Top end pitching is certainly more valuable at the trade deadline due to the fact that elite pitchers can impact playoff series more than a single hitter. Look no further than the difference in trade returns for JD Martinez and Yu Darvish this last season.
Problem is, the return for Darvish is a drop in the bucket compared to the overall value an organization realizes when a prospect becomes a contributor for 6 cost controlled years.
Top position prospects (FV 50+) have shown in various studies to produce almost 2x as much value as similarly rated pitching prospects. That extra value is almost entirely due to the injury rate of pitchers.
If you’re acquiring pitchers over hitters just to maximize the value received in trading them 10 years after you draft them...well...you’re doing it wrong.
I'm advocating drafting/developing pitching so you never have to spend big money on pitching because as you said the injury risk is higher. The goal should be to heavily draft pitching and then use them up to arb-1. If they are valueable you trade them and replace. Spend money on position players.
Last edited by thethe; 01-01-2018 at 07:53 PM.
Natural Immunity Croc
I still can't begin to understand why the Padres are trying to be the high bidder on Hosmer for 7 years.
thethe (01-03-2018)
I'll play devil's advocate.
They've had a decline in attendance 3 years in a row
They're hopeful of competing in the next couple of years and he's only 28
Being in Petco they may value homerun hitters more if guys aren't running in to homeruns as in other hitter's parks.
Wil Myers and Hosmer could solidify the #3 and #4 spots in the lineup for the next 6 years while they add complimentary parts around them
They have barely any money committed long term
Hosmer is fools gold of the most damaging kind. He's an every other year 1B who has historically been short on power at a power position during a peak power time in baseball. His WAR has been up and down and his best (4.0) last year was still half a point below Freeman even with 157 more PA. He gets credit for his defense but it isn't really that great.
Anyone buying on Hosmer is buying his potential to get better. But I believe that he's headed to Alex Gordon territory after he's in his 30's with the difference being Gordon plays a slightly less critical offensive position.
Julio3000 (01-03-2018)
This overlooks the fact that a team in the Padres position (in particular) likely needs to go out and sign a name at some point in the event they're serious about contending in a couple years to be taken seriously as a landing spot for other free-agents. The Hosmer situation is a lot like where the Gnats were years ago when they went out and overpaid for Jayson Werth. San Diego has several pieces from within that are beginning to get close - including some pretty interesting arms. If they have a few anchors in place in Hosmer, Myers, and Renfroe with Urias and Tatis coming and intriguing arms like Lamet, Gore, Quantril, Morejon, and Espinoza getting closer future free-agents (particularly veteran Pitchers) are liable to give them more consideration in the future if they've shown they're serious about competing.
I'm not disagreeing that it's likely to turn into an overpay by any means, but at some point they're going to have to show that they're willing to pay for some pieces at some point to be taken seriously - otherwise they become the Rays several years too late (since there are so many better run front offices these days). Like everyone else, the Padres just got the $50 million payout from the MLBAM sale - if you consider that "found money", all of a sudden you're just spending $90-$100 million for 7 years of Hosmer. That doesn't seem like a huge mistake, and certainly shouldn't hamstring them.
Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...
Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?
Nothing quite like pseudo-accounting to justify bad signings haha.
It's one of the most useful tools in a rosterbater's arsenal!
I wouldn't sign Hosmer to that deal, but there are worse deals out there and Hosmer at least has age on his side.