It's Soroka Time

[jpx7]

Going into the offseason, if that 12 M meant a huge upgrade in LF... id be all over letting him go for a middling return.

I’d think trading him in-season this year would be more likely to yield a scenario where the Braves don’t have to eat money and/or receive at least a middling return—though I do wonder how his market might be improved if the Braves offered to cover his 2018 salary (already budgeted) but not his 2019 dough.

This all might be academic if he can’t pitch healthily and solidly over the next two months.

[Enscheff]

Weird. So 85 with horizontal movement is better than 90 with less horizontal movement?

ETA... which of those 3 are most important on fastball? Velocity?

Depends on how much movement. I weighted the SL components as:

speed 11 21.6%
x 25 49.0%
z 15 29.4 %

Velocity is by far the most important aspect of FAs and SIs, but movement can add/subtract a half a grade or more (as is the case with Fried's (bad) and Hill's (good) FA).

[AerchAngel]

same

Ich auch!

[GovClintonTyree]

Depends on how much movement. I weighted the SL components as:

speed 11 21.6%
x 25 49.0%
z 15 29.4 %

Velocity is by far the most important aspect of FAs and SIs, but movement can add/subtract a half a grade or more (as is the case with Fried's (bad) and Hill's (good) FA).

While we're all being civil, I recall you saying "there's no such thing as late movement," I'm paraphrasing...

I know I can delay a bowling ball's reaction point by changing its weight, axis, hardness and speed, but in that scenario, I guess, there's the additional variable of the lane and its dressing pattern, whereas I suppose the slipperiness of the air is the same at release as it is closer to home plate...

But when I was pitching I thought I was throwing two different pitches, a big bender out of my hand and one with a short, quick break closer to the plate. In fact, Greg Maddox said one time he wanted every pitch to move with short, quick breaks, because he felt big ones allowed hitters to reload. Maybe I was throwing a slurve.

Your thoughts?

[Enscheff]

While we're all being civil, I recall you saying "there's no such thing as late movement," I'm paraphrasing...

I know I can delay a bowling ball's reaction point by changing its weight, axis, hardness and speed, but in that scenario, I guess, there's the additional variable of the lane and its dressing pattern, whereas I suppose the slipperiness of the air is the same at release as it is closer to home plate...

But when I was pitching I thought I was throwing two different pitches, a big bender out of my hand and one with a short, quick break closer to the plate. In fact, Greg Maddox said one time he wanted every pitch to move with short, quick breaks, because he felt big ones allowed hitters to reload. Maybe I was throwing a slurve.

Your thoughts?

My thoughts on the issue are completely irrelevant. Only the facts are relevant.

Physics dictates there is no such thing as "late break". All pitches start curving the moment they leave the pitcher's hand due to the 3 constant external forces (magus force, drag, gravity) acting on every baseball on the planet from the moment of release until the ball is either caught or hit. The magus force is responsible for any break a pitch has, and is a function of velocity, spin rate, axis of spin, and the drag coefficient of the air at the time.

The ball starts doing whatever it is going to do as soon as it leaves the pitcher's hand.

A good simplified explanation here:

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/the-ph...of-late-break/

Which borrows from Dr. Alan Nathan's work here:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/n...te-break-real/

The 20 word summary: people confuse "late break" with "tunneling", which is making one pitch look like another pitch as long as possible.

[rico43]

My thoughts on the issue are completely irrelevant. Only the facts are relevant.

Physics dictates there is no such thing as "late break". All pitches start curving the moment they leave the pitcher's hand due to the 3 constant external forces (magus force, drag, gravity) acting on every baseball on the planet from the moment of release until the ball is either caught or hit. The magus force is responsible for any break a pitch has, and is a function of velocity, spin rate, axis of spin, and the drag coefficient of the air at the time.

The ball starts doing whatever it is going to do as soon as it leaves the pitcher's hand.

A good simplified explanation here:

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/the-ph...of-late-break/

Which borrows from Dr. Alan Nathan's work here:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/n...te-break-real/

The 20 word summary: people confuse "late break" with "tunneling", which is making one pitch look like another pitch as long as possible.

Terrific explanation. Thanks.

[rico43]

Sad to tell you folks is that Soroka will not be given a chance to succeed at the level people are dreaming about. They will have him on a ridiculously low pitch count and will pull him in a heartbeat. That way, they can maintain the lie that he's not ready and allow this do-nothing front office to do nothing (trade-wise) for a little while longer. If he lasts five innings, regardless of the lead, I will be pleasantly surprised.

If A.A. had developed a set yet, they would have a significant deal in place to create this slot in the rotation moving forward. Soroka need not see Gwinnett again unless it's to pick up his personal effects.

[Carp]

Excited to see Soroka. I don't think it means much though. I fully expect him to be optioned back to AAA after the start unless JT needs more time.

As far as JT, he doesn't need to regain his 2016 form to be a valuable trade chip. All he needs to do is be league average or better and we should be able to get a decent haul (one 50 FV prospect) without taking on any money. The market for pitchers is looking super thin for this deadline. Archer will likely be the headliner, but we could find that JT is the 2nd or 3rd best starter available.

[GeorgiaGirl]

Sad to tell you folks is that Soroka will not be given a chance to succeed at the level people are dreaming about. They will have him on a ridiculously low pitch count and will pull him in a heartbeat. That way, they can maintain the lie that he's not ready and allow this do-nothing front office to do nothing (trade-wise) for a little while longer. If he lasts five innings, regardless of the lead, I will be pleasantly surprised.

If A.A. had developed a set yet, they would have a significant deal in place to create this slot in the rotation moving forward. Soroka need not see Gwinnett again unless it's to pick up his personal effects.

They can simply...not start Sanchez. As my feeling (or at least hopeful thought) is that Soroka has surpassed Gohara in their eyes. Unless they saw otherwise, Sanchez was SUPPOSED to be a placeholder...

[Russ2dollas]

They can simply...not start Sanchez. As my feeling (or at least hopeful thought) is that Soroka has surpassed Gohara in their eyes. Unless they saw otherwise, Sanchez was SUPPOSED to be a placeholder...

Excited to see the stat cast data analysis

Looked like good derick Lowe to me

[Carp]

Definitely reminiscent of Lowe. Also saw a bit of AJ Burnett, I believe.

[Hawk]

Also saw a bit of AJ Burnett, I believe.

Good comp

[AerchAngel]

Sad to tell you folks is that Soroka will not be given a chance to succeed at the level people are dreaming about. They will have him on a ridiculously low pitch count and will pull him in a heartbeat. That way, they can maintain the lie that he's not ready and allow this do-nothing front office to do nothing (trade-wise) for a little while longer. If he lasts five innings, regardless of the lead, I will be pleasantly surprised.

If A.A. had developed a set yet, they would have a significant deal in place to create this slot in the rotation moving forward. Soroka need not see Gwinnett again unless it's to pick up his personal effects.

<cough> ahem <cough>

[AerchAngel]

My thoughts on the issue are completely irrelevant. Only the facts are relevant.

Physics dictates there is no such thing as "late break". All pitches start curving the moment they leave the pitcher's hand due to the 3 constant external forces (magus force, drag, gravity) acting on every baseball on the planet from the moment of release until the ball is either caught or hit. The magus force is responsible for any break a pitch has, and is a function of velocity, spin rate, axis of spin, and the drag coefficient of the air at the time.

The ball starts doing whatever it is going to do as soon as it leaves the pitcher's hand.

A good simplified explanation here:

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/the-ph...of-late-break/

Which borrows from Dr. Alan Nathan's work here:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/n...te-break-real/

The 20 word summary: people confuse "late break" with "tunneling", which is making one pitch look like another pitch as long as possible.

Why do you tease us so much with this great information? I've learned something new, something I NEVER heard of before.

[cajunrevenge]

Well that makes me feel less bad about barely being able to recognize pitches.

[Enscheff]

Back to Soroka...

The actual results of this start are virtually inconsequential. I will be looking in earnest for a few things:

1. A Grade 60+ SI, meaning ~94 MPH through 80+ pitches with 8"-9" of arm side run and less than 6" of rise.
2. A Grade 50+ breaking ball.
3. Flashes of a Grade 50+ CH.
4. No stretches of 4-5 consecutive pitches where he completely loses control.

After 1 start and 80 pitches, what did we see?

SI (38): 94.0 mph = Grade 58.2 | 8.8" HMov = Grade 53.2 | 2.3" VMov = Grade 65.8

This SI checks in as a true plus or better pitch. I have to hang a 65+ overall grade on it. It is as advertised and exactly what I was hoping to see.

FA (22): 94.2 mph = Grade 54.1 | 1.4" HMov = Grade 28.7 | 6.8" VMov = Grade 30.4

The FA is...not good. Above average velocity, but the same low spin rate that gives him the amazing SI prevents him from having a good FA. He threw it 25% of the time last night, but he needs to only use it as a spot-up pitch...maybe less. It is straight, flat, and will get crushed worse than Fried's. I would strongly suggest shelving this pitch.

SL (16): 86.9 mph = Grade 59.9 | 4.2" HMov = Grade 74.1 | -1.5" VMov = Grade 30.4

This is a sweeper of a SL with good velocity. Definitely a Grade 60+ pitch overall...as long as he doesn't throw it middle-middle to Cespedes.

CH (4): 10.1 mph delta = Grade 61.5 | 7.2" HMov = Grade 46.6 | 5.7" VMov = Grade 46.7

The CH has a plus velocity delta from the SI, and a touch below average movement. Very small sample, but this flashes as an average Grade 50+ CH overall.

Command: 0 BBs, and he looked to be hitting spots until he tired around the 40-50 pitch mark. Easily 60 grade command, and I'm willing to bet it gets better as he "learns how to pitch".

Soroka was as advertised, and showed exactly what I wanted to see...almost eerily exact. The FA needs to hit the bricks, but the 65 SI, 60 SL and 50 CH will play nicely with 60+ command. This is what durable young #3 SPs who flash a couple #2 seasons look like. My comp on Soroka for a while now has been 2002-2011 Derek Lowe when he was churning out 200 IP season like clockwork, and I'm going to stick by it.

[nsacpi]

keep in mind Soroka travelled from Atlanta on Tuesday before pitching...crazy they didn't get him a flight on Monday

[jpx7]

keep in mind Soroka travelled from Atlanta on Tuesday before pitching...crazy they didn't get him a flight on Monday

Tuesdays usually present cheaper airfares.

[sturg33]

Would anybody support a 6 man rotation until the inevitable injury or flame out?

I think I would. Would limit soroka and Newcomb innings and maybe protect Mcarthy?

[bravesfanMatt]

Tuesdays usually present cheaper airfares.

Your mind. It must be an interesting place.