Implications of the Trade

[nsacpi]

Is it a guarantee Greinke gets 8 years?
Greinke at $25MM would at least be worth it for a few years. Heyward's defense-driven game is not worth $25MM.

I'm not in a position to guarantee Greinke will get 8 years. Just asking a hypothetical question.

[nsacpi]

I would not be surprised if Heyward is the top paid free agent this off-season, both in terms of AAV and total dollars.

[yeezus]

To what "degree" is Heyward's offense being criticized? Saying his bat isn't worth $25 mil isn't really criticism.

[yeezus]

Heyward's defense is overvalued by WAR, IMO, so the "worth x amount of wins" argument doesn't work.

[yeezus]

I'm not in a position to guarantee Greinke will get 8 years. Just asking a hypothetical question.

I think the current Greinke is worth $25MM where as the current Heyward is not.

[thethe]

Heyward has been worth about 18 wins since 2012. Price has been worth 19.4 and Greinke has been worth 16.7.

That might prove me wrong in your eyes but i still feel that doesn't prove anything

[nsacpi]

To what "degree" is Heyward's offense being criticized? Saying his bat isn't worth $25 mil isn't really criticism.

Unless you're David Ortiz or a player like that, you also get paid for parts of your game besides your bat. Look at Jacoby Ellsbury for example.

[Tapate50]

You just say stuff you make yourself feel better.

Just to put some facts on paper:

Players peak about 27 years old
Bigger players regress at pretty much the same rate as smaller players
Bad defensive players regress much worse than good defensive players. (ie good defensive player becomes better all around players than good offensive players; the axis is about age 32)
High strikeout players have a much smoother aging curve than low strikeout players (high strikeout guys peak a year earlier, but don't hit the skids as bad as low strikeout guys)

In other words, there is no data to suggest Heyward is going to regress any more than other players in their 30s (Heyward is still years away from being at an age where you would expect regression)

Heyward is not an impact bat, but the degree to which the Braves homers try to act like he's at offensively is ludicrous. Since 2012, Heyward is at .270/.345/.432, which is on par with Cespedes, who is about to get paid as well. And in terms of WAR, he's been the 4th best OF in baseball during that time. (you could argue defense is weighed too heavily, but he's still up there nonetheless)

Do people criticize Alex Gordon's lack of offense to this degree? THey are virtually the same player.

Is 25M being tossed around for him?

[gilesfan]

That might prove me wrong in your eyes but i still feel that doesn't prove anything

Well, you have a pretty weak argument then if that's the guns you are sticking to.

[yeezus]

Unless you're David Ortiz or a player like that, you also get paid for parts of your game besides your bat.

Oh really???
Obviously. Heyward's defense-driven game is not worth $25MM. I feel unless you're a middle-of-the-order bat or an ace, you're not worth that.

Heyward is not in Stanton's class, despite what WAR says.

[thethe]

Is 25M being tossed around for him?

Just about to post that.

[yeezus]

That might prove me wrong in your eyes but i still feel that doesn't prove anything

it proves defense is overvalued. Heyward's WAR says he's an elite player. Come on.

[thethe]

Well, you have a pretty weak argument then if that's the guns you are sticking to.

The most frustrating thing about the Saber metric movement is that good old fashion sports arguments don't exist. Everything is a "well actually "

[nsacpi]

Heyward's defense is overvalued by WAR, IMO, so the "worth x amount of wins" argument doesn't work.

I think that's a reasonable point. But I think even if you apply a 10-20% haircut to the defensive part of Jason's value, you end up with a player who is near or at the top of this year's free agent crop. Especially when you consider his age and other variables that help you predict how a player will age.

[thethe]

I think that's a reasonable point. But I think even if you apply a 10-20% haircut to the defensive part of Jason's value, you end up with a player who is near or at the top of this year's free agent crop.

I would agree he is one of the better if not best position player available.

[nsacpi]

Obviously. Heyward's defense-driven game is not worth $25MM.

We'll have an answer soon enough.

[gilesfan]

Is 25M being tossed around for him?

I've read 5/100 as a rough gauge for Gordon, but he will be 32 while Heyward will be 26. Heyward is 1 or 1a in terms of 2016 position player free agents.

What type of contract do you think Cespedes gets? He's on par with Heyward offensively, much worse defensively, and 30 years old.

[nsacpi]

I would agree he is one of the better if not best position player available.

He will definitely be paid more than any position player. And considering their ages, I think he will definitely get paid more than Greinke (both AAV and total dollars) and probably more than Price. I know I would rather have him than Price for the same contract.

[Tapate50]

I would agree he is one of the better if not best position player available.

in a historically bad year for them.

I have come full circle on Heyward, but he is not a impact bat as much as this team needs. I feel like a better bat with less D would cure more of what ails us, but that option isn't really out there this year. So, we are stuck improving however we can. I do feel like his youth helps a lot, but 25M is crazy money.

[gilesfan]

The most frustrating thing about the Saber metric movement is that good old fashion sports arguments don't exist. Everything is a "well actually "

Well, because arguments that stay so and so is true because I said so without basis makes a lot of sense?