So Where Are The Fits?

[Carp]

Good analysis.

I think wRC+ is a better metric to use as a baseline here rather than WAR, since we are discussing two players that are obvious DH types (granted this ignores base running, but there isn't really a negligible difference between Beltran and Kemp in that department).

Beltran during 2016 pre-Texas trade had a 135 wRC+. Kemp has a 160 wRC+, though I expect this to be closer to Beltran's as the year moves along.

Still, I think Kemp has the better bat, so I would expect his trade value to be a little higher than Beltran. If the Braves kick in $16 million, that essentially represents the amount they took on when they made the HO trade (at least the last two years of the 3yr / 25 million). The 50 FV prospect represents the capital gains earned for Kemp's improvement with the Braves, which seems entirely fair.

It should also be pointed out that along with being a better hitter, Kemp is considerably younger than Beltran and comes with less of an injury risk.

Not that I think Kemp holds much value, but the Beltran trade is probably a good benchmark.

[Russ2dollas]

Insider article on ESPN says the Yanks need 1B help (Adams) and a starter (Garcia?) and a RP (JJ, Viz). Maybe that is a partner. Maybe we can fill multiple needs for a better piece.

Sox could maybe use some infield help that is cheap.....

Indians.....Tehran if he plays well at all........maybe garcia.

Cubs........SP and reliever.

[Preacher]

Insider article on ESPN says the Yanks need 1B help (Adams) and a starter (Garcia?) and a RP (JJ, Viz). Maybe that is a partner. Maybe we can fill multiple needs for a better piece.

Sox could maybe use some infield help that is cheap.....

Indians.....Tehran if he plays well at all........maybe garcia.

Cubs........SP and reliever.

I really don't think Adams is going to get traded, I believe Coppy wants to hold onto him for next year's bench and depth in case something happens to Freeman again; and honestly I get that. I'm also sure if someone comes in and gives us a really good offer, he'll be gone, but I don't expect that to happen.

[Enscheff]

Insider article on ESPN says the Yanks need 1B help (Adams) and a starter (Garcia?) and a RP (JJ, Viz). Maybe that is a partner. Maybe we can fill multiple needs for a better piece.

Sox could maybe use some infield help that is cheap.....

Indians.....Tehran if he plays well at all........maybe garcia.

Cubs........SP and reliever.

Add the Astros to the list of teams that need help at 1B.

[mfree80]

Add the Astros to the list of teams that need help at 1B.

I hear James Loney is available!

[TheBravos]

Don't forget Colon....many teams may have a hotdog eating contest coming up!!

[TheBravos]

If Julio once again turns it around....they have to trade him. He is getting in the "more money" part of his contract after this year.

[Russ2dollas]

I think it's a big mistake we are not shopping Flowers. That seems like a potential piece where most teams could use an upgrade and we might get a real guy.

[Preacher]

I think it's a big mistake we are not shopping Flowers. That seems like a potential piece where most teams could use an upgrade and we might get a real guy.

Totally agree, the guy is having a career season, is signed cheap for next year and could be a nice piece for a contender.

[Preacher]

If Julio once again turns it around....they have to trade him. He is getting in the "more money" part of his contract after this year.

I don't think you can trade Julio this year, even if he starts to turn it around... teams are going to be too gunshy with him. I think we missed our chance.

[TheBravos]

I think three pages of player valuation and trade speculation is amusing for a player who isn't going anywhere.

Particularly when the saber consensus is that he's worthless or close to it.

Serious question: of the players in the minors with the Braves right now, how many of them are capable of a .900 OPS for even a season at the ML level? Zero, or close to it.

The utter discounting of guys who have proven they can hit at the ML level in favor of prospects who have done jack **** at the MiLB level is an ongoing source of wonder to me.

It's like a reverse valuation thing on this board. For years, skills not measured or measured properly were overlooked or undervalued. Now we've got a guy who's been hitting the dog**** out of the ball since he got here nearly a season ago and people do their damnedest to diminish his value because their favored metrics say he's a poor defender.

I still think we're misvaluing defense. Corner outfield defense just isn't that important. Mark me: some day a metric system will make the same judgment and guys who play Bat will be valued for their bat, not negative valued for what they don't do.

Carry on.

^^

[TheBravos]

I would disagree with that assertion. I think most of them have their own thinking on how heavily to weigh defense. And I know Adam Dunn cost his team a lot of runs and don't want to return to a world where we ignore that. I would suggest a more nuanced stance.

My point is not that it's irrelevant, but that we're now overvaluing or misvaluing defense, where we used to undervalue it. Yes, I understand that a run saved is the same as a run produced. But there are a lot of assumptions made after the raw data is acquired and before the metric is produced that aren't necessarily settled.

Yup

[TheBravos]

See, I would like to keep Adam's....BUT there could be a really good return for him at the deadline. How smart would that be to gain more than we gave away for a player we won't really need while covering for Freddie? Playing in Suntrust and being able to play every day, Adam's value is probably as high as it will ever be.

[Russ2dollas]

See, I would like to keep Adam's....BUT there could be a really good return for him at the deadline. How smart would that be to gain more than we gave away for a player we won't really need while covering for Freddie? Playing in Suntrust and being able to play every day, Adam's value is probably as high as it will ever be.

I don't think we're getting a top 100 guy for Adams.

But I could see us getting a good player that might be a better fit long term. Maybe you could get a Dustin Peterson type guy (solid defender, good bat, unlikely to have the power to be plus at his position) if someone felt having a guy mash vs RH at 1B would maybe get them a ring.

I still don't think we'd trade Kemp. I don't think Coppy is the analytics guy I though. And I don't know if other teams would think Kemp would be willing to play 1B. But you could see that bat a fit. Maybe even Neck at 1B if we ate some money or dumped him for nothing. IF Houston, Yanks and Sox look to improve 1B we could have some options.

I wouldn't give Adams away. And I know our bench was historically bad to start the year. But I'm also not over valuing 1 year of a bench bat with no defense over a legit piece.

[TheBravos]

Adams is not a horrible defensive first baseman at all.

[thewupk]

You have to look and see what we gave up to get Adams. His value isn't going to significantly increase over the course of a month or two. Yepez didn't make the Braves top 32 according to fangraphs so isn't even a 40 FV player. Essentially a non prospect for all intents and purposes. He has much better value to the Braves as a bench piece for the next year and a half. Possibly a good candidate to extend for a couple of years if he would be willing to be a bench piece.

[Preacher]

You have to look and see what we gave up to get Adams. His value isn't going to significantly increase over the course of a month or two. Yepez didn't make the Braves top 32 according to fangraphs so isn't even a 40 FV player. Essentially a non prospect for all intents and purposes. He has much better value to the Braves as a bench piece for the next year and a half. Possibly a good candidate to extend for a couple of years if he would be willing to be a bench piece.

Logic doesn't always rule the day come the trade deadline, teams get antsy to add a piece and often overpay.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Braves wanted to move Adams if they were able to land a really intruiging piece, not a top-100 guy; but a guy with that type of potential -- maybe coming off injury or a down season. Its really not hard to go look back at previous deadline deals and say 'how did team A get that from Team B for a bench player/reliever'. It happens a lot.

[Russ2dollas]

Logic doesn't always rule the day come the trade deadline, teams get antsy to add a piece and often overpay.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Braves wanted to move Adams if they were able to land a really intruiging piece, not a top-100 guy; but a guy with that type of potential -- maybe coming off injury or a down season. Its really not hard to go look back at previous deadline deals and say 'how did team A get that from Team B for a bench player/reliever'. It happens a lot.

Agree. We've traded KJ twice. Aybar last year. Frenchy. Several years ago we tried to really overpay for a mid rotation starter rental but lucked out b/c the guy vetoed the trade.

I don't think people are going to give up potential superstars in AA or better for anyone we would be willing to move. But I agree we could get a massive overpay. Abyar for Scivodgdgdg (whatever the AA catcher's name) was a massive overpay. Even if that guy only does a good job of developing our starters in the minors he's better than Aybar last year.

[bravesfanMatt]

did I dream this or didn't we almost get Sanchez for Grilled Cheese before injury. That would have been on a half a years work..

[thewupk]

Logic doesn't always rule the day come the trade deadline, teams get antsy to add a piece and often overpay.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Braves wanted to move Adams if they were able to land a really intruiging piece, not a top-100 guy; but a guy with that type of potential -- maybe coming off injury or a down season. Its really not hard to go look back at previous deadline deals and say 'how did team A get that from Team B for a bench player/reliever'. It happens a lot.

Sure. If a team is offering that then I would jump on it.