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Thread: System Depth: Middle Infield

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    System Depth: Middle Infield

    Over the next few days I'm going to take a look at depth within our system on a position by position basis. I'll kick things off with middle infield. Mostly, I'll focus on what's on the farm, but will include players we have under contractual control for five or more years at the major league level. I'm going to classify the players into three categories. Those I think are likely major league starting material, bench players, and fringe guys.

    Starters: Simmons and Peraza. Simmons obviously is already a very good player in the majors. We will have him under control for five more years after this season. My guess is he is going to be our shortstop for a very long time. Jose Peraza is arguably our best position prospect. He's made 29 errors in Rome this year. But errors can be misleading for young players. Peraza is generally considered to have the tools to stick at short. But with Simmons there his future is probably at second. Estimated major league arrival time: 2016-17. He is also an excellent base stealer (61 steals, 15 CS this year) and has a decent eye at the plate, which means he could be our leadoff hitter of the future as well.

    Bench Players: Pastornicky, La Stella, Camargo, Castro I think these four project as infield reserves, whether with us or some other major league team. I'd be happy to hold on to both Pastornicky and La Stella, but I think ultimately Pastornicky will prove to be the more valuable player. He's a year younger, has more speed, more positional versatility and is more athletic. La Stella basically is a very good singles hitter, with a very low strikeout rate. Camargo played mostly short this year in Danville, but I suspect he will not be able to stick there as he moves up the system. He's probably not going to be much more than a singles hitter. Maybe a slightly better version of Diory Hernandez. Daniel Castro is a 20 year old we brought in from the Mexican League who held his own in Lynchburg. He was once in our system in the DSL. It is impressive that he held his own in a league where he was one of the younger players. At this point shows very little power, and does not project to develop much.

    Fringe: Reyes, Reynolds, Harper. Reyes boosted his prospect stock this year with an excellent season in Lynchburg at age 22. He's athletic and has a good enough glove to stick at short. Has very little power and I suspect some of his improvement this year was a BABIP illusion. I'm curious to see how he does in the AFL. Reynolds and Harper were drafted as college seniors and played against younger players in Danville and the GCL respectively. They did well, but we need to see them in a full-season league before drawing any conclusions. Even if they continue to hit, they are more likely to play at second or third than short as they move up the system.

    Conclusion: The long-term future at second and short is pretty clear. Peraza and Simmons. The cloudy part is the transition period between Uggla and Peraza. Will Uggla stick around the last two years of his contract? Will he be eased out in favor of Pastornicky or La Stella or the currently injured Ramiro Pena? Will the team explore an external option? These things are on the table. My guess is that in 2014-2015 we will have an increasingly competitive position sharing sort of arrangement at second between Uggla, Pastornicky, Pena and La Stella.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 08-31-2013 at 10:00 AM.

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    Great write-up! I know 3rd base is a corner IF spot and not MI, but prospects move around a lot between 3rd, 2nd, and SS. Any of these guys a fix for future 3B openings? You'll probably do a corner IF post, but just wondering. If you do one, I think we're set at 1B lol

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    Quote Originally Posted by goosecreekbrave View Post
    Great write-up! I know 3rd base is a corner IF spot and not MI, but prospects move around a lot between 3rd, 2nd, and SS. Any of these guys a fix for future 3B openings? You'll probably do a corner IF post, but just wondering. If you do one, I think we're set at 1B lol
    Middle infielders can usually handle third fine. Think of Martin Prado for example. So it is certainly possible that the players I discussed above could be part of the long-term solution at third. One scenario that comes to mind is this: suppose La Stella settles into second at the major league level. My guess is that they would then consider playing Peraza (who has a better arm than La Stella) at third. He would bring a combination of speed and on base skills unusual for third, but it would not be the first time that happened.

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    I think your opinion on La Stella is way off. He has very good gap power and terrific plate discipline. Much more than just a singles hitter. He looks like he has more of a future with the major league club than Peraza at this point. Would not surprise me to see us trade Uggla this winter and go with Pastor and La Stella at 2b next yr.

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    La Stella ISO in AA this year: .135.

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    And? Never said he was going to hit a lot of homers, but no reason he couldn't knock 40+ doubles a yr. Combine that with his ability to hit for average, whil taking a lot of walks, and rarely striking out, and it's much more than just a back-up type of player.

    He looks much more like a he'll be useful major league hitter than Peraza anyways.

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    La Stella has an ISO at age 24 in AA that is similar to someone like Omar Infante in the majors. I'd be very happy to get Omar Infante type production from my second baseman. But the question is whether what La Stella is doing at age 24 in AA projects to something similar in the majors. A conservative adjustment would be to reduce any player's offensive output in AA by about 20% when projecting to the majors. Now that is an average. Some will do better, some worse. The question is what is a reasonable projection for a 24 year old player in AA. I think it would be substantially below what Omar Infante is doing in the majors. And then there is the question of defense. By all reports, La Stella is well below Infante as a defender. I'm rooting for him, as I root for all Braves prospects, but I try not to wear rose tinted glasses when making evaluations. He's had a terrific season in AA. No doubt about that.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 09-01-2013 at 09:16 AM.

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    Players that walk more then the strikeout are always worth giving a long look at. I would be interested to know what his ld% is. And it's not just his year at AA. He's been great in pro ball the entire time.

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    More walks than strikeouts is a good thing. But it doesn't equate to being a great hitter. Mark Lemke had more walks than strikeouts in his major league career and in his minor league career. Lemke is a very interesting comparison to ponder. He showed more power than La Stella in his minor league career. Yes you read that right. More power. Lemke had minor league seasons of 18, 20 and 16 home runs, the last one as a 22 year old in AA. La Stella has 4 home runs this year as a 24 year old in AA.

    While I'm on the subject of Braves second basemen of the past, Jeff Treadway is another good comparison. He had a season in AAA as a 23 year old that was quite similar to the year La Stella is having this year. But do note that he was a level higher at one year younger. Treadway also walked more than he struck out while in the minors.

    I would be happy if La Stella turned into a Treadway. I don't think he will be another Lemke because so much of the Lemmer's value was in his glove.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 09-01-2013 at 10:10 AM.

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    I was all aboard the LaStella bandwagon but the fact teh Braves did not call him up when Uggla went down changed my mind. He is not ready and with the lack of power I don't think he will be an everyday player. He will fit on this team because they won't need much production from second base but I agree with nsacpi.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I was all aboard the LaStella bandwagon but the fact teh Braves did not call him up when Uggla went down changed my mind. He is not ready and with the lack of power I don't think he will be an everyday player. He will fit on this team because they won't need much production from second base but I agree with nsacpi.
    I'm concerned about you agreeing with me. Did someone break into your house and walk away with the rose tinted glasses?

    ;)

    Seriously though, I could see La Stella getting a lot of playing time in a platoon with Pastornicky. Both of them have the conventional splits that would argue for such an arrangement. We are going to have to go cheap at three or four positions and second could be one of them. In some ways, there is going to be a competition of sorts within positions but also between positions. Do we go cheap with La Stella/Pastornicky at second, or Salcedo/Kubitza/Caratini at third or Cunningham/Lipka/Wren in center. It will happen, but the particular positions where it happens depends on how these guys develop and also how easily the current incumbents at those positions can be moved. The fact that Peraza can potentially play second, center or third will give us some interesting choices to make.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 09-01-2013 at 10:20 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    La Stella has an ISO at age 24 in AA that is similar to someone like Omar Infante in the majors. I'd be very happy to get Omar Infante type production from my second baseman. But the question is whether what La Stella is doing at age 24 in AA projects to something similar in the majors. A conservative adjustment would be to reduce any player's offensive output in AA by about 20% when projecting to the majors. Now that is an average. Some will do better, some worse. The question is what is a reasonable projection for a 24 year old player in AA. I think it would be substantially below what Omar Infante is doing in the majors. And then there is the question of defense. By all reports, La Stella is well below Infante as a defender. I'm rooting for him, as I root for all Braves prospects, but I try not to wear rose tinted glasses when making evaluations. He's had a terrific season in AA. No doubt about that.
    But his career minor isoSLG is .171. That's higher than Matt Carpenter's career iso and Dustin Pedroia's career iso.

    Not saying that La Stella is going to be as good as these guys, but he's much more talented of a hitter than you are giving him credit for.

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    Connoisseur of Minors zitothebrave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    La Stella ISO in AA this year: .135.
    Would you call Chris Johnson a singles hitter? He has an iso of .138 this year.

    No one expects LaStella to be a world beater otherwise he would be a top 10 prospect. But you cannot deny that this kid has never stopped hitting.

    The focus on his age isn't too fair either he has 3 years of professional experience. Was Utley lesser of a player because he didn't make his major league debut until 24? Prado's minor league iso was aroudn .1, no one would say he's a singles hitter.

    I think your assessment on La Stella is unfair, as is thethe's "they didn't bring him up when Uggla was gonna miss 15 days" theory. Maybe the Braves didn't want to bring him up because it was only gonna be for 15 games and getting reps in AA would be better for his advancement.

    All I know about La Stella is that for his career he's hit .326, every scouting report on him talks about how easily he sprays the ball from gap to gap, and his career K% is an impressively low 8.7% while his BB% is an impressively good 11.2% FWIW if he brought those numbers to the majors he would be 3rd amongst starters (well second since he'd be replacing Uggla) and a close second to Simmons in K% (Current second is Heyward at 16.5%)

    Basically imagine if Simmons offensively walked way more, and hit more linedrives and that's what La Stella is.

    Until Tommy stops hitting I'll assume he has a gift for hitting. My only concern with him is health. Defense I've read a mixed bag of reviews, some don't like it some think it's solid. I really think he's gonna be our next Prado but maybe better of a hitter but lesser of a defender.
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    Quote Originally Posted by zitothebrave View Post
    Would you call Chris Johnson a singles hitter? He has an iso of .138 this year.

    What kind of major league ISO would you project for a 24 year old putting up an ISO of .135 in AA?

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I was all aboard the LaStella bandwagon but the fact teh Braves did not call him up when Uggla went down changed my mind. He is not ready and with the lack of power I don't think he will be an everyday player. He will fit on this team because they won't need much production from second base but I agree with nsacpi.
    La Stella wasn't called up and likely won't be called up this yr primarily b/c he isn't on the 40 man roster and b/c he hasn't played above AA. Has nothing to do with lack of power or defensive abilities.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zitothebrave View Post
    I really think he's gonna be our next Prado but maybe better of a hitter but lesser of a defender.
    Prado has a career OPS of .783.

    I expect La Stella to be in the .700-.750 range in the majors. A bit higher against righties. Omar Infante is a .720 OPS career hitter. I see La Stella as similar in terms of hitting, but obviously not in the same class as a defender.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    La Stella wasn't called up and likely won't be called up this yr primarily b/c he isn't on the 40 man roster and b/c he hasn't played above AA. Has nothing to do with lack of power or defensive abilities.
    It is a mix of reasons. It is worth noting than none of Terdoslavich, Cunningham and Gosselin were on the 40-man when the decision was made to call them up. Gosselin had a limited number of AAA at bats at the time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    What kind of major league ISO would you project for a 24 year old putting up an ISO of .135 in AA?
    You're using a sample size of 1 season though (honestly more like a half a season). Why not use his career numbers if we're trying to project players?

    Dustin Pedroia posted a .130 iso his last full yr in the minors, which was significantly lower than his career numbers at the time.

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    Connoisseur of Minors zitothebrave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    What kind of major league ISO would you project for a 24 year old putting up an ISO of .135 in AA?
    Probably around .150-.170

    Considering as a 23 year old in AAA Prado had an iso of .105 (and as a 24 in AA as well though that was a rehab assignment, just wanted to point out the uncanny same iso in a SSS) I don't think repeating the same iso in the majors is out of the question. Generally you have more power in the majors than the minors because you're playing your most physically mature seasons in the majors where your body isn't changing much same is true with guys who make old debuts. Some examples

    Ryan Howard major league iso .274 minor league iso .250. Jason Bay major league iso .215 minor league iso .185 Chase Utley major league iso .212 minor league .182, Jayson Werth Major League iso .196 minor league iso .160, Dan Uggla major league iso .214 minor league .167

    Any small amount of research would tell you that generally guys get more power in the majors than in the minors. Sure there are some cases otherwise but La Stella is showing very positive numbers where regression is most likely (BB% and K%) and has a decent but not amazing iso.

    If he got to majors and say had a 10% K% 10% BB% and .150 iso that's a pretty similar numbers to the career averages Pedroia. Obviously Pedroia is a MUCH better defender, but Pedroia also wasn't too highly thought of as a prospect. Never cracking the BA top 100. if La Stella could hit like Pedroia and be acceptable with the glove he'd be an excellent value player.
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    Connoisseur of Minors zitothebrave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Prado has a career OPS of .783.

    I expect La Stella to be in the .700-.750 range in the majors. A bit higher against righties. Omar Infante is a .720 OPS career hitter. I see La Stella as similar in terms of hitting, but obviously not in the same class as a defender.
    Infante had a minor league iso of .067

    Come on make a serious comparison.
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