Discussion of Braves 2018 Offseason plans

[Southcack77]

This isn’t complicated. The new park generates more revenue and costs more to operate.

Bottom line is the Braves can’t afford a higher payroll.

The only people who remain confused are the people who insist on clinging to the notion that the new park is going to lead to the Braves significantly increasing payroll. It should be clear beyond all doubt that isn’t the case.

They had a 2017 opening day payroll of $125M+ based on projections of attendance approaching 3M.

They have a 2018 opening day payroll of ~$110M based on attendance projections under 2.5M.

That’s enough data points for us to guesstimate future payrolls within ~$5M.

You have a statement from Liberty subject to SEC regulation that states that after all of the increase in payroll and all of the increased expenses, many of which would be one time expenses, the Braves were significantly more profitable in 2017 than in 2016. Not revenues. Profits.

You are arguing that the Braves have a lower payroll therefore the Braves must be facing financial distress that isn't shown on the books. And to get there you have to make the assumption they aren't paying money that that a lot of people are assuming that they are paying.

Other than the Braves actually seeming to have a reduced payroll from what they had after acquiring Matt Adams, I'm not sure there is really any indication that they are struggling financially.

Liberty might well have set a payroll lower than the Braves revenues would support. Or maybe there is some expected expense or vast decrease in profits that they are anticipating. All of that is without any direct evidence at this point. Would love the beat writers to pursue it.

[Southcack77]

I don't know how much operating expenses really cross-pollinate with construction expenses. There might be some unavoidable overlap there, as it relates to teething, generally, but I would imagine that the additional expense comes as a result of managing the mixed-used property and that's going to remain elevated.

It's possible, but doesn't the article specifically say there was a lot of one time expense in there? I'll look at the Liberty figures later when I get more time.

Any event, the profits were higher after all of these expenses. Profits. Not revenues.

[Enscheff]

You have a statement from Liberty subject to SEC regulation that states that after all of the increase in payroll and all of the increased expenses, many of which would be one time expenses, the Braves were significantly more profitable in 2017 than in 2016. Not revenues. Profits.

You are arguing that the Braves have a lower payroll therefore the Braves must be facing financial distress that isn't shown on the books. And to get there you have to make the assumption they aren't paying money that that a lot of people are assuming that they are paying.

Other than the Braves actually seeming to have a reduced payroll from what they had after acquiring Matt Adams, I'm not sure there is really any indication that they are struggling financially.

Liberty might well have set a payroll lower than the Braves revenues would support. Or maybe there is some expected expense or vast decrease in profits that they are anticipating. All of that is without any direct evidence at this point. Would love the beat writers to pursue it.

LOL, you can't seriously be confused by this...

The Braves lost money in 2016 because they only drew 2M fans. That was their worst attendance figure in decades...literally...decades. It isn't much of a victory to say profits are up after that.

They eeked out a small profit in 2017 with 2.5M in attendance and a $125M+ payroll.

I have stated for months that payroll would go down in 2018 when attendance was projected to be less than 2.5M. Payroll has gone down for 2018 exactly as I predicted.

Yet you're still arguing...unreal haha.

[Enscheff]

It's pretty clear to all but the most dense:

Projected attendance of ~2.75M = opening day payroll of $125M+

Projected attendance of ~2.25M = opening day payroll of ~$110M

If the Braves win 80 games this year and generate some buzz around the young players, they will likely project ~2.5M fans in 2019, and will have an opening day payroll in the $120M+ range.

If the Braves crap the bed again and win 74 games, they will likely project less than 2.5M fans in 2019, and opening day payroll will be in the ~$115M range.

Those are all values that are much higher than payrolls they could sustain at Turner with similar attendance, which corresponds to the fact that the revenue per fan is higher at Suntrust than it was at Turner.

If the Braves want a payroll of $130M+, they will likely need to get close to 3M in attendance.

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

That was a useful summary, appreciated. I might also add “to those not paying attention” as I fall under that category

[Jaw]

I suspect the payroll for the forfeited prospects was deducted from the team payroll for this season, as the forfeiture occurred after all revenue generation for 2017 had ended. I can't imagine Liberty was willing to eat that loss without recouping it as quickly as possible. That would put the payroll number they are using for this year more in line with last year.

[Southcack77]

I suspect the payroll for the forfeited prospects was deducted from the team payroll for this season, as the forfeiture occurred after all revenue generation for 2017 had ended. I can't imagine Liberty was willing to eat that loss without recouping it as quickly as possible. That would put the payroll number they are using for this year more in line with last year.

I do not think that has anything to do with it.

[Freshmaker]

It's pretty clear to all but the most dense:

Projected attendance of ~2.75M = opening day payroll of $125M+

Projected attendance of ~2.25M = opening day payroll of ~$110M

If the Braves win 80 games this year and generate some buzz around the young players, they will likely project ~2.5M fans in 2019, and will have an opening day payroll in the $120M+ range.

If the Braves crap the bed again and win 74 games, they will likely project less than 2.5M fans in 2019, and opening day payroll will be in the ~$115M range.

Those are all values that are much higher than payrolls they could sustain at Turner with similar attendance, which corresponds to the fact that the revenue per fan is higher at Suntrust than it was at Turner.

If the Braves want a payroll of $130M+, they will likely need to get close to 3M in attendance.

The Braves’ revenue increased by $124 million - a 47-percent rise - in 2017, their first year in SunTrust Park, according to financial results released Thursday by team owner Liberty Media.

Liberty Media CEO Greg Maffei described the revenue increase as “astounding,” saying in a news release that it demonstrated “the appeal of the new SunTrust Park and (adjacent mixed-use development) Battery Atlanta.”

https://www.ajc.com/sports/baseball/...EeqLMhJBBXhEL/


Lol

[Freshmaker]

Looks like money isn't the issue - the team is just really ****ing cheap

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

The Braves’ revenue increased by $124 million - a 47-percent rise - in 2017, their first year in SunTrust Park, according to financial results released Thursday by team owner Liberty Media.

Liberty Media CEO Greg Maffei described the revenue increase as “astounding,” saying in a news release that it demonstrated “the appeal of the new SunTrust Park and (adjacent mixed-use development) Battery Atlanta.”

https://www.ajc.com/sports/baseball/...EeqLMhJBBXhEL/


Lol

It’s a fluff piece, you have to semi-ignore positive comments

[Horsehide Harry]

My problem with payroll is that Liberty has been disingenuous from the beginning. It was reported that they made commitments about the payroll when they bought the team something along the lines of not cutting payroll. And by and large they haven't. However a $100M payroll today isn't the same as a $100M payroll 10 years ago in terms of money value, franchise value and changing revenue streams. They are making much more money now than they ever have no matter what they say.

[thethe]

You guys are over thinking this. We are in a much stronger financial position now with stronger growth potential. All the other talk is just noise by those with an agenda. NUmber are numbers. It's all their in the financials.

[nsacpi]

There has only been one front office person who ever said the new stadium would allow us to move back into the top echelon of payrolls. That was John Schuerholz in an interview I believe with Atlanta Business Chronicle. In general there is reason to believe that JS might not have had full command of the facts with respect to a variety of matters in recent years.

The other point I would make is that from a business perspective it is very hard to overcome having a team that is very bad. Attendance is sensitive to extra wins along the entire win curve. 80 wins is better than 70 or 75. And 85 is even better.

I'm the kind of fan who gets significantly more enjoyment from an 80 win team than from a 70 win team. And I suspect there are a lot of fans like me. It doesn't have to be World Series or bust for fans like us. And the reality for the Braves from a fan appeal perspective has been grim. An 80 win team in 2018 would probably allow for some modest increase in payroll in 2019. Winning begets winning. And losing begets losing. In a variety of ways, including via effect on attendance and subsequent payrolls.

[Southcack77]

There has only been one front office person who ever said the new stadium would allow us to move back into the top echelon of payrolls. That was John Schuerholz in an interview I believe with Atlanta Business Chronicle. In general there is reason to believe that JS might not have had full command of the facts with respect to a variety of matters in recent years.

The other point I would make is that from a business perspective it is very hard to overcome having a team that is very bad. Attendance is sensitive to extra wins along the entire win curve. 80 wins is better than 70 or 75. And 85 is even better.

I'm the kind of fan who gets significantly more enjoyment from an 80 win team than from a 70 win team. And I suspect there are a lot of fans like me. It doesn't have to be World Series or bust for fans like us. And the reality for the Braves from a fan appeal perspective has been grim. An 80 win team in 2018 would probably allow for some modest increase in payroll in 2019. Winning begets winning. And losing begets losing. In a variety of ways, including via effect on attendance and subsequent payrolls.

To be honest, I don't think I've ever seen anyone from the organization state on their own that that the stadium would make them a top payroll team.

The only comments I have seen were in response to direct questions related to the effectiveness of the stadium and the public outlay of money on payroll and I think the responses were more along the lines of we certainly hope so or something like that.

Everything that is said publicly, particularly when left to be answered off the cuff about a sensitive subject isn't necessarily to be taken seriously.

....

I think the bottom line is this: the stadium makes the team more money. The team was more profitable as a result of the stadium. Payroll should ultimately be greater than it was at Turner Field as a result, but we have no idea how Liberty determines the Braves budget. We can drag numbers and theories out of our asses, but a lot of this is a dark box until someone corners the company to speak on it.

[Enscheff]

You guys are over thinking this. We are in a much stronger financial position now with stronger growth potential. All the other talk is just noise by those with an agenda. NUmber are numbers. It's all their in the financials.

Here's the number that matters: $107M.

That's the Braves opening day payroll, which is markedly lower than it was in 2017.

No matter what other faux accounting any of you want to do, that's the payroll, and it went down...a lot...as predicted.

But by all means, continue to argue with me haha.

[thethe]

Here's the number that matters: $107M.

That's the Braves opening day payroll, which is markedly lower than it was in 2017.

No matter what other faux accounting any of you want to do, that's the payroll, and it went down...a lot...as predicted.

But by all means, continue to argue with me haha.

Not even sure what you mean by faux accounting. This is real accounting. Obviously the profits have not transferred into payroll yet. That wasn't the claim I was making in the post you quoted.

[Enscheff]

Not even sure what you mean by faux accounting. This is real accounting. Obviously the profits have not transferred into payroll yet. That wasn't the claim I was making in the post you quoted.

The point is we know the approximate link between attendance and payroll for the Braves now.

I'm sure folks will still continue to argue about payroll numbers whenever it's time to rosterbate about signing Machado though.

[thethe]

The point is we know the approximate link between attendance and payroll for the Braves now.

I'm sure folks will still continue to argue about payroll numbers whenever it's time to rosterbate about signing Machado though.

No we don't know that. You are making the assumption on that. Correlation is not causation. I'm sure attendance is a factor but I'd imaging there is much more included.

[Enscheff]

No we don't know that. You are making the assumption on that. Correlation is not causation. I'm sure attendance is a factor but I'd imaging there is much more included.

Of course you do, and that means we'll be hearing you babble about the Braves having a $150M payroll in 2019 with room to sign Machado.

Then you'll be wrong...again. You will never learn.

[Southcack77]

The point is we know the approximate link between attendance and payroll for the Braves now.

I'm sure folks will still continue to argue about payroll numbers whenever it's time to rosterbate about signing Machado though.

We absolutely do not know that.