Castillo would immediately be the Best SP in the Braves organization.
He currently relies a little too heavily on a flat 96 FA, and would probably be even better if he leaned on his 96 SI with 70 grade movement more often. The SI is something like a grade 70 pitch that generates something like 70% grounders, and for some reason he only uses it 21% of the time.
I think Pache is pretty clearly the best prospect in the system, but if there was any trade where it would be OK to use him it would be for a guy like Castillo. I think Pache is pretty much off limits, but if AA can get Castillo for Waters plus Anderson/Wright and some other filler he seems like a guy who's just a pitch usage tweak away from being a true TOR guy. Maybe they would have interest in Riley, but with Suarez and Senzel it's less likely they they would want Riley.
I know. Two years ago and folded into the career rate (he's only been in the majors 3 seasons). I would expect regression toward the career rate. It's not like his 2018 numbers didn't happen.
Contrast that with Stroman who in the last three seasons has put up GB rates of 62.1 in 2017, 62.1 again in 2018 and 57.9 in 2019. In his case, I would express the GB rate to regress upward from what we've seen so far in 2019.
Last edited by nsacpi; 07-17-2019 at 10:59 AM.
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Castillo needs to throw his Grade 70+ SI more, and his flat FA less. The SI generates a lot of GBs, and a pitch usage tweak could make him even more effective. He currently throws the FA about 2x as often as the SI despite being a far inferior pitch, and that needs to change.
Folks who think Castillo is a great SP are correct. Obviously, the whole being a pitcher thing makes him risky, but he's legit and would be the best pitcher in the organization the moment the trade happened.
i don't hesitate at Waters/Anderson + filler for Castillo.
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Yes...it's 3.09, which would be perfectly acceptable. You conveniently picked his last 6 starts to avoid the 5.2 IP outing with 1 BB, which would make 12 BBs in his last 37.2 IP...a BB/9 of 2.88.
You're not exactly an expert on BB rates. Anderson is 21 in AA, and his BB rate is not really something to worry about yet.
I wonder if there is a mindset out amongst orgs that a pitchers best pitch isn’t always the one he should throw the most. Take Jackson and his slider. You will see him follow the same playbook of locating a fastball or two then trying to finish guys off with his slider. So a guy like Castillo, he tries to get ahead and then use the sinker/slider combo. I would hope not. I hate watching guys pitch and the sequence is so obvious that I am calling pitches before they get thrown.
Coppy
Also if we trade Waters we have the money sign somebody like Ozuna in the offseason. Castillo, Soroka, DK would be a legit top 3 in the playoffs.
If we trade waters do we get the truck back?
Coppy
Indeed:
They didn’t wait because they think they’ll win anything; they waited because they think they can yet extract more value out of their assets.San Francisco's recent success isn't throwing a wrench in the team's trade-Bumgarner-and-all-the-relievers plan. Even with their best run of the year, the Giants are three games below .500 and have the third-worst run differential in the NL. They are selling. One more time, a bit slower. They. Are. Selling. Which is a difficult thing to pitch to a fan base and clubhouse of players who are enjoying this winning stuff.
[...]
The Giants tried to jump the deadline on a Bumgarner deal a month ago. When nothing substantive came of that, they resolved to wait -- and interested teams believe that waiting will continue until close to July 31. Everyone knows what Bumgarner is. The actual prices they're willing to pay won't reveal themselves until the clock starts ticking louder.
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Carp (07-17-2019), chop2chip (07-17-2019), Southcack77 (07-17-2019)
I didn't conveniently leave off anything. I wanted to go with 5 starts, but one was abbreviated at only 1 IP so I added another. It may not worry you yet, but it's why I don't view him as an untouchable asset. His career BB/9 is 4.65, which is Newk-esque. 4.27 for the whole year and 4.19 last year at AA. If someone will cut us a deal that treats him like a future ace, I'll take that deal in a heartbeat.