What's the difference?Originally Posted by Enscheff
What's it matter if the Braves develop their own Archer or trade pitching prospects for Archer? Isn't the end result the same?
By your own logic, pitching prospects are so volatile, it would make sense to parlay a couple of them for a guy like Archer.
It would probably cost Acuna or Albies plus Allard or something like that, if we could get them without Acuna or Albies, i'd try making a play for him.
JohnAdcox (07-05-2017)
And thats why you try and develop pitching because when you have a Sale or Archer you can ask for a kings ransom.
Natural Immunity Croc
Archer is good and cheap through 2021. One would argue that the whole point of prospects would be to have someone like Archer.
But its' likely to cost a lot and not sure you want to start taking on the injury risk until the rest of your team is ready.
Because pitching prospects are more risky and less valuable. If the goal is to acquire prospects as trade assets, best to not acquire the type most likely to drop like flies.
There is a reason pitchers have been easier to acquire than position players. The Braves are the only team who values them like they do.
Yes, if the FO is smart enough to trade them at max value. As evidenced by Teheran, the Braves FO is not likely to do so.
Throw in JJ and Horacio before them. Odds aren't good this would happen.
No one knows what was offered for JT last trade deadline. But would have been smart to do it.
Yes. This is accomplished by analyzing how many losses were one-run games. That difference is made up by improved rotation, bullpen, bench and important positions (starting with 3B, C and RF - going against forum hearsay, because a serious team could contend and do damage with Kemp). This actually sounds like history repeating. In '91, nobody was predicting a decent, let alone a WS Braves team. What did they do? Identified 3B, C and CF as areas to improve, along with overall team defense. Meantime, substantial upgrades occurred from Glavine, Smoltz and Avery, which could not have been expected. (Thankfully, Enscheff and his resident boot lickers weren't around back then.)
They counted on Colon and Dickey to be like they had been, which might've been enough to propel them into a WC position. Realistically, they had to sell this proposition because of the new digs. We all knew this, but let's not pretend that everybody knew what would translate on the field. (Before somebody interjects, there were loud voices to trade Inciate and Vizcaino, 2-year deal for Johnson was "good" and even some repeated buffoonery here about moving Freeman. This gist of all of that was accept uncritically by the "faithful.")
The timetable is off slightly, but as we all know, the serious prospect are at lower levels. Trust. Post 2019 will be a very good time to be a Braves fans.
What a bold prediction...the Braves will be good in 2019 and later.
Brilliant analysis!!
Oh wait, that's what everyone has been saying for a few years now. But thanks for the amazing insight.
Dalyn (07-04-2017)
While this is nitpicking, how do you figure Archer will cost as much or more than Sale? Sale is an actual Ace with a long track record of being an Ace, to go along with a great contract. As much as I like Archer, he's been more mid rotation pitcher than an actual Ace.
Why on earth would you think those players were ever particularly valuable?
My strong suspicion is that there was no Teheran offer on the table that you would have liked very much. I suspect he's more valuable an asset as a third or fourth starter than anything the Braves could have gotten in return.
Sale is the better pitcher. But by virtue of his contract Archer has more trade value.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
I don't get the Archer and Grey love. Neither have been dominant lately. Talented? Yes of course. Why pay that much for that type of pitcher. Right now, put Julio at the #3, Folty and Newk at #1...we just need a #4&5. We easily have that and could just pick up Dickey's option for the 5 if needed or Wisler. I just don't see the need unless it's a reasonable deal. If it's a king's ransom (which it usually is at the deadline)....no thanks.
A team that is trying to win the world series is going to value sale more IMO.
I like both pitchers but I'm letting another team overpay.
Archer's ERA has hovered around 4 now for a year and a half. What makes him so valuable? Is it his K rate?
Tapate50 (07-04-2017)
Sale is contractually controlled on team-friendly terms through 2019. Archer through 2021 on team-friendly terms. That accounts for the difference in trade value. Is there a team/GM out there who would discount 2020 & 2021 substantially enough to prefer Sale. I doubt it. They all realize that going all in for a particular year is a fool's proposition given how any given 5 or 7 game series is a crapshoot. The smarter way to play things is to try to keep your competitive window open for an extended period of time and maximize your number of rolls of the dice. Even that does not guarantee anything.
Last edited by nsacpi; 07-04-2017 at 09:21 AM.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Sale increases your odds IMO more than the extra years of archer
sayin so don't make it so
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote