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Thread: The inevitable Inciarte trade

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I have my doubts Pache can be a ~3 war player right now. Also every team will have the same concerns on Ender that others are expressing right now. He's a step slower away from being a 4th OF.
    yeah there's no chance pache would put up 3 WAR. i don't think he'd even sniff 2 WAR. he may not even get 1. his offense would be brutal right now.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    yeah there's no chance pache would put up 3 WAR. i don't think he'd even sniff 2 WAR. he may not even get 1. his offense would be brutal right now.
    I wouldn’t be shocked if Pache was close to as good as Ender. But why replace something you have with the exact same model and start his clock and stunt his development. Doesn’t make sense when Ender is still a positive player.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I have my doubts Pache can be a ~3 war player right now. Also every team will have the same concerns on Ender that others are expressing right now. He's a step slower away from being a 4th OF.
    Yeah. I'm high on Pache but he likely won't be ready for a year or year and a half. He still needs to marinate in the high minors. Not everyone can zip through the minors at warp speed like Acuna and arrive in the majors without missing a beat.
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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    I wouldn’t be shocked if Pache was close to as good as Ender. But why replace something you have with the exact same model and start his clock and stunt his development. Doesn’t make sense when Ender is still a positive player.
    i would be absolutely shocked if pache could put up a 3 WAR season. there's probably a lower than 1% chance of that right now.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Yeah. I'm high on Pache but he likely won't be ready for a year or year and a half. He still needs to marinate in the high minors. Not everyone can zip through the minors at warp speed like Acuna and arrive in the majors without missing a beat.
    i'd argue acuña missed a beat. but then quickly caught up to it...and then made it his own beat in a stunningly short amount of time.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    i'd argue acuña missed a beat. but then quickly caught up to it...and then made it his own beat in a stunningly short amount of time.
    Acuna didn't miss a beat. He was just pouting.
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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Where did I say "he'll be worth a lot to some other team"?

    The OP asked "When do we pull the trigger on a deal?" and "What should we be expecting in return?". Both are legitimate questions - particularly if you subscribe to the "Ender isn't adding much value to this team" mantra.

    If he's easily replaceable from within, shouldn't he be traded for whatever AA can get for him BEFORE what skills he brings to the table begin to decline?

    I have no qualms admitting I wasn't interested in trading Julio when he was cheap because the young arms were far from ready, not to mention the fact I've always been a fan - even if he never reached the lofty ceiling we all hoped he would. Why is this situation different? If you believe Ender's useless other than the defense he provides, isn't holding onto him to be a 4th OF (potentially as early as 2020) as his salary increases as counterproductive as having Julio making the money he makes while being in the way now?
    For one, it's unlikely Pache or anyone else is able to be a 2-3 WAR player right now or likely even next season.

    Secondly, if we have concerns about Ender declining, so will every other team. So the ability to trade Ender becomes pretty hard, as no one wants to pay 10 million for a 4th OFer.

    Your entire argument is a contradiction.

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    man a 3 WAR CF is "easily replaceable"? amazing.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

    “I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Also every team will have the same concerns on Ender that others are expressing right now. He's a step slower away from being a 4th OF.
    This is exactly why I was not very excited when they extended him, despite folks saying it made him "even more valuable." I'd have preferred that they didn't extend him and let him hit FA as scheduled.

    I do think if he recovers to past level of offense and his defense holds then he still can be traded this offseason or at the deadline if the Braves fall out. I don't really see much chance the Braves would move him in season, because he has present value. Unless it was part of a bigger move.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    man a 3 WAR CF is "easily replaceable"? amazing.

    3 wins requires someone like Pache to be a 10% below average hitter. That's harder than it sounds, but it's not impossible.

    Also, the Braves have Acuna as a possibility in CF, which opens up all the options as far as FA and trade. It would be a redeployment of resources and perhaps there are many stopgaps that would let you get to the next guy without taking on the advancing decline of a below average hitter whose value is mostly his first steps.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    3 wins requires someone like Pache to be a 10% below average hitter. That's harder than it sounds, but it's not impossible.

    Also, the Braves have Acuna as a possibility in CF, which opens up all the options as far as FA and trade. It would be a redeployment of resources and perhaps there are many stopgaps that would let you get to the next guy without taking on the advancing decline of a below average hitter whose value is mostly his first steps.
    of course it's not impossible. it's just extremely, overwhelmingly unlikely. he wasn't even close to that.. in AA last year.
    if you move Ronald to CF, find a 3 WAR LF "easily." bonus if you find one *within the system*.

    that statement was just stupid.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

    “I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    This is exactly why I was not very excited when they extended him, despite folks saying it made him "even more valuable." I'd have preferred that they didn't extend him and let him hit FA as scheduled.

    I do think if he recovers to past level of offense and his defense holds then he still can be traded this offseason or at the deadline if the Braves fall out. I don't really see much chance the Braves would move him in season, because he has present value. Unless it was part of a bigger move.
    The extension has some decline priced in. It buys out what would have been his first free agent season (2021) at 8M which is the price for a 1 win player. So if Ender is a 2 wins player in 2021 the extension is a bargain. The second free agent season bought out (2022 when he will be 31) is even better since it is an option at 9M. We can not exercise it if any decline is much steeper than appears likely. It was pretty much a no brainer of a deal from the club's perspective.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 04-10-2019 at 10:07 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    of course it's not impossible. it's just extremely, overwhelmingly unlikely. he wasn't even close to that.. in AA last year.
    if you move Ronald to CF, find a 3 WAR LF "easily." bonus if you find one *within the system*.

    that statement was just stupid.

    Inciarte had a 79 wRC+ in AA as a 19 year old, in only 109 PA. I'm not sure its "overwhelmingly unlikely" he could put up a 90 wRC+ in the majors as a 21 year old.

    I also somewhat doubt that Inciarte will be a 2.9 win player this year or next. But even if you do believe that, there are 32 guys who put up 2.8 wins or more last season. I don't find it exceedingly unlikely the Braves could acquire someone who could do that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    The extension has some decline priced in. It buys out what would have been his first free agent season (2021) at 8M which is the price for a 1 win player. So if Ender is a 2 wins player in 2021 the extension is a bargain. The second free agent season bought out (2022 when he will be 31) is even better since it is an option at 9M. We can not exercise it if any decline is much steeper than appears likely. It was pretty much a no brainer of a deal from the club's perspective.
    And yet, I'm not particularly thrilled by the prospect of paying Inciarte 8.7 million (plus 1m buyout) in 2021. Paying a 1 WAR player fair market value to be a 1 WAR player isn't a good thing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Inciarte had a 79 wRC+ in AA as a 19 year old, in only 109 PA. I'm not sure its "overwhelmingly unlikely" he could put up a 90 wRC+ in the majors as a 21 year old.

    I also somewhat doubt that Inciarte will be a 2.9 win player this year or next. But even if you do believe that, there are 32 guys who put up 2.8 wins or more last season. I don't find it exceedingly unlikely the Braves could acquire someone who could do that.
    with a .347 BABIP, a 25.7% k-rate, and a 4.6% BB rate. he would get torn to shreds in the major leagues.
    i'm not sure what 21 year old pache has to do with this. the post i'm citing mentioned replacing ender *today* with pache, since "Pache could arguably replace his defense TODAY, so even if his bat doesn't develop further are you really losing much if you already believe you're only paying for Ender to play defense and hit 7th or 8th?"

    yes. you are losing a lot. that's the answer.

    and that ender is "easily replaceable from within." neither of these things are remotely true. so your point of going out there and trying to trade assets for a 2.8-win guy is moot since this specifically stated "easily from WITHIN."

    if pache were inserted into the lineup *today* he would be an awful hitter. however little ender has given you on offense the last couple of years, pache would be *much worse* than that right now. of course pache can develop further and improve as a hitter. that has literally nothing to do with what i said, tho, so i'm not sure where that point is going.

    it's still very unlikely pache will be able to put up 90 wRC+ by next year tho. like there's almost no shot based on what we've seen.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    And yet, I'm not particularly thrilled by the prospect of paying Inciarte 8.7 million (plus 1m buyout) in 2021. Paying a 1 WAR player fair market value to be a 1 WAR player isn't a good thing.
    it also isn't a bad thing. and if he can be more than a 1-WAR player? then what? it's far from a bad deal no matter how you spin it.
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    all this inciarte stuff should be in the over reactionary whine thread.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

    “I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    it also isn't a bad thing. and if he can be more than a 1-WAR player? then what? it's far from a bad deal no matter how you spin it.
    All of these deals involve some risk to the club. But most of the time they work out in the club's favor. So the team should do them and not let the occasional one that doesn't work out deter them.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    all this inciarte stuff should be in the over reactionary whine thread.
    he looks FINNISH if you ask me
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    All of these deals involve some risk to the club. But most of the time they work out in the club's favor. So the team should do them and not let the occasional one that doesn't work out deter them.
    and it's not like a deal like this is some kind of albatross if it doesn't work out.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

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