Acuna

[thethe]

Also you have to realize that Swanson is really only going to have 1 chance to cash in on a big deal if he proves to be the player we hope he is. He's going to be a FA after his age 28 season. He is less likely to sign away 2-3 years of FA like Teheran. A more likely scenario is either a bigger deal (which wouldn't be great for the Braves as you are then paying for non prime years) or either leaving via FA.

Fair point...especially if his hitting doesn't develop as he ages.

[bravesfanMatt]

Also you have to realize that Swanson is really only going to have 1 chance to cash in on a big deal if he proves to be the player we hope he is. He's going to be a FA after his age 28 season. He is less likely to sign away 2-3 years of FA like Teheran. A more likely scenario is either a bigger deal (which wouldn't be great for the Braves as you are then paying for non prime years) or either leaving via FA.

we could easily buy out his arb years, plus 1 extra year and then throw a nice team option(s) on the back end to control him through 30..

[thewupk]

we could easily buy out his arb years, plus 1 extra year and then throw a nice team option(s) on the back end to control him through 30..

That would be an ideal scenario. However Swanson is likely to get a much bigger deal by hitting FA as a 28 year old instead of a 30 year old. If I'm Swanson I'm going to want to hit FA asap while I'm still in my prime not after it.

[jpx7]

That would be an ideal scenario. However Swanson is likely to get a much bigger deal by hitting FA as a 28 year old instead of a 30 year old. If I'm Swanson I'm going to want to hit FA asap while I'm still in my prime not after it.

That's a big part of the calculus with selecting college players—there's a bit more floor-certainty, in terms of production; but, because of the age windows, a bit less likelihood in securing cost-certainty (especially post-arb) if they do make it to the majors.

[thewupk]

That's a big part of the calculus with selecting college players—there's a bit more floor-certainty, in terms of production; but, because of the age windows, a bit less likelihood in securing cost-certainty (especially post-arb) if they do make it to the majors.

I agree. Which is why securing that extra of Swanson is kind of a big deal. It's less important for Albies and possibly Acua in the future. They are going to be real young and much more likely would agree to buying out 2-3 years of FA for security like Julio did. And then they would still be able to hit FA in their prime and cash in on a big deal if they desire.

[bravesfanMatt]

That would be an ideal scenario. However Swanson is likely to get a much bigger deal by hitting FA as a 28 year old instead of a 30 year old. If I'm Swanson I'm going to want to hit FA asap while I'm still in my prime not after it.

yes, but a bird in the hand is sometimes better than 2 in the bush. guaranteed money now is better than risking performance/injury for a slightly larger payday down the road. That is why you extend him early on.. you reduce your cost because the team assumes the risk, not the player.

[thewupk]

yes, but a bird in the hand is sometimes better than 2 in the bush. guaranteed money now is better than risking performance/injury for a slightly larger payday down the road. That is why you extend him early on.. you reduce your cost because the team assumes the risk, not the player.

Clearly not every player feels this way. We will see how it shakes out with Swanson if he even becomes the player that we would want to do this with. He's in a similar situation with where Folty is currently. We have him and Swanson for the majority of their primes already. For us to assume the risk of a guaranteed contract we would need some pretty heavily discounted FA years. Not every player is willing to do that for their age 29-30ish seasons.

[mfree80]

yes, but a bird in the hand is sometimes better than 2 in the bush. guaranteed money now is better than risking performance/injury for a slightly larger payday down the road. That is why you extend him early on.. you reduce your cost because the team assumes the risk, not the player.

This is an interesting discussion. I can't help but think about our own Baby Braves Frenchy and McCann. Our understanding here is that both were offered similar extensions. McCann said yes, while Frenchy held out for the bigger payday down the road. Frenchy's big payday never came because he didn't develop as projected. He has carved out a respectable career, but never did get the big deal he held out for. McCann certainly became a better player in the long run, but even if he hadn't, the early extension gave him financial security. Of equal importance, McCann is very well respected in Atlanta and around Baseball, while Frenchy is just another journeyman ball player.

[bravesfanMatt]

Clearly not every player feels this way. We will see how it shakes out with Swanson if he even becomes the player that we would want to do this with. He's in a similar situation with where Folty is currently. We have him and Swanson for the majority of their primes already. For us to assume the risk of a guaranteed contract we would need some pretty heavily discounted FA years. Not every player is willing to do that for their age 29-30ish seasons.

True, but I think more are likely to take the guarantee... If I am faced with a contract that reads 7 years 65 million.. with team option for 8th year at 12 million.. I would be hard pressed to turn that down in hopes that I rock and get 110 million at age 28.. Even at 30/31 and hitting FA... he is going to get a handsome paycheck.

...btw, I completely tossed arbitrary numbers out. I have no idea right now what is fair market for a Swanson extension.

[bravesfanMatt]

This is an interesting discussion. I can't help but think about our own Baby Braves Frenchy and McCann. Our understanding here is that both were offered similar extensions. McCann said yes, while Frenchy held out for the bigger payday down the road. Frenchy's big payday never came because he didn't develop as projected. He has carved out a respectable career, but never did get the big deal he held out for. McCann certainly became a better player in the long run, but even if he hadn't, the early extension gave him financial security. Of equal importance, McCann is very well respected in Atlanta and around Baseball, while Frenchy is just another journeyman ball player.

great post. Heyward (by some reports) also held out and that worked out well for him..

[TheBravos]

It could very well be also, that since Atlanta is home, he would be willing to take the reasonable contract if he is where he wants to be and not look for the maximum payday. Doesn't mean he will, but I would certainly take a little less to be exactly where I wanted to be.

[thewupk]

True, but I think more are likely to take the guarantee... If I am faced with a contract that reads 7 years 65 million.. with team option for 8th year at 12 million.. I would be hard pressed to turn that down in hopes that I rock and get 110 million at age 28.. Even at 30/31 and hitting FA... he is going to get a handsome paycheck.

...btw, I completely tossed arbitrary numbers out. I have no idea right now what is fair market for a Swanson extension.

It's easy to say that I would do that too. But we aren't pro MLB players. We don't have agents in our ears telling us different things. I'm not sure what Swanson is going to end up doing. If he plays well this year I would offer him a contract through his age 30 season and hope he takes it. A lot of players do this. Some don't. And Swanson is the type of player, age wise, that would turn that sort of deal down more than someone who would be a few years younger.

To me it's just an added risk. We simple had to not play Swanson until a couple of weeks into this year and we would be guaranteed to have his 29 age season if we wanted.

[Enscheff]

we could easily buy out his arb years, plus 1 extra year and then throw a nice team option(s) on the back end to control him through 30..

Still missing the point. Absolute best case scenario is Swanson's age 29 season costs the Braves ~$10M more than it would have otherwise. Assuming the Braves payroll will increase to around $150M by then, his early promotion cost the Braves ~6% of their total payroll for that season.

And for what? To have his awesome hair in the lineup for the first 2 weeks to open up a new ballpark?

It was a complete mismanagement of a very valuable asset.

[bravesfanMatt]

Still missing the point. Absolute best case scenario is Swanson's age 29 season costs the Braves ~$10M more than it would have otherwise. Assuming the Braves payroll will increase to around $150M by then, his early promotion cost the Braves ~6% of their total payroll for that season.

And for what? To have his awesome hair in the lineup for the first 2 weeks to open up a new ballpark?

It was a complete mismanagement of a very valuable asset.

so you think coppy was sitting at his desk eating a burrito watching his 'Soaps' when a few of his scouts came in and said, 'hey, we need to replace E-Bar, what do you want to do?' Coppy with his bib securely around his neck, looks at them dumbfounded for a minute, and finally says, 'what about that kid we got when I gave Stewart that handy in the Cheetah... lets bring him up, he has good hair.'

[jpx7]

so you think coppy was sitting at his desk eating a burrito watching his 'Soaps' when a few of his scouts came in and said, 'hey, we need to replace E-Bar, what do you want to do?' Coppy with his bib securely around his neck, looks at them dumbfounded for a minute, and finally says, 'what about that kid we got when I gave Stewart that handy in the Cheetah... lets bring him up, he has good hair.'

Pretty sure they were flautas, but yea, essentially.

[bravesfanMatt]

Pretty sure they were flautas, but yea, essentially.

they are good too.

[Enscheff]

so you think coppy was sitting at his desk eating a burrito watching his 'Soaps' when a few of his scouts came in and said, 'hey, we need to replace E-Bar, what do you want to do?' Coppy with his bib securely around his neck, looks at them dumbfounded for a minute, and finally says, 'what about that kid we got when I gave Stewart that handy in the Cheetah... lets bring him up, he has good hair.'

I claim Coppy is an average GM, not a buffoon. He clearly knows the cost associated with promoting Swanson early.

There has undoubtedly been pressure to put a "winner" on the field in time for the new ballpark. They probably knew Swanson was part of the "winner" they were going to sell to the ignorant fan base to open the new ballpark since the moment Dave Stewart gifted him to the Braves. This is why we see Swanson's face everywhere in interview after interview leading up to this season.

Knowing Swanson would be the SS on opening day 2017, there was no service time to lose by promoting him last season. So in s sense, yes, they said "what the hell" and promoted him to replace Aybar.

That's why it happened, but that still doesn't mean it was the optimal way to handle one of the Braves most valuable assets.

[bravesfanMatt]

I claim Coppy is an average GM, not a buffoon. He clearly knows the cost associated with promoting Swanson early.

There has undoubtedly been pressure to put a "winner" on the field in time for the new ballpark. They probably knew Swanson was part of the "winner" they were going to sell to the ignorant fan base to open the new ballpark since the moment Dave Stewart gifted him to the Braves. This is why we see Swanson's face everywhere in interview after interview leading up to this season.

Knowing Swanson would be the SS on opening day 2017, there was no service time to lose by promoting him last season. So in s sense, yes, they said "what the hell" and promoted him to replace Aybar.

That's why it happened, but that still doesn't mean it was the optimal way to handle one of the Braves most valuable assets.

I think you missed my point.

try to lighten up a bit.. have fun WATCHING baseball. New season, new hopes, new hopes crushed. But at least have fun while doing it. Stop being so micro internet manager and put a little TheThe in ya.

[TheBravos]

Yeah, I hated that move and you can pretty
much bet it lost us three draft spots...THREE. This new ballpark really threw a wrench in the rebuild plans. Now they are announcing the rebuild is over. How do you win 68 games and announce that?? It's all bull crap to put butts in the seats.

[nsacpi]

so you think coppy was sitting at his desk eating a burrito watching his 'Soaps' when a few of his scouts came in and said, 'hey, we need to replace E-Bar, what do you want to do?' Coppy with his bib securely around his neck, looks at them dumbfounded for a minute, and finally says, 'what about that kid we got when I gave Stewart that handy in the Cheetah... lets bring him up, he has good hair.'

according to JC himself he didn't think Swanson was ready but the two Johns talked him into it