Folty

[striker42]

Any discussions the Braves have with the Red Sox should start with Devers and I'd still want another prospect.

I think I'd prefer Benintendi over Devers at this point. I think Benintendi is more advanced at this point and might be ready to help us as early as the start of next season.

[Tapate50]

Benintendi moved up to AA.

Would be right on schedule in ATL, but I'd think thats a pipe dream. They do have a loaded OF though.

[Julio3000]

Sox are higher on Benintendi right now, and he's definitely more advanced and probably pretty close to contributing. He wrecked every level last year and started off the same this year, if without the HR power. Still, he SHOULD be wrecking A-ball pitchers, kinda like Swanson did. A lot to like.

I wouldn't discount Devers, though, as a lot of folks seem to have done since Benintendi came on the scene. He's struggling in A+ right now, but he's 19. I saw him a lot last year in the SAL, where he was 18 and hitting all-field bombs in games. He's both more risky and further away than Benintendi, but hardly a guy you'd turn your nose up at acquiring.

[striker42]

Benintendi moved up to AA.

Would be right on schedule in ATL, but I'd think thats a pipe dream. They do have a loaded OF though.

Gotta aim high. It's those kind of guys that we need so we need to find ways to make it happen. Maybe it's not Benintendi. Maybe we can add in a pitching prospect and get them to pull the trigger.

We're at the point where we have to get some bats that will be ready relatively quickly.

[yeezus]

Joey Gallo is an interesting one. He could be the next Adam Dunn or he could be the next Russel Branyan. Hard to tell at this point. He certainly would bring thunder to the lineup.

I doubt the Rangers trade him. He's a 3B right now and might stick there for a couple years but he's probably ultimately destined for either first or the outfield where he's not as blocked. Don't see them dealing Gallo for Teheran.

True, and if it came down to keeping JT or trading him for Gallo, I keep JT pretty easily.

[mqt]

Sox are higher on Benintendi right now, and he's definitely more advanced and probably pretty close to contributing. He wrecked every level last year and started off the same this year, if without the HR power. Still, he SHOULD be wrecking A-ball pitchers, kinda like Swanson did. A lot to like.

I wouldn't discount Devers, though, as a lot of folks seem to have done since Benintendi came on the scene. He's struggling in A+ right now, but he's 19. I saw him a lot last year in the SAL, where he was 18 and hitting all-field bombs in games. He's both more risky and further away than Benintendi, but hardly a guy you'd turn your nose up at acquiring.

I also think Devers is the type of prospect the Red Sox would be more likely to trade. I'd be thrilled to land Devers in a Julio trade.

[Enscheff]

JT is signed through 2020 at a very team friendly rate for a 2-3 starter, and he will almost certainly be a part of the next good Braves team even he is is just a MOR guy by then. There is no reason to trade him unless the return is another Swanson-level prospect. So if no other team thinks he is worth a top-25 prospect the Braves should keep him to anchor the pitching staff or the next 2-3 years. Then after the 2018 season start to look into dealing him for the best package available when he has 1-2 years of control remaining.

Wisler is already controlled through his 20s, so there is zero reason to extend him. He will be a MOR guy that needs to be traded away after the 2019 season when he has 1-2 years of control remaining.

The Braves need to be cycling through these pitchers and flipping them for assets, not committing big long term money to them. Decent veteran MOR starters can be had every single offseason on 2-3 year deals if needed, so there is no reason to take the risk of signing one for any longer than required.

[rawwr]

JT is signed through 2020 at a very team friendly rate for a 2-3 starter, and he will almost certainly be a part of the next good Braves team even he is is just a MOR guy by then. There is no reason to trade him unless the return is another Swanson-level prospect. So if no other team thinks he is worth a top-25 prospect the Braves should keep him to anchor the pitching staff or the next 2-3 years. Then after the 2018 season start to look into dealing him for the best package available when he has 1-2 years of control remaining.

Wisler is already controlled through his 20s, so there is zero reason to extend him. He will be a MOR guy that needs to be traded away after the 2019 season when he has 1-2 years of control remaining.

The Braves need to be cycling through these pitchers and flipping them for assets, not committing big long term money to them. Decent veteran MOR starters can be had every single offseason on 2-3 year deals if needed, so there is no reason to take the risk of signing one for any longer than required.

I feel like a lot of people here underestimate the value of Teheran's contract. We're in a world where it takes $22 million/year to sign Jordan Zimmerman, and Teheran is signed through 2020 with an AAV of ~$8 million in the remaining years. Assuming 2015 was just an aberration (and it looks like it was), his contract is a very valuable asset for whatever team he's on, including the Braves. We should absolutely expect a major haul if we trade him away, and be happy to hang onto him if we're not offered one.

As far as signing Wisler and others long-term, I think the wisdom of doing so will depend a lot on how competitive the team is and whether or not Liberty has increased the budget accordingly as some people have suggested. If we're looking competitive and we're back to being middle of the pack in terms of budget, it might make sense to lock up someone proven like Wisler and trade the unproven prospects instead.

[nsacpi]

My estimate is that the expected surplus value of Teheran's contract is in the 6-7 WAR range, not including anything from the rest of 2016. That's a lot of value. But if some team offered me about 10 WAR worth of expected surplus value, I'd take it.

[Enscheff]

My estimate is that the expected surplus value of Teheran's contract is in the 6-7 WAR range, not including anything from the rest of 2016. That's a lot of value. But if some team offered me about 10 WAR worth of expected surplus value, I'd take it.

10 WAR? A top 25ish hitter is "worth" about $40M-$50M in surplus value, and a top 25ish pitcher is "worth" $25M-$40M. You wouldn't trade JT unless a team offered 2 top 25 guys? I think the Braves are past the point where quantity of prospects in a trade is appealing, so they need to be looking for quality.

So what would be an acceptable package from a team like the BoSox? Two of Moncada (top 5), Devers (top 15), Benentendi (top 25), and Espinoza (top 35)?

I think that's a steep price, but it is about in line with being 2/3 of the package Miller got, which is what it would take for me to make the trade if I were the GM.

[bravesfanMatt]

10 WAR? A top 25ish hitter is "worth" about $40M-$50M in surplus value, and a top 25ish pitcher is "worth" $25M-$40M. You wouldn't trade JT unless a team offered 2 top 25 guys? I think the Braves are past the point where quantity of prospects in a trade is appealing, so they need to be looking for quality.

So what would be an acceptable package from a team like the BoSox? Two of Moncada (top 5), Devers (top 15), Benentendi (top 25), and Espinoza (top 35)?

I think that's a steep price, but it is about in line with being 2/3 of the package Miller got, which is what it would take for me to make the trade if I were the GM.

2 of any of those guys would be an exceptional return.. and I agree, his contract makes him more valuable than just his pitching ability alone. Even if he rates out to a #3 starter, he is controlled for about 10- 12 million a year less than what you would pay for a #3 starter.. So you can safely say JT has a surplus value of 40 to 50 million over his remain contract, fairly easily.. and probably more..

[clvclv]

If what he's showing now is sustainable then we have our future ace. His stuff is filthy but control has always been his downfall. Sims figured it out and Folty may have done the same. We really need Folty to have clicked bc it would make it a lot easier to trade other pitchers for offense.

Not sure I'd go so far as to say Sims "figured it out" - he's been pounded in a couple recent starts, so let's not get the cart before the horse folks.

That said, Folty's looked far better than he ever has in these last two starts (with A. J. behind the plate FWIW), and I'd absolutely love to eat crow for doubting him - IF this is the "real Folty" we very well could have our "Ace". The problem is it's been TWO starts - I'd hope the brass needs to see more than that before it decides to start unloading arms in an effort to compete in 2017. I'm much more sold on the fact that we're seeing the "real Wisler" than I am that this is the "real Folty" as of today.

Of course if he does this consistently from now up to the deadline, some kind of package around Inciarte/Jenkins or Gant/Sims/Fried/and another piece or two for Braun and Lucroy would suddenly make worlds of sense.

[bravesfanMatt]

Not sure I'd go so far as to say Sims "figured it out" - he's been pounded in a couple recent starts, so let's not get the cart before the horse folks.

That said, Folty's looked far better than he ever has in these last two starts (with A. J. behind the plate FWIW), and I'd absolutely love to eat crow for doubting him - IF this is the "real Folty" we very well could have our "Ace". The problem is it's been TWO starts - I'd hope the brass needs to see more than that before it decides to start unloading arms in an effort to compete in 2017. I'm much more sold on the fact that we're seeing the "real Wisler" than I am that this is the "real Folty" as of today.

Of course if he does this consistently from now up to the deadline, some kind of package around Inciarte/Jenkins or Gant/Sims/Fried/and another piece or two for Braun and Lucroy would suddenly make worlds of sense.

I am one of the biggest AJ haters around.. I hated that Fredi never gave CB a chance and AJ had this fluke season last year which only add fuel to the fire.. AJ will never be close to last year and I think he is a terrible defensive catcher.. That said, I won't bitch as much when he catches Folty..maybe..I don't know, he is such a horrible catcher.. I might not be able to hold it in..

[nsacpi]

10 WAR? A top 25ish hitter is "worth" about $40M-$50M in surplus value, and a top 25ish pitcher is "worth" $25M-$40M. You wouldn't trade JT unless a team offered 2 top 25 guys? I think the Braves are past the point where quantity of prospects in a trade is appealing, so they need to be looking for quality.

So what would be an acceptable package from a team like the BoSox? Two of Moncada (top 5), Devers (top 15), Benentendi (top 25), and Espinoza (top 35)?

I think that's a steep price, but it is about in line with being 2/3 of the package Miller got, which is what it would take for me to make the trade if I were the GM.

A player in the 15-25 range has a value of about 7 WAR. So that player for Teheran would be "fair." But I'm interested in extracting an overpay. So I would look for that type of player plus something worth an additional 3 WAR. Or a player in the top 5 if we are talking about a one for one exchange.

In terms of Red Sox prospects, I would take Moncada in a one-for-one. The other three you listed are actually fair value for Teheran, but as I explained I want to clearly win the trade.

[Enscheff]

A player in the 15-25 range has a value of about 7 WAR. So that player for Teheran would be "fair." But I'm interested in extracting an overpay. So I would look for that type of player plus something worth an additional 3 WAR. Or a player in the top 5 if we are talking about a one for one exchange.

In terms of Red Sox prospects, I would take Moncada in a one-for-one. The other three you listed are actually fair value for Teheran, but as I explained I want to clearly win the trade.

Agreed. A "win" is required to trade him now.

[clvclv]

A player in the 15-25 range has a value of about 7 WAR. So that player for Teheran would be "fair." But I'm interested in extracting an overpay. So I would look for that type of player plus something worth an additional 3 WAR. Or a player in the top 5 if we are talking about a one for one exchange.

In terms of Red Sox prospects, I would take Moncada in a one-for-one. The other three you listed are actually fair value for Teheran, but as I explained I want to clearly win the trade.

I'd also take Alex Bregman for him in a one-for-one deal (but that's just me). A Freeman/Swanson/Albies/Bregman infield would be extremely tough - both offensively and defensively.

[Enscheff]

I'd also take Alex Bregman for him in a one-for-one deal (but that's just me). A Freeman/Swanson/Albies/Bregman infield would be extremely tough - both offensively and defensively.

They could just rotate them all through the infield positions every game.

[50PoundHead]

I am one of the biggest AJ haters around.. I hated that Fredi never gave CB a chance and AJ had this fluke season last year which only add fuel to the fire.. AJ will never be close to last year and I think he is a terrible defensive catcher.. That said, I won't bitch as much when he catches Folty..maybe..I don't know, he is such a horrible catcher.. I might not be able to hold it in..

As is C(P)B.

[bravesfanMatt]

As is C(P)B.

very well could be... But I would have liked to give him more starts than we did in a lost season to find out.. and for the record, I was happy with the Flowers signing. I had hoped he would get more starts.. This love fest that Fredi has for AJP is disturbing. maybe Fredi is intimidated by him..

[clvclv]

I am one of the biggest AJ haters around.. I hated that Fredi never gave CB a chance and AJ had this fluke season last year which only add fuel to the fire.. AJ will never be close to last year and I think he is a terrible defensive catcher.. That said, I won't bitch as much when he catches Folty..maybe..I don't know, he is such a horrible catcher.. I might not be able to hold it in..

I think you're kinda missing my point. If you go back as far as more or less the beginning of this recent run of really good starts we've gotten, A. J. was behind the plate for as many (or more) of them as Flowers...

5/3 - Wisler vs. NYM - 8 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER
5/8 - Folty vs. ARI - 7 IP, 5 hits, 2 ER
5/11 - Perez vs. PHI - 8 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER
5/14 - Folty vs. KC - 8 IP, 7 hits, 0 ER

Kinda feel like it's much more about the Pitchers beginning to turn the corner and understand things better much more than having anything to do with who's behind the plate.