Yeah, never mind that we reaped a huge bounty when we knew we weren't going to sign him. I was a fan, but when he was traded that was it. I'm excited about the future. As for Inciarte, I'd rather just roll with him.Originally Posted by UNCBlue012
Yeah, never mind that we reaped a huge bounty when we knew we weren't going to sign him. I was a fan, but when he was traded that was it. I'm excited about the future. As for Inciarte, I'd rather just roll with him.
JohnAdcox (12-15-2015)
Some of us were fans of Heywood before he was a Brave........
"Donald Trump will serve a second term as president of the United States.
It’s over."
Little Thethe Nov 19, 2020.
JohnAdcox (12-15-2015)
when he was in high school?
Coach_Chris (12-15-2015), The Chosen One (12-15-2015)
I'm sorry this is so complicated for you. Maybe it will help to break it down a bit.
Parts of defensive value that rely on range, arm strength, and other natural gifts peak around age 24-25. So yes, we have likely seen the best defense guys like Heyward, Simmons and Inciarte will ever play. They may match it for another year or 2, but they will not likely increase their defensive value. That is the definition of "peak", in case you were wondering. Maybe jot it down on a napkin and keep it next to your PC?
Things like learning a new position, and not making boneheaded errors can pretty much improve at any age. Guys learn new positions all the time, at almost all ages, and I'm sure even you can understand that a 38 year old will be better at 1B with a few months of reps than he was on the first day he put on the new mitt. A guy can also get less lazy as he matures if that's the reason his defense is underwhelming.
I'm not sure which camp Soler falls into, but I hope now you can at least begin to wrap your mind around some of these very complicated and abstract ideas about defensive value.
Last edited by Enscheff; 12-15-2015 at 11:51 AM.
Thanks for the condescension, but what you typed out still doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
You're basically just guessing that Inciarte has played enough CF that he doesn't make mistakes and that Soler might be so lazy that simply putting forth better effort could turn him into an average defender.
I get that defense peaks early generally speaking. I just don't get why Soler doesn't fall into that group. He's been playing RF for a while. And if he does because he's been lazy so far, then that's another reason I'm not sure I want him.
Which is exactly why I said I don't know what group Soler falls into. Is he bad because he lacks the tools to play good OF defense? Is he lazy? Does he need more reps? Will any of that be improved with mental maturity?
And stop acting like you weren't acting condescending in the post I quoted.
I said nothing personally toward anyone in that post, and certainly not toward you since, as far as I can tell, you weren't involved in the discussion at that point.
I don't really have all the information on Soler, either. But some seem to believe they do, as it has been stated that Soler's defense will improve and that he can be decent defensively. That is what I was taking issue with. It's just that I'm having to defend, on one hand, that Inciarte could actually improve and on the other hand, that it's not a guarantee Soler will. It's odd.
Since Heyward didn't sign for $200 million I wonder if Dave Stewart is regretting the Miller trade now.
Seriously though...glad Heyward got his payday and glad he chose the Cubs over the Cardinals and Nats, but given what the team got for him in the end I still think the Braves made the right decision by a lot.
Physical tools peak around age 24-25, while mental tools peak at a MUCH later age. A player's overall peak around 27 corresponds to their physical tools being in their prime at the same time their mential tools have sufficiently matured to the point the physical tools can be used effectively. As they age into their 30s, their physical tools erode, but their mental tools continue to mature, thus mitigating the impact of losing some physical gifts.
You see it with pitchers as they age, and you see it with hitters as well. I suspect the reason defenders start to decline as soon as their physical skills start to decline is because there simply isn't as much of a mental aspect to playing defense. The hitter/pitcher conflict is extremely dynamic, but catching a ball and throwing it to the right place is significantly less involved mentally. Therefore, losing a step physically hurts on defense more because there is less potential impact from additional mental tool growth.
So if Soler is lazy, or just dumb, I would expect he could improve his defense through his mid-20s. If he is just too slow or has poor reaction times, I would expect his defense to get even worse once he hits 25. So the question with Soler becomes: is his poor defense due to lacking mental or physical tools? If mental his defense can improve through his mid-20s; if physical, not so much. A guy like Inciarte has probably learned all the nuances about the position, and probably isn't a lazy defender, so he isn't likely to improve based on mental growth. He is more likely to decline defensively as his physical tools decline.
Last edited by Enscheff; 12-15-2015 at 01:03 PM.
Yes, defensive skills peaks early, that is pretty much known. And I've seen a lot of talk about this regarding Heyward and now Ender that their value isn't likely to be as great going forward because their defense will likely get worse. This is true but it's also true for most all players. Look at Justin Upton who has gone for an ok defender to a really bad defender. It universally effects all players to a degree. Obviously there are exceptions.
Regarding Soler. It's okat to be optimistic about his defense going forward that he can somehow improve out there. But odds are he really is that bad and will continue to get worse.
I guess I just don't get why we're making assumptions that Inciarte is smart and has all the nuances down, while Soler may just need more experience. Inciarte is 24 and has been playing OF in the minors since he was 17, split between all 3 positions. Soler is 23 and has been playing solely RF in the minors since he was 20, and I assume he was playing RF before that as well.
I just don't really understand why it's assumed that Inciarte has maximized his ability while Soler hasn't even come close to his (not saying you're saying exactly this; again, you just entered the discussion). Is it because Inciarte is very good, while Soler is terrible, so the assumption is Soler has more room to grow?
Because it's likely that both won't really improve much going forward. I would at least put an equal % chance on both.
b/c Ender is at a 9/10 so it would be really hard for him to improve. Soler is at a 3/10 so it's much easier for him to improve.
Most of what I've read suggest Soler has the foot speed and arm to play well on D. It just sounds like the effort and technique isn't there. The question is will he ever put in the work?
When comparing those players I don't think you compare D. I think you ask is it more likely that Ender's offense improves significantly or that Soler's defense improves?
The braves could also compare carrying costs.....Ender's Defense plus lack of power hitting is likely to be cheaper in arb and FA than Solers power (potential power).
Braves could also compare availability.....if they believe in Mallex they may decide the drop off from Ender to Mallex is much less than the gain from Markakis/Olivera to Soler.
I honestly have no idea. From the Cubs POV it looks like they have a ton of talented OFs that are ready now. I'd prefer those guys over Soler.
I'm all for the experiment of a bunch of good defenders that can hit but only have 10-15 HR power.
I agree with the first line. Odds are we know what we're going to get out of Ender, which is the safe bet. The intrigue is what you COULD end up getting out of Soler. He had a lot of problems with his ankles and legs last year and he looked like Andre Dawson at the end of his career. The chances of him being better defensively when healthy are pretty good. Will he put in the work? He has a clause in his contract where he can revert to the regular arbitration process if he feels he can make more money. So there is some monetary motivation there.
The downside to Soler, and what would scare me is he may be injury prone.
2. high K rate
3. poor defense
4. poor base runner
5. wild arm
But everyone seems to agree that Soler's ceiling isn't anywhere close to a 10. If it's more like a 5-6, as scouting reports seem to suggest, then he really doesn't have that much room to improve. Again, my issue is the assumption that it's easier for Soler to improve simply because he's currently much worse.
If Inciarte was a .750 OPS guy and Soler had already put up a .900 OPS, I wouldn't say that it's much easier for Inciarte to improve his offense further because it's a 5/10 while Soler's is a 9/10. Because both would be similarly close to their ceiling already. I just don't think Soler has the tools to be good defensively. If his issue is that he's dumb or lazy, that's not likely to be corrected easily. If it's ability, it almost certainly won't be corrected.
And the problem is that Inciarte's offense could improve, and that would be great...but it doesn't need to improve. Soler's defense and offense both need to improve, and by a pretty good bit, to even get to Inciarte's current level. So if Soler was already as valuable as Inciarte, then this would be a better discussion. But as it stands, Soler has to improve quite a bit to reach Inciarte, and even then, Inciarte could improve further.
I, too, might prefer McKinney or Happ in a deal, especially if we can get them for cheaper.
Last edited by smootness; 12-15-2015 at 04:06 PM.
6. Legit 30-35 HR potential. Unless you're acquiring Mike Trout almost everyone has flaws. Soler is going to be a force in the middle of some teams lineup and I trade Enciarte for him any day of the week.
If we truly have the opportunity to get a potential RH power bat to hit behind Freeman for years we have to do it. I'll gladly take lesser defense in RF to have the impact bat
Last edited by emk418; 12-15-2015 at 05:24 PM.
Heyward (12-15-2015)
Emk, this is Pedro Alvarez, pedro this is Emk..
I wanted to introduce you two.. Emk loves power hitting guys who don't play good defense and strikes out a lot..
I think Soler's future is in LF...which may be fine, but I just don't think you can put him in RF right now.
I agree that everyone has flaws, though. I'm fine with Soler's K-rate, I don't think it's a huge concern. My question is whether or not he can become the .900+ OPS bat who is slightly below-average defensively that his talent suggests he can become. If he can, that's a 6+ WAR guy. If the bat never fully develops and his defense stays close to what it is right now, though, then he's basically useless.
So it's a tough call. I'm totally fine with demanding a ton from the Cubs, since they seem to like Inciarte a lot. But I wouldn't do it unless you can get something else noteworthy in addition to Soler...perhaps Inciarte + Jenkins for Soler + Happ.
That's the thing...trying to project guys like Inciarte and Soler is all about potential. Nothing Inciarte has ever done or shown suggests he will improve much offensively. The only time he ever posted an .800+ OPS was in the hitter friendly PCL in AAA and some winter league stuff.
Soler has a career .924 OPS in the minors, including some insane stats when he was 22 in AA/AAA where he posted something like a 1.100 OPS. There is an article floating around the interwebz detailing how Soler has some of the highest exit velocity on batted balls. Yes we are looking at very small sample sizes, but the potential to be a .900-1.000 OPS guy in the 4th hole of the lineup is certainly there. It's not like he always had a super high K rate either. His MiLB K rate is right at 17%, so it's not like he is Baez who has ALWAYS struck out at a 25% rate.
As far as injuries and defense goes, who knows. That's where more of the lottery ticket aspect comes in. As long as he can be adequate in LF, that's all the Braves really need. Will he always be hurt? Possibly. He certainly has a poor track record as far as health is concerned. Heyward went through a long stretch where he was super fragile, and that seems to have worked itself out...maybe Soler will be the same in that respect.
At the end of the day if Mallex and Inciarte are both starting-caliber CFers it makes little sense to keep both around when there is zero impact offensive talent in the system. And by impact I don't mean someone like Olivera, Swanson or Albies...I mean someone that has a legitimate shot at batting behind Freeman in the 4 hole on a championship caliber club.
Think about it this way, if the return for Miller had been Soler, Swanson and Blair, I seriously doubt anyone would be even considering finding a trade to get Inciarte on this team. We would be giddily waiting to see what Soler turns into.
Last edited by Enscheff; 12-15-2015 at 06:01 PM.
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