Originally Posted by
Enscheff
There may have been some long term value to be gained by putting a better team on the field this season and enjoying an increase in attendance, and there were certainly moves that could have been made to make that happen. Trading for Ozuna and signing Frazier would have made the Braves a pretty clear playoff contender.
Instead, they decided to spend the bulk of their available payroll to unload Kemp, and they will likely see an attendance dip down to what they drew in the last 3 seasons at Turner (though I don't think it goes all the way down to 2 million, probably around 2.3 million), rather than a bump up to the ~2.8 million range. That's a swing in attendance of ~500k, which is what?...$50M in revenue?
Now they will be lucky to project 2.5 million in 2019, and payroll for THAT season will also suffer as a result.
Projections:
2018 - 2.3 million fans, $110M-$120M payroll, team should finish with around 80 wins, excitement grows for 2019
2019 - 2.5 million fans, $120M-$130M payroll (same as 2017), team should make a WC run, excitement grows for 2020
2020 - 2.5+ million fans, $130M+ payroll, team should make playoff appearance, excitement grows for 2021
2021 - 2.8 million fans, $140M+ payroll, team should be in the middle of their contention window, excitement has plateaued
2022+ - 2.5 million fans, $130M-$140M payroll, attendance drops in Atlanta even when the team is good, fans yawn
At no point will those payrolls be able to crack the Top 10 as sold to the fans when the new park opened. In fact, by then, they will still be below MLB average.