Around the League - 2021 Szn

[Southcack77]

Slow down long enough to think this through. You're arguing that you're looking to fill a #3/#4 SP role with an average-ish player that you'd have to give up significant prospect capital for to get them to pay down his salary to make him next season's version of Smyly - a veteran mid-rotation starter.

Smyly, Danny Duffy, Alex Cobb, David Price, Michel Pineda, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, and Zack Greinke will all be free-agents this winter, All of those guys are likely going to get 1 or 2 year deals in the $8-$12 million range. You shouldn't need to look any further than their 2021 xFIPs to understand how stupid giving up legitimate prospects for MadBum rather than just using the money you're paying Smyly and KEEPING those prospects would be.

MadBum xFIP - 4.65

Smyly - 4.45
Duffy - 4.24
Cobb - 3.18
Price - 4.12
Pineda - 4.22
DeSclafani - 3.96
Wood - 3.57
Greinke - 4.18

Even if any or all of those guys get multiple year deals they won't be for more money than Bumgarner is owed, and (much more importantly) signing one of them will cost you exactly zero prospects. MadBum is the equivalent of Jaime Garcia when the Braves traded him to the Twins. The Twins gave up Ynoa for him. Does anyone actually have to wonder why the Twins have no homegrown pitching help when they do things like that?

Alex Wood was a favorite potential target for me this past offfseason. One reason why jumping the gun on Smyly for that number was confusing. There were other dudes. Some of them have been bad of course, some of them have been better than Smyly.

I get they thought they saw something, but they paid full price for it rather than getting a bargain, IMO.

[Russ2dollas]

Alex Wood was a favorite potential target for me this past offfseason. One reason why jumping the gun on Smyly for that number was confusing. There were other dudes. Some of them have been bad of course, some of them have been better than Smyly.

I get they thought they saw something, but they paid full price for it rather than getting a bargain, IMO.

Smyly they thought had upside.

AA's models seem to really be impressed by top performance. Smyly and the first WF pitcher we drafted come to mind. THey had velocity spikes and AA jumped all in believing that was true. I think we may need some more scouting to balance out the models.

[Southcack77]

Smyly they thought had upside.

AA's models seem to really be impressed by top performance. Smyly and the first WF pitcher we drafted come to mind. THey had velocity spikes and AA jumped all in believing that was true. I think we may need some more scouting to balance out the models.

Probably the live fastball and spin rate plus a dominant stretch.

I get what they thought they saw, but IMO they paid full price for the chance.

[clvclv]

That is if you are using xFIP which I feel isn't great because you shouldn't normalize a home run rate. Some guys are naturally more prone to give up a homer.

If you look at xwOBA you'll see that Bumgarner has actually had a much better season than a few of those guys and the others are within the range where the difference is negligible. I would argue that you aren't ignoring the numbers. You just look at the wrong ones and hopefully not looking at the ones specifically to make a point.

See, you can do something like that without a snarky remark.

And you're arguing numbers with someone that everyone that's ever spent time here knows beyond the shadow of a doubt is far from a "numbers guy".

Does it not strike you as at least a little bit strange that if I'm the one "looking at the wrong numbers" that someone else that knows something about them would step up to defend your point - even if it was just a little bit?

Trading anything of value for Bumgarner and that contract would simply be stupid - no matter how you try to justify it - unless Arizona was willing to eat enough of the money to make him a less than $5 million/year expense. Even though no one has a whole lot of confidence in them, there's a legitimate argument to be made that Muller or Davidson will be better Pitchers in 2022 than MadBum will.

[clvclv]

Probably the live fastball and spin rate plus a dominant stretch.

I get what they thought they saw, but IMO they paid full price for the chance.

There's still little question in my mind that Smyly got his money because he was the first one in a large group of "targets" that was willing to take the one year at a premium right away.

The same thing probably will probably fit that group that I mentioned before this winter - AA will probably sign the first one of those (or two if they don't convince Morton to give them another year) that will take the $1 or $2 million premium to sign right away so that he knows how much more budget he has left to fill other holes. No matter what holes you may have, you have to address the rotation first, Once that's handled (even if it costs you a little extra) you have an understanding of what you have left to spend on a potential LF platoon, DH option, potential pen upgrades, and the bench so you don't wait until the deadline to address that again.

You could make the argument that with Fried, Anderson, Ynoa, and possibly Soroka on hand at some point there's no reason to pay the extra money to get Morton to come back - if Fried/Anderson/Ynoa are your front three (in some order) all you need is a couple veteran depth pieces to keep you from having to RELY on Muller/Touki/Davidson/whomever - if 2 of the Wood/Duffy/Pineda/Smyly group will take $10 million for one year, you might be better off giving that extra $5 million to Duvall/Pederson/Soler/etc. as 3rd/4th OFs or DHs rather than paying a premium for Morton to be your "Ace" since Fried is probably good enough to be your front man to begin with.

[Southcack77]

I'm so confused that someone thinks making Bumgarner the highest paid Brave is a good idea.

[thethe]

I'm so confused that someone thinks making Bumgarner the highest paid Brave is a good idea.

And one of their top prospects was my position. Otherwise it’s to get the d backs to pay enough to make him market value.

But hey, let’s not try to be honest about other peoples positions here. Easier to just lie.

[thethe]

And you're arguing numbers with someone that everyone that's ever spent time here knows beyond the shadow of a doubt is far from a "numbers guy".

Does it not strike you as at least a little bit strange that if I'm the one "looking at the wrong numbers" that someone else that knows something about them would step up to defend your point - even if it was just a little bit?

Trading anything of value for Bumgarner and that contract would simply be stupid - no matter how you try to justify it - unless Arizona was willing to eat enough of the money to make him a less than $5 million/year expense. Even though no one has a whole lot of confidence in them, there's a legitimate argument to be made that Muller or Davidson will be better Pitchers in 2022 than MadBum will.

I just want to understand your position in these brief few posts. You believe xFIP is better than xwOBA?

If so I then have to ask what do you think each stat tries to describe?

[clvclv]

I just want to understand your position in these brief few posts. You believe xFIP is better than xwOBA?

If so I then have to ask what do you think each stat tries to describe?

My "position" is that trading for Bumgarner is a stupid idea - pick whatever metric you want to use, the fact that it would be stupid doesn't change.

[thethe]

My "position" is that trading for Bumgarner is a stupid idea - pick whatever metric you want to use, the fact that it would be stupid doesn't change.

But your original argument used a stat that put him in a bad light in comparison to your others that you said were more reasonable. That stat just happens to not be as useful as others and I hope you understand that.

[clvclv]

But your original argument used a stat that put him in a bad light in comparison to your others that you said were more reasonable. That stat just happens to not be as useful as others and I hope you understand that.

Me "understanding" a metric to your satisfaction (whether I understand it much better than you think or not) is INCREDIBLY less important than your inability to understand that any trade for Madison Bumgarner would be unbelievably stupid.

That has absolutely nothing to do with my level of familiarity with the metrics and everything to do with you looking for a way out of proposing something so stupid. The others are more reasonable because 1.) they're better Pitchers, and 2.) signing them won't cost you any prospects regardless of their organizational rank. The fact that you think they're going to package a top prospect with him to unload his contract is even more ridiculous - they're not going to be remotely close to competing with the Dodgers, Padres, or Giants during Bumgarner's deal and they have almost no money on their books beyond what they're paying him.

[thethe]

Me "understanding" a metric to your satisfaction (whether I understand it much better than you think or not) is INCREDIBLY less important than your inability to understand that any trade for Madison Bumgarner would be unbelievably stupid.

That has absolutely nothing to do with my level of familiarity with the metrics and everything to do with you looking for a way out of proposing something so stupid. The others are more reasonable because 1.) they're better Pitchers, and 2.) signing them won't cost you any prospects regardless of their organizational rank. The fact that you think they're going to package a top prospect with him to unload his contract is even more ridiculous - they're not going to be remotely close to competing with the Dodgers, Padres, or Giants during Bumgarner's deal and they have almost no money on their books beyond what they're paying him.

The D-backs have a history of doing that so not sure why we would rule it out.

You think those guys are better right now based on an inferior metric. I'm happy to go into it further if you want but your original premise relied upon xFIP.

If the D-backs pay to get his contract at market value then we give a middling prospect at best and are basically paying market price for a 32 year old pitcher that looks to be pitching his best ball in five years. Lets also ignore the pedigree of Bumgarner for a team that has eyes on winning a world series. So sure, if you want to throw money at Cobb then thats your decision. I'd rather have Bumgarner.

[bravesfanMatt]

are we still debating this after 2 days. Are we now just saying the same things over and over again at this point.

[clvclv]

The D-backs have a history of doing that so not sure why we would rule it out.

You think those guys are better right now based on an inferior metric. I'm happy to go into it further if you want but your original premise relied upon xFIP.

If the D-backs pay to get his contract at market value then we give a middling prospect at best and are basically paying market price for a 32 year old pitcher that looks to be pitching his best ball in five years. Lets also ignore the pedigree of Bumgarner for a team that has eyes on winning a world series. So sure, if you want to throw money at Cobb then thats your decision. I'd rather have Bumgarner.

My original premise could have relied on his dick size for all that it matters - trading for him would still be stupid.

Apparently you're so much smarter than the rest of the analytically-inclined crowd that even they don't understand your infatuation with him. You've noticed that none of them has chimed in and said " Wow, I didn't realize Bumgarner's gjn&r5*7h61%OBA after he gets 2 strikes on hitters in the 3rd inning was 7.3485863 - I think AA ought to trade for him.", right?

[thethe]

My original premise could have relied on his dick size for all that it matters - trading for him would still be stupid.

Apparently you're so much smarter than the rest of the analytically-inclined crowd that even they don't understand your infatuation with him. You've noticed that none of them has chimed in and said " Wow, I didn't realize Bumgarner's gjn&r5*7h61%OBA after he gets 2 strikes on hitters in the 3rd inning was 7.3485863 - I think AA ought to trade for him.", right?

There was actually one poster that when they reviewed the more current stats concluded that Bumgarner is much better than people are giving him credit for.

[thewupk]

are we still debating this after 2 days. Are we now just saying the same things over and over again at this point.

yes.....and yes

[thethe]

yes.....and yes

But what about Bumgarner?

[thewupk]

But what about Bumgarner?

has the production we are looking for to fill a vet spot in the rotation. not worth picking up due to contract

[thethe]

has the production we are looking for to fill a vet spot in the rotation. not worth picking up due to contract

Would you pay for his production on the open market?

[thewupk]

Would you pay for his production on the open market?

I'd pay him the Smyly contract for 1 season