Did We Give Up on Juan Francisco Too Soon?

[GovClintonTyree]

The myth that CJ is a contact hitter is kind of funny. The guy strikes out a lot too and has a lower walk rate than Juan. Sure he has a higher average but a BABIP over .400 will do that for you...

Show me a hit the guy has that he shouldn't have.

Didn't think so.

BABIP is a myth.

He just hits.

[The Chosen One]

I wouldn't say BABIP is a myth, I'd just say Johnson is a statistical anomaly. I like how he can go to all fields on any pitch whether it's high, low, inside or outside. He has really good bat control from what I've seen, and a nice long swing.

He may be having a career year and we're fortunate enough to witness it.

[ESP47]

How's that working out?

Juan is a dumb player. Any sense at all and he'd have broadened his skillset, stayed in shape and learned some plate discipline. He'd have been an all-star. Instead he's a BP star (watched him hit a couple to the upper deck here in Seattle a week ago).

Couldn't you say that about every players faults? Like hey Schafer doesn't have much power...he should broaden that skillset. Or Andruw swings at too many low and away pitches...he should just quit being lazy and not do that anymore. Other than staying in shape, Juan probably doesn't have much control over the rest of that stuff. If he had the ability to bat over .300, I'm sure he'd choose to do it. If he had the ability to walk 100 times, I'm sure he'd do that too. It's not like these guys are just so hard headed that they refuse to walk or raise their batting averages. Maybe he just doesn't have good pitch recognition. Maybe his eyes don't see things the same way a guy like Chipper's did. Maybe his brain doesn't have the split second decision making that Miggy has. Some players just have it and it comes natural. Some have to work hard to get it. A guy like Eckstein probably worked harder than most players in the league, but he still couldn't hit worth a damn. Work ethic doesn't always translate to production. None of us have any idea what Juan is working on day to day. I just highly doubt that he's so hard headed that he thinks he's doing the right thing considering he's been a fringe player for years. He probably just doesn't have the ability to bat for average and walk much at the major league level.

[thewupk]

Show me a hit the guy has that he shouldn't have.

Didn't think so.

BABIP is a myth.

He just hits.

BABIP is not a myth. Some people have a poor understanding of it but it's definitely not a myth. Johnson currently has a 414 BABIP. I'm not sure most understand just how ridiculous that is. Since 1936 there have only been 4 seasons with a BABIP over .400. And the highest of those 4 is Rod Carew at 408. So Johnson is blowing that away this year. Even throwing in every year back to 1900 Johnson would rank #6 all time. People can have a high BABIP. It happens. But what Johnson is doing this year is unheard of. Johnson is a good hitter, and I will get into that in a bit, but it has it's limits.

You ask to show you some hits that he shouldn't have. Well for starters he has hit 129 ground balls this year and has a 287 batting average on those plays. Which is pretty phenomenal in and of itself. Major leaguers on average hit 229 on groundballs. Groundballs just don't wind up as hits that often which should be pretty obvious. And Johnson is not fast at all. So it's not like he's beating out a lot infield hits like Ichiro was doing in his prime. He only has 4 infield hits this year. So I would say he's getting fairly lucky on the amount of ground balls he hits that find holes and are just out of the reach of infielders.

Now that's not to say that Johnson is a poor hitter because he isn't. Yes he strikes out quite a bit but he hits a lot of line drives. And the best way to boost your overall BABIP and get hits in general is to hit a lot of line drives. His line drive % is 27.7 this year which is 4th highest in the league. So before we go any farther. Yes, Johnson should be expected to have a higher BABIP then most people since he hits a ton of line drives. But 414 is still too high for that. The 3 people hitting more line drives then him have BABIPs of 337, 380, and 380. The extra hits that Johnson seems to be getting are coming mostly from those grounders that are finding holes. And imo that's pure luck instead of skill.

Now before we end let's look at Johnson's career. Thus far he has a 24.8% LD rate which is excellent. And as one would expect his career BABIP is 363 which is slightly skewed due to what he's doing this year as it was in the 350's prior to the seasons start. Which is about what most people would expect from him. To have a high BABIP you generally have to hit a lot of line drives (like Votto) or be really fast to beat out those infield hits (like Ichiro) or be really good at both (like Trout). Johnson appears to be falling into the Votto category.

As a side note they began keeping up with LD% since 2002. And Johnson's 24.8 career mark is 9th best in that span. So he has a real talent for hitting line drives. We should expect his BABIP to still be really good going forward whether it's with the Braves or somewhere else. But anything north of 400 is just too unrealistic to expect and it will return to the mid 300s. Those grounders will eventually start being hit at people instead of a couple of steps out of their reach. But that's not to say we aren't enjoying what Chris is doing this year. But at some point it will stop whether that's in a week or next season.

BABIP is real. You just have to know what you are looking at.

[zitothebrave]

thewupk with fact bombs.

I'd like to add to his, according to bref, the current NL average for GB, LD and FB are .234/.669/.181 Johnson's stats in those same splits .287/.827/.273

Every single ball johnson is making contact with he's getting to drop in at a higher than average rate. The skepticism over Johnson has nothing to do with his abilities, I think most who are skeptical of him acknowledge they expect him to be a high BABIP guy because he hits a ton of LDs. But you don't hit that high. Johnson's hitting .208 on fly balls that aren't homers, the league average is .097. If that doesn't scream that he's getting lucky than what can. You cannot be telling me that Johnson walks up to the plate and says "I'm gonna hit a dying quail just beyond the reach of the 2B and RF" cause if he has that ability he's not a baseball player. He's a witch and he should be burned.

[gilesfan]

The .287 BA of flyballs is really telling to me. That seems to be unheard of.

No one is saying Johnson is the worst hitter in baseball. But, he's been lucky as hell this year. Unfortunately when the luck runs dry and he returns to normalcy, he's a .280 hitter with little on base skills and averagish power with bad defense.

Enjoy him now and hope he continues to run like God. Just don't be surprised when the luck evens out.

[Russ2dollas]

The .287 BA of flyballs is really telling to me. That seems to be unheard of.

No one is saying Johnson is the worst hitter in baseball. But, he's been lucky as hell this year. Unfortunately when the luck runs dry and he returns to normalcy, he's a .280 hitter with little on base skills and averagish power with bad defense.

Enjoy him now and hope he continues to run like God. Just don't be surprised when the luck evens out.

CJ's not the long term answer at 3B. But he's been a great stop gap. And he's not that expensive.

Fransico wasn't the long term answer either.

I still think Kimbrel is going to be too expensive for the Braves. And I think in the Kimbrel trade we look to get our 3B of the future, the long term answer.

Because the braves probably think they have their long term answer (5 years) at LF, CF (stuck), RF, SS, and 1B. They have to make a move to answer 2B, 3B, and maybe C. And they are likely going to need 2B and 3B to be under team control for the next 5 years to even consider being able to afford the rest of the team. Or just punt on 2B and 3B. Punting would be someone like Pastor at 2b and CJ until he's a FA.

[zitothebrave]

C well be fine at, Betancourt will at worst be a 2 WAR catcher because of his defense or Gattis will at worst be a 2 WAR C cause of his offense. Unfortunately we probably won't have close to Mac level production from either of them but it's not a big need. As far as 2B and 3B goes. La Stella or Pastor should plug one (can't have an All Star at every position) and for the other we can have stop gap types. Still praying Salcedo explodes but that seems extremely unlikely.

[jpx7]

He may be having a career year and we're fortunate enough to witness it.

This.

[50PoundHead]

CJ's not the long term answer at 3B. But he's been a great stop gap. And he's not that expensive.

Fransico wasn't the long term answer either.

I still think Kimbrel is going to be too expensive for the Braves. And I think in the Kimbrel trade we look to get our 3B of the future, the long term answer.

Because the braves probably think they have their long term answer (5 years) at LF, CF (stuck), RF, SS, and 1B. They have to make a move to answer 2B, 3B, and maybe C. And they are likely going to need 2B and 3B to be under team control for the next 5 years to even consider being able to afford the rest of the team. Or just punt on 2B and 3B. Punting would be someone like Pastor at 2b and CJ until he's a FA.

Hessman has not retired yet. There is still time!

Francisco didn't fit, but I've always wondered if there is more to the story because we surely didn't get much for him. He has big-time power potential and because of that he'll stick around for awhile because he's a LHH.

[GovClintonTyree]

BABIP is not a myth. Some people have a poor understanding of it but it's definitely not a myth. Johnson currently has a 414 BABIP. I'm not sure most understand just how ridiculous that is. Since 1936 there have only been 4 seasons with a BABIP over .400. And the highest of those 4 is Rod Carew at 408. So Johnson is blowing that away this year. Even throwing in every year back to 1900 Johnson would rank #6 all time. People can have a high BABIP. It happens. But what Johnson is doing this year is unheard of. Johnson is a good hitter, and I will get into that in a bit, but it has it's limits.

You ask to show you some hits that he shouldn't have. Well for starters he has hit 129 ground balls this year and has a 287 batting average on those plays. Which is pretty phenomenal in and of itself. Major leaguers on average hit 229 on groundballs. Groundballs just don't wind up as hits that often which should be pretty obvious. And Johnson is not fast at all. So it's not like he's beating out a lot infield hits like Ichiro was doing in his prime. He only has 4 infield hits this year. So I would say he's getting fairly lucky on the amount of ground balls he hits that find holes and are just out of the reach of infielders.

Now that's not to say that Johnson is a poor hitter because he isn't. Yes he strikes out quite a bit but he hits a lot of line drives. And the best way to boost your overall BABIP and get hits in general is to hit a lot of line drives. His line drive % is 27.7 this year which is 4th highest in the league. So before we go any farther. Yes, Johnson should be expected to have a higher BABIP then most people since he hits a ton of line drives. But 414 is still too high for that. The 3 people hitting more line drives then him have BABIPs of 337, 380, and 380. The extra hits that Johnson seems to be getting are coming mostly from those grounders that are finding holes. And imo that's pure luck instead of skill.

Now before we end let's look at Johnson's career. Thus far he has a 24.8% LD rate which is excellent. And as one would expect his career BABIP is 363 which is slightly skewed due to what he's doing this year as it was in the 350's prior to the seasons start. Which is about what most people would expect from him. To have a high BABIP you generally have to hit a lot of line drives (like Votto) or be really fast to beat out those infield hits (like Ichiro) or be really good at both (like Trout). Johnson appears to be falling into the Votto category.

As a side note they began keeping up with LD% since 2002. And Johnson's 24.8 career mark is 9th best in that span. So he has a real talent for hitting line drives. We should expect his BABIP to still be really good going forward whether it's with the Braves or somewhere else. But anything north of 400 is just too unrealistic to expect and it will return to the mid 300s. Those grounders will eventually start being hit at people instead of a couple of steps out of their reach. But that's not to say we aren't enjoying what Chris is doing this year. But at some point it will stop whether that's in a week or next season.

BABIP is real. You just have to know what you are looking at.

Respecifully disagree. Chris Johnson has mastered an approach (square balls up, flat through the zone, use the big part of the park) that results in him hitting less balls that are caught. I know he's hitting more line drives than anybody in baseball except maybe Cabrera and I don't even need to look at Fangraphs to know that.

You wouldn't have any problem saying, well, Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn and Rod Carew have high Babips because they have unique skills (hit 'em where they ain't). I think Johnson has a unique skillset. He can't call his shot like Carew could, but I saw enough ground balls with eyes from these three guys to know they could do something other guys can't.

So can Chris. He has mastered the art of the line drive. He still doesn't recognize pitches as well as some of those guys of yore, but when he recognizes (or guesses) right his swing is so flat through the zone. He hits most everything hard. And since his approach is to hit to what he calls "the big part of the ballpark", more of his batted balls fall for base hits. He's stopped hitting for intentional power; actually, he still has some nice pop, but that's not his goal. Line drives are.

It isn't luck. That theory and assertion drives me nuts. He won't hit .420 for his career on balls in play, but he'll be well, well above the norm. He is, quite simply, an excellent hitter who has refined his technique and is playing at the top of his game. And either your stat doesn't capture that or you're misinterpreting it.

I am aware my position is the debil on this board, where so many people appreciate advanced metrics. But consider what I am saying. There's something to it, even if I haven't laid it out quite correctly.

[GovClintonTyree]

Actually, I just re-read your post thewupk, and we're not too far off on our interpretations. I know he's having a great year and is probably not a .340 hitter and more than his share of hits is falling in, and that those things tend to even out.

Where I disagree, and it doesn't look like you disagree, is when people extrapolate the league average BABIP to cover everyone and dismiss a season like Chris is having as "luck". Bull****. The guy is raking. And by that, I mean hitting line drives over the course of a season about as well as anyone ever has.

Luck is the residue of hard work. He's worked hard on that approach and that swing. And our club (and his wallet) are well-rewarded for it.

[gilesfan]

Respecifully disagree. Chris Johnson has mastered an approach (square balls up, flat through the zone, use the big part of the park) that results in him hitting less balls that are caught. I know he's hitting more line drives than anybody in baseball except maybe Cabrera and I don't even need to look at Fangraphs to know that.

You wouldn't have any problem saying, well, Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn and Rod Carew have high Babips because they have unique skills (hit 'em where they ain't). I think Johnson has a unique skillset. He can't call his shot like Carew could, but I saw enough ground balls with eyes from these three guys to know they could do something other guys can't.

So can Chris. He has mastered the art of the line drive. He still doesn't recognize pitches as well as some of those guys of yore, but when he recognizes (or guesses) right his swing is so flat through the zone. He hits most everything hard. And since his approach is to hit to what he calls "the big part of the ballpark", more of his batted balls fall for base hits. He's stopped hitting for intentional power; actually, he still has some nice pop, but that's not his goal. Line drives are.

It isn't luck. That theory and assertion drives me nuts. He won't hit .420 for his career on balls in play, but he'll be well, well above the norm. He is, quite simply, an excellent hitter who has refined his technique and is playing at the top of his game. And either your stat doesn't capture that or you're misinterpreting it.

I am aware my position is the debil on this board, where so many people appreciate advanced metrics. But consider what I am saying. There's something to it, even if I haven't laid it out quite correctly.

Then how do you explain his batting average on ground balls and flyballs?

[AUTiger7222]

Wasn't he also horrible as a pinch hitter?

Yep

[thewupk]

Actually, I just re-read your post thewupk, and we're not too far off on our interpretations. I know he's having a great year and is probably not a .340 hitter and more than his share of hits is falling in, and that those things tend to even out.

Where I disagree, and it doesn't look like you disagree, is when people extrapolate the league average BABIP to cover everyone and dismiss a season like Chris is having as "luck". Bull****. The guy is raking. And by that, I mean hitting line drives over the course of a season about as well as anyone ever has.

Luck is the residue of hard work. He's worked hard on that approach and that swing. And our club (and his wallet) are well-rewarded for it.

You can be good and lucky at the same time. Johnson won't hitting near 300 on ground balls the rest of his career. And once that happens he will go back to around a 290-300 hitter.

[AUTiger7222]

You can be good and lucky at the same time. Johnson won't hitting near 300 on ground balls the rest of his career. And once that happens he will go back to around a 290-300 hitter.

So .290-.300 isn't good now?

[thewupk]

So .290-.300 isn't good now?

When did I say he wasnt a good hitter?

[GovClintonTyree]

You can be good and lucky at the same time. Johnson won't hitting near 300 on ground balls the rest of his career. And once that happens he will go back to around a 290-300 hitter.

No, he won't. Just because most do doesn't mean everybody does. I don't give a damn what the statistical regression says.

He's figured out something special. He won't likely hit .340, but neither will he snap back to .290.

I would bet that his average the next five years will be closer to .315 than it is to .290.

[thewupk]

No, he won't. Just because most do doesn't mean everybody does. I don't give a damn what the statistical regression says.

He's figured out something special. He won't likely hit .340, but neither will he snap back to .290.

I would bet that his average the next five years will be closer to .315 than it is to .290.

I would easily make any sort of bet with you in regards to his average next year.

[GovClintonTyree]

More of a rhetorical, but I would stand by it.