Predict the Rotation

[GovClintonTyree]

I do not "want" Shields in the rotation. This is not a prediction I made because I want to run out and buy a Braves jersey with Shields on the back of it. I am taking in all the facts as we know them, which are:

1. The Braves are looking for "stability" in the rotation.
2. The Braves will not trade from the future for a "quick fix".
3. The Braves will not sign anyone with a QO attached.
4. The FA market is barren of reliable pitchers.
5. The Braves have already taken on a salary dump "name" in Matt Kemp.
6. The Braves MUST appear to be building a contender this offseason.

And cross referencing them with facts about Shields:

1. The ChiSox owe him $24M over the next 2 years.
2. He is probably (practically) free to acquire.
3. He is about the closest thing to a lock for 30+ starts and 200+ innings that exists in modern day MLB.
4. He can be sold to the fans as a "name" that has won before and will rebound with the Braves.
5. He has a non-zero chance of once again becoming a 1-2 WAR guy and "worth" $12M per season.

There is no FA pitcher without a QO attached that can offer the stability of being relied upon for 200+ innings next year, especially not for a contract in the 2/24 range. In fact, I would argue there aren't any FA pitchers that can be relied upon to pitch another 200 innings in a starting rotation over the course of their next contract, period.

I do think the Braves will make a FA acquisition, and I think that guy will be De La Rosa. I do not think they are going to beat the market for 2 SPs that are actually good enough to slot into the rotation of a team that must appear to be a contender. Expecting them to do outbid the rest of the league for 2 such FA pitchers is being pretty naive about the kinds of FA expenditures the Braves typically make.

If the Braves trade for Shields he will not be good, just like Kemp is not and will not be good. However, that's the kind of move I expect them to make to fill 1 rotation spot.

Shields sucks.

[GovClintonTyree]

Sale
Archer
Teheran
Odorizzi
Smyly

[50PoundHead]

Is that Larry Kershaw?

No. Doug Kershaw.

[GovClintonTyree]

There is no draw really. The point is he represents a guy that can eat 200 innings and will essentially be acquired for free, just like Kemp was. Also like Kemp, there is a non-zero chance he can rebound to something closer to his past performance. Finally, like Kemp, he is a "name" player the FO can sell to the fans as someone looking to rededicate himself and get back on track in a Braves uniform after some struggles. "Big Game James is coming to the Braves to teach the young guys how to win!!", or something as equally silly as being a Braves fan and owning a Braves jacket since he was 12.

I don't predict Shields in the rotation because I want him on the Braves. I predict him in the rotation because Coppy has repeatedly stated they will not trade prospects for a "quick fix". Coppy also said they are looking to add stability to the rotation, and that's one thing Shields can provide. The Kemp trade represents precisely the type of trade I expect the Braves to make to acquire 1 of the 2 SPs they will add this offseason.

The other will be a non-QO guy that can be relied upon to eat ~150 innings, so I picked the LHer De La Rosa to fit the bill.

Folks expecting the Braves to trade the assets required to land a guy like Sale, Quintana, Archer, Verlander, Gray or even lesser guys like Odorizzi or Santana, simply haven't been paying attention to everything the team has done and said the last 3 years. They are not going to deplete the farm to push for contention, at least not yet. The ONLY asset with any real value the Braves could trade for an impact pitcher is one of Mallex or Inciarte since they are somewhat redundant players, so if the other team doesn't need a cost controlled CFer it's not reasonable to suggest a trade with them.

Why are you jacking around writing message board novellas for our enjoyment? You've got a nursery to paint, son. And a bunch of **** to buy. Your life as you know it is about to be over, and you're trying to persuade us that the Braves will pick up Jamie Shields? Get the **** out of here.

[Horsehide Harry]

Teheran
Zimmerman
Folty
Sanchez
Bud Norris
(Wisler, Blair in the wings)