Playoffs Thread

[goldfly]

what a great game

long live baseball

[Metaphysicist]

Not to mention the fact that while Beane had the right idea in mind (making data-centric decisions), some of his assumptions were just flat out wrong. His position that defense didn't matter cost the Athletics wins. People don't realize that Chris Pratt Hatteberg (who did have a good first year in Oakland) was a replacement level player for the next three years in Oakland. He was one of the shining examples of Beane's brilliance from Lewis' book. The data we have now shows that Beane was wrong.

(a) Hatteberg was fine defensively at first; no idea what you are talking about. Hatteberg was a wild success for Beane. He paid him nothing (<$5m total) and got good value (6+ WAR) over three years. He sucked his fourth year (i.e., he got old, 35+), and then the A's let him go.

(b) Beane never claimed "defense didn't matter." Neither does the team's performance record bear that out. The overall team defense on the 2002-2003 teams was right about average, and they had some great defeneders, like Mark Ellis and Eric Chavez. It's not like they put Hatteberg at shortstop or something. And again, Hatteberg was perfectly fine as a defensive 1B.

(c) I don't know how people still a decade and half later don't understand what that book was about. The underlying premise was not that other teams were not stupid for missing out on the brilliance of Scott Hatteberg and Jaremy Brown. The point was the A's had no money. They had to try something crazy and different because they (a) couldn't pay normal free agents to replace the stars they were losing and (b) couldn't even pay slot for all their draft picks they got as compensation.

Further, the specific edge they identified in the book, that OBP is way more important than BA, was so wildly and successfully accurate, that now no one even argues about it.

[Metaphysicist]

Also, that was a great game.

[Super]

vin scully is not the least bit overrated. dude is just incredible.

[cajunrevenge]

I would disagree that the Ma's couldn't pay slot money for all the picks. They did not want to. That money is a drop in the bucket compared to even the A's payroll at the time. Teams will spend 10 million on a backup player and day they can't afford to pay a draft pick 450k.

[depley]

my take on the playoff so far is that there is way to much managing going on. Take last nights game, why on earth do you remove a starter after 60 pitches and having only given up 1 run? Then use up your entire bullpen and all your bench players only to end up in extra innings and a loss? Seems to me that managers are trying too hard for matchups instead of playing the game that got them there in the first place. Pitchers are being put in positions they are not accustomed to and it is backfiring time and time again.

[Enscheff]

my take on the playoff so far is that there is way to much managing going on. Take last nights game, why on earth do you remove a starter after 60 pitches and having only given up 1 run? Then use up your entire bullpen and all your bench players only to end up in extra innings and a loss? Seems to me that managers are trying too hard for matchups instead of playing the game that got them there in the first place. Pitchers are being put in positions they are not accustomed to and it is backfiring time and time again.

The idea was clearly to not let Hill face all the RHers at the top of the Astros lineup a 3rd time. Maeda was brought in to face those guys. If anything, they should have allowed Maeda to get a few more outs.

I wouldn't say they are failing time and time again. These teams have gotten this far by using these BP strategies in the playoffs. Scoring in the playoffs is lower than it's ever been, so the strategy is working.

[Enscheff]

Perfect explanation here:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/in-d...-dave-roberts/

[50PoundHead]

(a) Hatteberg was fine defensively at first; no idea what you are talking about. Hatteberg was a wild success for Beane. He paid him nothing (<$5m total) and got good value (6+ WAR) over three years. He sucked his fourth year (i.e., he got old, 35+), and then the A's let him go.

(b) Beane never claimed "defense didn't matter." Neither does the team's performance record bear that out. The overall team defense on the 2002-2003 teams was right about average, and they had some great defeneders, like Mark Ellis and Eric Chavez. It's not like they put Hatteberg at shortstop or something. And again, Hatteberg was perfectly fine as a defensive 1B.

(c) I don't know how people still a decade and half later don't understand what that book was about. The underlying premise was not that other teams were not stupid for missing out on the brilliance of Scott Hatteberg and Jaremy Brown. The point was the A's had no money. They had to try something crazy and different because they (a) couldn't pay normal free agents to replace the stars they were losing and (b) couldn't even pay slot for all their draft picks they got as compensation.

Further, the specific edge they identified in the book, that OBP is way more important than BA, was so wildly and successfully accurate, that now no one even argues about it.

I just always thought that Lewis' narrative and Beane's moves didn't match up at a number of junctures. Sure, the undervaluing of certain player qualities and how the A's took advantage of that in assembling their team, but at the same time, Beane ran Terrence Long out there for three years and he's pretty much the antithesis of the approach Lewis praised.

The other thing is that I never saw a whole lot of "new" in what Lewis wrote. Anyone who played junior high baseball has heard "a walk is as good as a hit." Of course, I watched the Twins throughout my youth when they were run by notorious penny-pincher Calvin Griffith and saw his GMs put together some competitive teams on a shoestring using many of the same strategies employed by the A's two decades later. Those teams didn't enjoy the A's level of success, but I still think the thing that made the A's so special is the core of really great players they had (Giambi, Tejada, Chavez, Hudson, Zito, Mulder) for part of all of their first run. Beane--for the most part--deserves credit for drafting, signing, and developing those guys as he well should, but with players like that, you have a lot of leeway on how you fill out the rest of the roster. I think the A's were able to do some bargain hunting and I think where OBP really matters for guys like Frank Menechino is that it really raises their floor. It's very rare in baseball that a team can have an All-Star or near All-Star at every position and a team is going to have to make risk/reward judgments as you fill out the team. A's did a lot of effective mixing and matching.

As for Hatteberg, he was a good player at several stops, but I can't get over how Beane somehow gets a pass on trading Carlos Pena along with Jeremy Bonderman for Ted Lilly (and a couple of non-contributors).

As for the A's draft strategy, everyone who plays the resource angle needs to read that chapter again. It may have been money (and time) from Beane's perspective, but Lewis clearly thought that what the A's were doing was superior to what other teams were doing. And that approach did produce some solid major league players (Blanton, Teahen, and others). But two or three years later, Lewis wrote a piece in The New York Times Sunday Magazine that ripped on the A's player development staff because they were mishandling Steve Stanley and Teahen in Lewis' eyes.

Again, although I fall more comfortably in the traditionalist category (similar to what Smoltz was talking about last night), I am not anti-analytics. I read all of the early Bill James' stuff and bought the comprehensive annual tomes put together by Elias in the early/mid-1980s (that I bequeathed to MFII a few years back). Lots of really good information that helps round out the truth on players' performance.

As for last night's game, thought the Dodgers had it in the bag with Jansen on the hill, so I turned it off. I'm at a conference and had other things going on. I get the logic behind removing Hill (although he had handled Houston's RHHs fairly well to that point), but I agree with enscheff that if you are bringing in Maeda at that point, let him keep going instead of taking him out after five outs.

[CrimsonCowboy]

Don't understand how you East Coasters do this. The game ended at 9:30 PM in California and I was tempted to turn the TV off and head to bed. I can't imagine staying up past midnight

Little bit better for me, since I’m in Central Time

[Enscheff]

my take on the playoff so far is that there is way to much managing going on. Take last nights game, why on earth do you remove a starter after 60 pitches and having only given up 1 run? Then use up your entire bullpen and all your bench players only to end up in extra innings and a loss? Seems to me that managers are trying too hard for matchups instead of playing the game that got them there in the first place. Pitchers are being put in positions they are not accustomed to and it is backfiring time and time again.

I do think there is some validity to the bold part of your comment though.

I think it would be wise for contenders to play 1-2 games per month as if they are playoff games. When the BP is well rested (meaning the high leverage BP arms didn't pitch the day before), and there is a scheduled off day following the game, they should play the game like a playoff game.

SP goes 2x through the order, maybe extend that to 19-20 batters if he has a platoon advantage.

High leverage guys take over in the 5th based strictly on match ups, and are expected to get 4+ outs.

I think there could be real benefits to putting players through that type of strategy a handful of times during the regular season when possible so they aren't doing it for the first time in the playoffs.

[50PoundHead]

I do think there is some validity to the bold part of your comment though.

I think it would be wise for contenders to play 1-2 games per month as if they are playoff games. When the BP is well rested (meaning the high leverage BP arms didn't pitch the day before), and there is a scheduled off day following the game, they should play the game like a playoff game.

SP goes 2x through the order, maybe extend that to 19-20 batters if he has a platoon advantage.

High leverage guys take over in the 5th based strictly on match ups, and are expected to get 4+ outs.

I think there could be real benefits to putting players through that type of strategy a handful of times during the regular season when possible so they aren't doing it for the first time in the playoffs.

Dodgers had a lot of space to do more experimenting down the stretch and probably should have used it. Trying to figure out why McCarthy is on the playoff roster. He was injured for a good portion of 2017 and isn't really a reliever. Expanding on one of Enscheff's points, I think teams that look to be playoff bound should start acclimating their entire pitching staff to their expected post-season roles throughout the latter stages of the season. It used to be different way back when because it wasn't rare to see starting pitchers used in relief. Of course, that was in the era of ten-man (sometimes fewer) staffs.

[Knucksie]

I've got an official lineup card. He was starter with the Gwinnett Braves. Will pull it out after returning home tomorrow.

Dug this out. Dated 5/13/09 and signed by Ken Oberkfell, who was G-braves manager.


Morton was SP. Lead off and CF was Geegor Blanco, Brooks Conrad was 2B and Boone Logan was in BP. For Buffalo (Mets affiliate at the time) Angel Pagan was lead off and CF. Jose Reyes was at short and batting 8th.

[UNCBlue012]

Astros are on fiyah

[msstate7]

Nice AB, Cody

[Enscheff]

Morrow is the #1 BP arm I would like to see the Braves sign, but not for $7M+ Per year over 2-3 years. I can't imagine the Dodgers allow anyone to outbid them for him.

[Millwood1Hitter]

Is it just me or does Bellinger look exactly like Jordan Schafer out there?

[msstate7]

Lol @ springer. Flipped the bat and started trotting on an inning-ending fly out. Douche

[Enscheff]

Altuve looks like he's way off the plate in his 5th AB, or maybe I just now noticed it.

[jpx7]

Good night for former Braves catchers.