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Thread: Looking at the "Big Trades"

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    Looking at the "Big Trades"

    A different thread was hijacked, so I'll start a new thread.

    Let's look at the "big trades" and the "headliners" in those trade to see how they're looking... I'm going to analyze the contract we gave up vs what we got back and make estimations on WAR. this is all subjective and would welcome other analysis. This is retrospective and estimated future value, and is just for fun! Also - I'm not factoring in contract costs - just production, so this is not perfect.

    1. Heyward (1 year) for Miller (4 years)

    - Heyward produced 6 WAR in his 1 year

    - Miller produced 3.9 WAR in the first 2 years... and I'm estimating 1 WAR in the next 2 years. for a total of 5.9 WAR.

    Verdict: Gave up 6 WAR in 1 year for 5.9 WAR in 4 years. This is a resounding loss... as the 6 WAR 1 season is much more valuable than 5.9 WAR spread out over 4 years

    Upton (1) for Fried (6)

    - Upton produced 3.5 WAR in his 1 year

    - Fried has yet to pitch... though I predict he will produce at least 4 WAR over his 6 years. I also will consider that we got decent value out of other pieces in this trade

    Verdict: Slight win for Braves, with potential to be win depending on Fried and Gohara.

    Gattis (4) for Folty (6)

    - Gattis has produced 2.8 WAR over last 2 years... And I predict he produces another 3 WAR under his contract... for a total of 5.8 WAR given up

    - Folty has produced 1.2 WAR over last 2 years... and I predict he produces another 8 WAR over his contract... for a total of 9.2 WAR

    Verdict - nice win for Braves

    Kimbrel (4) for Wisler (6)

    - Kimbrel has produced 2.7 WAR over last 2 years, and I predict he produces another 3 WAR over next two for a total of 5.7 WAR

    - Wisler has produced 0.6 WAR over last 2 years, and I predict he produces 1.5 WAR over next 4 years for a tidal of 2.1 WAR

    Verdict - bad loss for Braves

    Simmons (5) for Newcomb (6)

    - Simmons has produced 3.1 WAR over last year, and I predict he produces 9 WAR over next 4 years, for a total of 12.1 WAR

    - Newcomb has not yet pitched, and I predict and he produces 4 WAR over his 6 seasons

    Verdict - Bad loss for Braves

    Alex Wood (3.5) & Jose Peraza (6) for Hector Olivera (6)

    - Wood has produced 2.3 WAR since the trade, and I predict he produces 2 WAR over next 2 years, for a total of 4.3 WAR. Peraza has produced 0.7 War over last year, and I predict he produces 7.5 WAR over next 5 years... for a combined total of 8.3 WAR... for a combined trade total of 12.6 WAR

    - Olivera produced -0.2 WAR since trade, and I predict he produces 0 additional WAR, for a total of -0.2 WAR

    Verdict - Disaster for Braves

    Miller (3) for Swanson (6), Inciarte (5), & Blair (6)

    - Miller has produced 0.5 WAR since the trade, and I predict he produces 1 additionl War over next 2 years for a total of 1.5 WAR

    - Swanson has produced 0.8 WAR since the trade, and I predict he produces 16 WAR over next 6 seasons, for a total of 16.8 WAR;
    Inciarte has produced 3.6 WAR since the trade, and I predict he produces 14 WAR over next 4 seasons, for a total of 17.6 WAR;
    Aaron Blair has produced -0.6 WAR since trade, and I predict he produces 4 WAR over next 5 seasons, for a total of 3.4 WAR;
    for a grand total 37.8 WAR

    Verdict - slam dunk for Braves










    So let's add it all up... amongst the headliners of the big trades, the Braves traded:

    The Braves traded 27.5 years of control and an estimated 47.2 WAR (1.7 WAR per season)

    in exchange for

    51 years of control and an estimated 62.8 WAR (1.2 WAR per season)

    If we take out the Swanson trade, it's ugly:
    - The braves traded 24.5 years and a estimated 45.7 WAR (1.9 WAR per season)

    in exchange for 34 years of control and an estimated 35 WAR (0.7 WAR per season)


    Or in other words, thanks God for Dave Stewart

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    Not all total WAR counts are created equal. Unless you think the Braves were a contender in 2015, then it wouldn't really matter how well Heyward or Upton would have done for them. The Heyward trade strikes me as a win-win for both teams involved. The Cardinals got an excellent season out of their acquisition of Heyward, and the Braves got a good season from Miller, then parlayed that success combined with the remaining control for a bounty. I was no fan of the deal at the time, but in hindsight I don't see how you can say that the Braves did poorly in the Heyward deal.

    As for Simmons and Kimbrel, I agree with the fact that the prospects we got in return have underwhelmed so far, but if we're going to judge a trade for prospects based on big league success, let's at least wait until the dust settles.

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    That Miller/Swanson trade may go down as one of the more lopsided deals in the history of MLB. Trading 3 years / 1.5 WAR (0.5 WAR per seasons) in exchange for 15 years / 37.5 WAR (2.5 WAR per season) is a staggering beat.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mqt View Post
    Not all total WAR counts are created equal. Unless you think the Braves were a contender in 2015, then it wouldn't really matter how well Heyward or Upton would have done for them. The Heyward trade strikes me as a win-win for both teams involved. The Cardinals got an excellent season out of their acquisition of Heyward, and the Braves got a good season from Miller, then parlayed that success combined with the remaining control for a bounty. I was no fan of the deal at the time, but in hindsight I don't see how you can say that the Braves did poorly in the Heyward deal.

    As for Simmons and Kimbrel, I agree with the fact that the prospects we got in return have underwhelmed so far, but if we're going to judge a trade for prospects based on big league success, let's at least wait until the dust settles.
    I probably won't have the will to do this 6 years from now

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    the value of the draft choices associated with Heyward and Justin Upton hitting free agency should be part of the accounting

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    We didn't trade Kimbrel straight up for Wisler, and we also got Wentz in the Olivera trade.

    The Kimbrel trade brought us Wisler, Riley, a player we used to increase the international pool to allow us to get both Cruz and Pache, and savings that we probably used in several ways, most notably to get Touki.

    This is in no way a complete picture and includes arbitrary estimates on a bunch of guys with little or no MLB time yet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    the value of the draft choices associated with Heyward and Justin Upton hitting free agency should be part of the accounting
    then you also have to add in the draft picks in the HO/Upton deals.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    The Kimbrel trade brought us Wisler, Riley, a player we used to increase the international pool to allow us to get both Cruz and Pache, and savings that we probably used in several ways, most notably to get Touki.
    So we did this trade...

    Kimbrell / Melvin for Wisler, Riley, Cruz, Pache, Touki

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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post

    1. Heyward (1 year) for Miller (4 years)

    - Heyward produced 6 WAR in his 1 year

    - Miller produced 3.9 WAR in the first 2 years... and I'm estimating 1 WAR in the next 2 years. for a total of 5.9 WAR.

    Verdict: Gave up 6 WAR in 1 year for 5.9 WAR in 4 years. This is a resounding loss... as the 6 WAR 1 season is much more valuable than 5.9 WAR spread out over 4 years
    Totally get your numbers here -- but for a rebuilding team what good was Heyward for one last year, part of the appeal for Miller was getting him for four years where you can either build around him or deal him latter for more assets. We also got Tyrell Jenkins who has been flipped for Luke Jackson - a guy with the arm talent to be a pretty good reliever.

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    BTW -- what sense does it make to just look at the 'headliners' and ignore every other piece in the deals?

    Fried may have been the 'headliner' in the Upton deal, but you can't actually evaluate that deal without including Jace, Dustin and Mallex -- those weren't inconsequential throw ins. Dustin Peterson is a top-20 prospect for us, Mallex was flipped for Gohara who is a borderline top-100 prospect in baseball and Jace can be a utility guy at the MLB level. That deal looks potentially great when you fully evaluate it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Preacher View Post
    Totally get your numbers here -- but for a rebuilding team what good was Heyward for one last year, part of the appeal for Miller was getting him for four years where you can either build around him or deal him latter for more assets. We also got Tyrell Jenkins who has been flipped for Luke Jackson - a guy with the arm talent to be a pretty good reliever.
    I don't really get the sense of an evaluation of the Hayward for Miller trade that only considers one year of Miller for Atlanta in its measurement.

    The Braves didn't trade for one year of Miller and obviously they converted their remaining control into other assets.

    Not criticizing the post though. Just can't quite fathom the conclusion that Hayward trade was a failure based on one season for each player.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Preacher View Post
    then you also have to add in the draft picks in the HO/Upton deals.
    of course...those picks have significant expected value

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    So many moves are so interconnected that it's really hard to break them down. Touki is a good example. Without clearing salary we don't have the room to take on Arroyo and get him.

    Also, predicting the young arms is really difficult. If Newcomb or Fried explode and become an ace then it completely changes the dynamic. Conversely, if they fail completely a trade can become a disaster.

    Honestly, the grade that has to be given to a lot of these moves is "Incomplete". We just don't know how they're going to turn out yet. But with any rebuild like we had to go through, you're going to make trades that blow up because the prospects you get back tank. You just have to hope that you build up enough of a stable of young talent to graduate enough to get you back into contention.

    One thing that is certain is that keeping guys like Heyward who we weren't going to be able to re-sign and getting that one year of production out of them in a year we weren't going to compete was a dead end.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mqt View Post
    Not all total WAR counts are created equal. Unless you think the Braves were a contender in 2015, then it wouldn't really matter how well Heyward or Upton would have done for them.
    This is an interesting issue. Suppose I own a vacation house on the beach and only plan on using it in August. Should I rent it for peanuts in July and say I got good value? I don't think so.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    This is an interesting issue. Suppose I own a vacation house on the beach and only plan on using it in August. Should I rent it for peanuts in July and say I got good value? I don't think so.
    If your best offer in July is peanuts and you're not using it anyway then you probably should rent it for peanuts.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesguy View Post
    So we did this trade...

    Kimbrell / Melvin for Wisler, Riley, Cruz, Pache, Touki
    You could argue it was Kimbrel/Melvin for Wisler, Riley, and Touki, sure. You can't consider Cruz and/or Pache to have come directly from the deal, but Paroubeck allowed us flexibility to add the money necessary to sign both of them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    If your best offer in July is peanuts and you're not using it anyway then you probably should rent it for peanuts.
    I'm talking about a vacation rental in an area with an efficient and well-functioning market for rentals. Not one in some obscure place that only a few people go to.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    This is an interesting issue. Suppose I own a vacation house on the beach and only plan on using it in August. Should I rent it for peanuts in July and say I got good value? I don't think so.
    Do you have financial trouble and are likely losing the house for a fraction of its value the next year? Then it probably makes sense to get something for it in July.... some value is better than no value.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Preacher View Post
    Do you have financial trouble and are likely losing the house for a fraction of its value the next year? Then it probably makes sense to get something for it in July.... some value is better than no value.

    As I said it is an area with a deep and well-functioning market for rentals. And I know in December of the prior year that I'm going to be renting it in July. So I am not in a desperate situation. Far from it. I have big plans to vacation in July at another even more posh location.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 04-19-2017 at 08:19 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I'm talking about a vacation rental in an area with an efficient and well-functioning market for rentals. Not one in some obscure place that only a few people go to.
    The problem here is that none of us know what other options were on the table for a lot of these deals. There is the belief that we might have been able to do better but who knows? Maybe the market is well-functioning but there is the belief in that market that our rental property has bedbugs. Maybe the view of what we were selling wasn't generally positive so we got the best deals we could. Maybe not. Hard to say.

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