probably against 2 of the Cubs, Cards, and Pirates. I'm not saying they're going to be bad, but I am saying they probably won't be good enough to have a playoff year this year. I hope they do; I like the Dbacks and I like a lot of their players. I just wouldn't be surprised at all if they don't make it in.

[GovClintonTyree]

In addition to this, you have 3rd base and the bullpen. Lamb at third will probably be a solid regular, and that's fine on a roster, but it's not enough when they have the holes already described plus the bullpen, which will also probably be average at best. Their rotation is above average and they've got superstars at 1B and CF, but that's just not enough to beat out the powerhouses in San Fransisco and Los Angeles this year. That leaves the Wild Card, where they'll be fighting against the loser of the Nationals/Mets battle, and probably against 2 of the Cubs, Cards, and Pirates. I'm not saying they're going to be bad, but I am saying they probably won't be good enough to have a playoff year this year. I hope they do; I like the Dbacks and I like a lot of their players. I just wouldn't be surprised at all if they don't make it in.

So I'm looking at LA. They, of course, don't have Greinke behind Kershaw anymore. They have Kazmir. And "I throw 88, but from the left side" Wood. Anderson. Recovering Ryu. Newbie Maeda. 72 year old Chase Utley and his patella at second. Crawford, Pederson and Puig in the OF. A bunch of crap in a bullpen that historically underperforms.

Not saying they suck, exactly, but there are cracks in the mortar there, too.

At SF, same thing. 3-4-5 are Samardzija, 38 year old Peavy and - is he done? - Cain. The bullpen is unimpressive, Casilla as closer. OF starts Blanco and Pagan.

Are those clubs really light years ahead of the D-Backs? I sure don't think so.