Gun Violence

[57Brave]

yeah, people in Japan wear masks when they have a cold
so, I get your point, lets not be like them

[Jaw]

I found this reddit thread about a data map on the topic:
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeaut...s_by_us_state/


Lots of people in the comments point to a correlation between African American population and gun homicides. On freaking Reddit.


Someone also linked this, with the title "Murders In US Very Concentrated: 54% Of US Counties In 2014 Had Zero Murders, 2% Of Counties Have 51% Of The Murders"
https://crimeresearch.org/2017/04/nu...s-69-1-murder/



There's also this, which seems to indicate that rate of gun ownership is not a key factor:
https://www.businessinsider.com/gun-...y-state-2015-7

[Jaw]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race..._United_States




According to the FBI, African-Americans accounted for 55.9% of all homicide offenders in 2019, with whites 41.1%, and "Other"/Unknown 3.0% in cases where the race was known.[52] Among homicide victims in 2019 where the race was known, 54.7% were black or African-American, 42.3% were white, and 3.1% were of other races.[53][54] The per-capita offending rate for African-Americans was roughly six times higher than that of whites, and the victim rate is a similar figure.

...
While African Americans are highly overrepresented in murders and gun assaults, the disparity in arrests is small for the most common form of assault not involving any weapon or serious injury (non-aggravated assault). Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites are arrested for non-aggravated assault in a similar ratio to their share of the US population. Of the 9,468 murder arrests in the US in 2017, 53.5% were black and 20.8% Hispanic. Of the 822,671 arrests for non-aggravated assault, 31.4% were black and 18.4% Hispanic.[57]

According to the FBI Uniform Crime Reports, in 2008, black youths, who make up 16% of the youth population, accounted for 52% of juvenile violent crime arrests, including 58.5% of youth arrests for homicide and 67% for robbery. Black youths were overrepresented in all offense categories except DUI, liquor laws, and drunkenness. Racial disparities in arrest have consistently been far less among older population groups.[58]

[nsacpi]

The statistical relationship between guns and gun deaths has been extensively analyzed.

One example:

https://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/20/6/424

Abstract
Determining the relationship between gun ownership levels and firearm homicide rates is critical to inform public health policy. Previous research has shown that state-level gun ownership, as measured by a widely used proxy, is positively associated with firearm homicide rates. A newly developed proxy measure that incorporates the hunting license rate in addition to the proportion of firearm suicides correlates more highly with state-level gun ownership. To corroborate previous research, we used this new proxy to estimate the association of state-level gun ownership with total, firearm, and non-firearm homicides. Using state-specific data for the years 1981–2010, we modelled these rates as a function of gun ownership level, controlling for potential confounding factors. We used a negative binomial regression model and accounted for clustering of observations among states. We found that state-level gun ownership as measured by the new proxy, is significantly associated with firearm and total homicides but not with non-firearm homicides.

[nsacpi]

Of course, correlation does not prove causation. But there is a strong statistical correlation in state data between gun ownership (measured in various ways) and homicides.

And the international data are even more overwhelming. Countries with lots of guns in circulation have lots of gun homicides. And countries that have few guns in circulation have fewer gun homicides and fewer overall homicides. Once again correlation doesn't prove causality.

[Tapate50]

I found this reddit thread about a data map on the topic:
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeaut...s_by_us_state/


Lots of people in the comments point to a correlation between African American population and gun homicides. On freaking Reddit.


Someone also linked this, with the title "Murders In US Very Concentrated: 54% Of US Counties In 2014 Had Zero Murders, 2% Of Counties Have 51% Of The Murders"
https://crimeresearch.org/2017/04/nu...s-69-1-murder/



There's also this, which seems to indicate that rate of gun ownership is not a key factor:
https://www.businessinsider.com/gun-...y-state-2015-7

Yeah that county map makes a whole lot more sense

[nsacpi]

Someone also linked this, with the title "Murders In US Very Concentrated: 54% Of US Counties In 2014 Had Zero Murders, 2% Of Counties Have 51% Of The Murders"
https://crimeresearch.org/2017/04/nu...s-69-1-murder/

Is this a map of murders or murders per capita?

[Jaw]

Of course, correlation does not prove causation. But there is a strong statistical correlation in state data between gun ownership (measured in various ways) and homicides.

And the international data are even more overwhelming. Countries with lots of guns in circulation have lots of gun homicides. And countries that have few guns in circulation have fewer gun homicides and fewer overall homicides. Once again correlation doesn't prove causality.

How would you look at the correlation of the original map and this chart from FBI crime data (the infamous table 43a?)



I mean, I guess my heat and humidity could stand up in some places. But not as well as racial correlations.

[sturg33]

How would you look at the correlation of the original map and this chart from FBI crime data (the infamous table 43a?)



I mean, I guess my heat and humidity could stand up in some places. But not as well as racial correlations.

Obviously this is simply systemic racism and all the whites are getting away with their murders

[nsacpi]

How would you look at the correlation of the original map and this chart from FBI crime data (the infamous table 43a?)



I mean, I guess my heat and humidity could stand up in some places. But not as well as racial correlations.

I don't think I've argued that race is not a relevant variable.

I have argued there is a correlation between rates of gun ownership and rates of homicide.

[Jaw]

The thing is, we always see these maps designed to make it look like Jimbo shot Billy Bob in a red state trailer park so let's all laugh at those stupid hick Trumpkins and we need to take their guns for their own good. But the data tells a different story.

[Jaw]

I don't think I've argued that race is not a relevant variable.

I have argued there is a correlation between rates of gun ownership and rates of homicide.

It doesn't hold up well in Utah, Montana, Idaho, etc

[nsacpi]

Obviously this is simply systemic racism and all the whites are getting away with their murders

If not the result of systemic racism, including past practices such as slavery, segregation and denial of various rights, what else could explain the higher crime rates of blacks. Just asking.

Is it inferior family structure?

And where does that inferior family structure have its roots? It seems to be a multi-generational phenomenon.

[nsacpi]

It doesn't hold up well in Utah, Montana, Idaho, etc

Statistically significant correlation does allow for observations that fall some distance from the average fit.

[sturg33]

If not the result of systemic racism, including past practices such as slavery, segregation and denial of various rights, what else could explain the higher crime rates of blacks. Just asking.

Is it inferior family structure?

And where does that inferior family structure have its roots? It seems to be a multi-generational phenomenon.

I know you are all agenda, and no facts these days...

But I'll ask anyway. Do you the more than doubling of black babies born to single mothers over the last 50 years because our country has gotten more racist? 77% born to single mothers in 2015... compared to 30% in 1970

[nsacpi]

Someone also linked this, with the title "Murders In US Very Concentrated: 54% Of US Counties In 2014 Had Zero Murders, 2% Of Counties Have 51% Of The Murders"
https://crimeresearch.org/2017/04/nu...s-69-1-murder/

So is this graph based on murders or murders per capita?

[nsacpi]

I know you are all agenda, and no facts these days...

But I'll ask anyway. Do you the more than doubling of black babies born to single mothers over the last 50 years because our country has gotten more racist? 77% born to single mothers in 2015... compared to 30% in 1970

I wouldn't ascribe that to racism. I believe the proportion of white babies born to single mothers has also increased. This would suggest some common causes at work that transcend race.

However, there is indeed a racial component to single parent households that has been quite persistent over time.

So there appear to be forces peculiar to African Americans and others that affect all racial groups when it comes to family structure.

[thethe]

I know you are all agenda, and no facts these days...

But I'll ask anyway. Do you the more than doubling of black babies born to single mothers over the last 50 years because our country has gotten more racist? 77% born to single mothers in 2015... compared to 30% in 1970

This is an example of a real issue that needs to be solved and it has absolutely nothing to do with racism.

[sturg33]

I wouldn't ascribe that to racism. I believe the proportion of white babies born to single mothers has also increased. This would suggest some common causes at work that transcends race.

However, there is indeed a racial component to single parent households that has been quite persistent over time.

Well, if you believe like I do, that two parent household is the biggest predictor of future success (and thus, lack of crime)... then we ascribe certain issues to this problem. And since, this has dramatically increased in more recent history, it doesn't fit the system racism narrative like you are so desperate for it to.

IIWII

[nsacpi]

Well, if you believe like I do, that two parent household is the biggest predictor of future success (and thus, lack of crime)... then we ascribe certain issues to this problem. And since, this has dramatically increased in more recent history, it doesn't fit the system racism narrative like you are so desperate for it to.

IIWII

To repeat my prior post, there are forces that have caused single parent households to rise across pretty much all demographic groups.

And forces that have caused single mother births to be higher among African Americans than other groups for quite a long time now. I would argue at least some of that reflects racism and discrimination past and present. The legacy of slavery and denial of rights and opportunities long after slavery was legally abolished has a long tail.